IDP DRAFT STRATEGY
By Mark Cuebas, NFL Draft Bible
Playing Fantasy Football and using Individual Defensive Players (IDP) in lieu of team defenses is becoming increasingly popular. Owners who use the IDP system draft defensive players as they would offensive players according to their roster requirements. Most IDP leagues that I have seen employ 1 DB, 1 DL, and 1 DB/DL. The DL (Defensive Lineman) position is a bit of a misnomer as either a defensive lineman or a linebacker may occupy this slot. The DB (Defensive Back) position is likewise filled using either a cornerback or a safety. The DL/DB (Defensive Flex) position is filled using any defensive player.
It is important to consider the scoring system that your league uses when evaluating the defensive talent. This is probably the most important rule of fantasy football on both sides of the ball. Generally, the categories used for defensive scoring will include: sacks, interceptions, passes defended, tackles, forced fumbles, return yardage, etc. Be prepared, for I have seen leagues where ½ tackles and ½ sacks are awarded as well!
Take special notice whether return yardage is awarded to the individual player. This is significant in that it will also affect how you value your offensive talent as well. For example, in 2006, owners in leagues that used team defensives were probably not especially impressed by New England RB Laurance Maroney. His rushing numbers from the 2006 season (745 yards and 6 touchdowns), as well as his receiving numbers (194 yards and 1 touchdown) were impressive for a rookie, but borderline for a number two running back. Factor in his return yardage totals (783) and he suddenly becomes a bit more palatable. For the sake of this article we will consider the following scoring format:
Tackle sole (1)
Tackle assist (.5)
Sack (3)
Interception (2)
Passes Defended (1)
Fumble Forced (2)
Fumble Recovered (2)
Touchdown (6)
Safety (2)
Return Yardage (1 per 10 yards)
In this format you can quickly identify two things. The first is how high return yardage is valued. This makes it all but imperative to draft a DB that does double duty as a KR or PR.
The DB that jumps out to many due to his performance last year is Devin Hester of the Chicago Bears. His kick return (528 yards 2 TD’s) and punt return (600 yards 3 TD’s) numbers were certainly impressive. Unfortunately Hester’s tackles for the season (9) were not. Coaches that were awed by Hester’s talent and plugged him into their rosters were often times more disappointed than not. The obvious exception would have been Hester’s record setting two touchdown returns against the St. Louis Rams in week 15. However, one or two successful outings does not make a fantasy stud. Hester’s low tackle numbers make it near impossible to consider Hester for any sort of regular defensive impact. Interestingly enough the Chicago Bears are reportedly intrigued with his potential speed on offense and are rumored to be shifting him from DB to a hybrid WR/RB/KR/PR, which would certainly increase his fantasy football value from an offensive standpoint. Unfortunately, that discussion is outside the scope of this article and will be addressed at a later date.
The defensive backs that return kicks and/or punts and record tackles are significantly more valuable and as a result heavily coveted. This is where the second thing you should notice about the scoring format comes into play. In fantasy football, tackles are king. A full point a tackle used to be the norm but more and more leagues are turning to .5 point per tackle. While in any format tackles are important in this format they are doubly so. In addition you must take into account a player with a high number of tackles figures to be around the ball a great deal.
A defender’s presence around the football can reward the lucky coach with a sack or fumble recovery or perhaps even the sack/fumble recovery/touchdown trifecta.
Buffalo’s CB Terrance McGee is certainly one example of an IDP owner’s dream. In 2006 McGee recorded 63 solo tackles and 11 passes defended. He also returned kicks for 1355 yards (0 TD). By the above scoring format you can see that for the season McGee earned well over 200 points even though he went the season without a TD.
McGee has been fantasy gold since his sophomore season when he replaced an injured Troy Vincent. Although his size (5’9) limits his interceptions he certainly does well enough in other areas to overlook it. It will be interesting to see what the loss of Nate Clements in the offseason (San Francisco) means now that McGee is the number one corner in Buffalo. If past success is any indicator McGee is in for a monster season.
Other examples of successful defensive back/returners are the Jet’s CB Justin Miller and Tennessee’s unsuspended CB Pacman Jones. If you are unable to secure one of the elite few DB’s that return kicks or punts, all is not lost.
A fantasy coach can do quite well with the likes of Buccaneers CB Ronde Barber (84 solo tackles) or Bears CB Charles Tillman (68 solo tackles). Both of these corners are usually able to deliver tackle numbers almost like that of a linebacker. Generally speaking though ,when evaluating defensive backs for tackles and defensive stats you will want to consider the safeties first. Safeties like Arizona’s SS Adrian Wilson (74 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 INT, 7 passes defended, 1 TD) and Pittsburgh’s SS Troy Polmalu (57 solo tackles, 1 sack, 3 interceptions, 7 passes defended) are IDP Studs due to their tackles as well as their great all around stats.
Linebackers are the key to IDP leagues for their high tackle numbers and are most often drafted to fill the DL position. Linebackers like the Dolphins Zach Thomas (103 solo tackles), DeMeco Ryans (125 solo tackles) of the Texans and the Bears Lance Briggs (109 solo tackles) are all important players to consider on draft day. If you are in a league that values sacks more heavily than tackles, then a linebacker like Shawne Merriman (17 sacks) of the Chargers might figure more into your plans. If high sack totals are truly your friend, you will want to consider defensive ends prominently such as Miami’s Zach Taylor (13.5 sacks, 40 solo tackles) or Carolina’s Julius Peppers (13 sacks, 48 solo tackles).
In the end, it is truly your scoring system that will determine who you draft and when you draft them. If you are converting your league to an IDP league this season you should plug the numbers from last year’s stat leaders into the newly proposed scoring format and see who falls where. This should be extremely useful in establishing a guide to what you are looking for in terms of positions. Once you compare that with the points generated by offensive stat leaders in the same scoring system you should have a good idea when to draft what positions. Put it all together and you’ve got yourself your draft day IDP cheat sheet
For more on Mark Cuebas, check our "Press Releases" section on the homepage of nfldraftbible.com to learn about our working relationship with fieldposition.com
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
FFI EXCLUSIVE: FANTASY ALERT!
FANTASY ALERT: MOSS, PATS WIDE OUTS OVERRATED
By Brad Kurtzberg, NFL Draft Bible
This off-season, the New England Patriots made a lot of noise by acquiring a new receiving corps, headed by former Raiders and Vikings standout Randy Moss. The Patriots also added Dante Stallworth and Wes Welker to give them one of the strongest group of wide outs in the NFL. Fantasy football owners have been drooling at the prospect of getting one of these receivers on their roster, but be careful: the Patriots receivers may be one of the best groups in the league, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will translate over into productive fantasy numbers.
Let’s face it, even with Tom Brady at quarterback, there’s only one football and only one player can catch it on any given play. As a result, New England may have one of the most prolific pass offenses in recent memory, but the only fantasy beneficiary may be Brady himself. It’s not that the receivers won’t put up good numbers, but don’t expect them to be much higher than their recent career averages. Don’t get caught up in the hype and draft these guys too soon.
We will be monitoring this situation during training camp as each of these three new faces has issues to deal with. As talented as Randy Moss is, he also causes problems for a lot of teams, including his own. Moss gets unhappy when his team is losing or if he feels he isn’t getting the ball enough (which is almost always). He has been known to loaf on the field, to take plays off or even to leave a game early. Bill Belichick is a no-nonsense coach, so it’s likely at some point this year that sparks will fly. Will Moss really change and fit in rather than stick out? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it all being smooth sailing. If he stays healthy and keeps his mind on the game, Moss can still catch 70-80 passes and 10 touchdowns, but the days of 100+ catches and 17 touchdowns are probably a thing of the past.
Donte Stallworth is a great deep threat with blinding speed and he instantly upgraded the Patriots receiving corps. However, there is one problem that seems to haunt Stallworth; staying healthy. Some scouts say that Stallworth runs so fast, he pops his own hamstrings. In his five-year NFL career, the Tennessee alum has only played an entire season twice. If he can prove to stay healthy, Stallworth could match his career-high of 70 catches but that is a mighty big “if”. He will not be the number one receiver on the field (Moss will be), which means he will not be the first option on most plays, which also means he will not be facing the opposition’s top corner most of the time either. Stallworth will do just fine if he stays on the field, but don’t expect his statistics to take a huge jump.
Wes Welker may be the least affected by his new team and new role. He will continue to be the third receiver and will line up in the slot on obvious passing downs. Welker should thrive with a better quarterback to get him the ball than what he had in Miami. Last season he had 67 catches with just one touchdown. That number will probably go up a bit, but don’t expect it to jump past five. Unless you are in a league that gives a decent number of points for catches and yards, Welker has limited fantasy value.
New England also recently re-signed WR/CB Troy Brown. Brown may have to fight to make the roster, but he is a smart veteran who knows Belichick’s system and has the confidence of Tom Brady. There will be some role for Brown if he makes the team.
The Patriots also have tight ends Ben Watson and David Thomas, both of whom are quality receivers. Last season, Watson caught 49 passes and Thomas 11. The tight ends may see their roles reduced with the new talent at wideout, but don’t expect them to disappear entirely. Kevin Faulk will also make his share of receptions out of the backfield.
On the field, the New England Patriots will benefit greatly because of their new receiving corps. Fantasy owners, however, will probably see the biggest benefit go to Tom Brady and only a small increase for players like Moss, Stallworth and Welker. By all means, take the Patriots receivers…just don’t take them too soon.
Brad Kurtzberg is a Senior Writer for the NFL Draft Bible and author of “Shorthanded: The Untold Story of the Seals: Hockey’s Most Colorful Team”
Email: Brad@nfldraftbible.com
By Brad Kurtzberg, NFL Draft Bible
This off-season, the New England Patriots made a lot of noise by acquiring a new receiving corps, headed by former Raiders and Vikings standout Randy Moss. The Patriots also added Dante Stallworth and Wes Welker to give them one of the strongest group of wide outs in the NFL. Fantasy football owners have been drooling at the prospect of getting one of these receivers on their roster, but be careful: the Patriots receivers may be one of the best groups in the league, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will translate over into productive fantasy numbers.
Let’s face it, even with Tom Brady at quarterback, there’s only one football and only one player can catch it on any given play. As a result, New England may have one of the most prolific pass offenses in recent memory, but the only fantasy beneficiary may be Brady himself. It’s not that the receivers won’t put up good numbers, but don’t expect them to be much higher than their recent career averages. Don’t get caught up in the hype and draft these guys too soon.
We will be monitoring this situation during training camp as each of these three new faces has issues to deal with. As talented as Randy Moss is, he also causes problems for a lot of teams, including his own. Moss gets unhappy when his team is losing or if he feels he isn’t getting the ball enough (which is almost always). He has been known to loaf on the field, to take plays off or even to leave a game early. Bill Belichick is a no-nonsense coach, so it’s likely at some point this year that sparks will fly. Will Moss really change and fit in rather than stick out? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it all being smooth sailing. If he stays healthy and keeps his mind on the game, Moss can still catch 70-80 passes and 10 touchdowns, but the days of 100+ catches and 17 touchdowns are probably a thing of the past.
Donte Stallworth is a great deep threat with blinding speed and he instantly upgraded the Patriots receiving corps. However, there is one problem that seems to haunt Stallworth; staying healthy. Some scouts say that Stallworth runs so fast, he pops his own hamstrings. In his five-year NFL career, the Tennessee alum has only played an entire season twice. If he can prove to stay healthy, Stallworth could match his career-high of 70 catches but that is a mighty big “if”. He will not be the number one receiver on the field (Moss will be), which means he will not be the first option on most plays, which also means he will not be facing the opposition’s top corner most of the time either. Stallworth will do just fine if he stays on the field, but don’t expect his statistics to take a huge jump.
Wes Welker may be the least affected by his new team and new role. He will continue to be the third receiver and will line up in the slot on obvious passing downs. Welker should thrive with a better quarterback to get him the ball than what he had in Miami. Last season he had 67 catches with just one touchdown. That number will probably go up a bit, but don’t expect it to jump past five. Unless you are in a league that gives a decent number of points for catches and yards, Welker has limited fantasy value.
New England also recently re-signed WR/CB Troy Brown. Brown may have to fight to make the roster, but he is a smart veteran who knows Belichick’s system and has the confidence of Tom Brady. There will be some role for Brown if he makes the team.
The Patriots also have tight ends Ben Watson and David Thomas, both of whom are quality receivers. Last season, Watson caught 49 passes and Thomas 11. The tight ends may see their roles reduced with the new talent at wideout, but don’t expect them to disappear entirely. Kevin Faulk will also make his share of receptions out of the backfield.
On the field, the New England Patriots will benefit greatly because of their new receiving corps. Fantasy owners, however, will probably see the biggest benefit go to Tom Brady and only a small increase for players like Moss, Stallworth and Welker. By all means, take the Patriots receivers…just don’t take them too soon.
Brad Kurtzberg is a Senior Writer for the NFL Draft Bible and author of “Shorthanded: The Untold Story of the Seals: Hockey’s Most Colorful Team”
Email: Brad@nfldraftbible.com
WELCOME TO THE FFI BLOG!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Insiders Blog in affiliation with the NFL Draft Bible. In addition to the free daily content we will be providing on our website, we will also be posting additional fantasy football information right here on our FFI Blog all season long.
We don't sleep so you win!
-RIC
We don't sleep so you win!
-RIC
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