By Brad Kurtzberg, Fantasy Football Insiders Senior Writer
Most fantasy leagues have reached the playoffs by now and those that aren’t are in the final week of their regular season. Little things can have an effect on a player’s stats so check out the matchups carefully. In the NFL, there is still the drama as to whether or not the Patriots will be perfect and the Dolphins perfectly awful to go along with the usual playoff races which are coming into clearer focus each week. Be aware of the playoff status of your star players, some of them may be benched after their NFL team has clinched a playoff spot or has been eliminated from contention. Here is a look at this week’s matchups which will help you win your fantasy league.
Thursday 8:15 PM ET
Denver at Houston
These two 6-7 teams have mathematical chances of making the playoffs but they would have to win out and get some help. More realistically, they are hoping to finish with a winning season and are working towards building for next year. The Broncos crushed the Chiefs last week while Houston downed the NFC South-leading Bucs. Both teams are looking to keep their momentum going.
Stud: Jay Cutler, QB Denver. Cutler had a very strong game last week and continues to show he has the potential to develop into a very good NFL quaterback someday. The Texans pass defense is 14th in the league and continues to be up and down. Look for a good day from Cutler, especial throwing to Brandon Stokley.
Dud: Ron Dayne, RB Houston. Dayne is not healthy and his ankle injury will slow him down. This is a shame because the Broncos’ run defense is awful so whoever does run the ball a lot for the Texans should do well.
Sleeper: Andre Johnson, WR Houston. Johnson is an elite wide receiver when healthy and one of the top fantasy WRs in the league. Last week, he grabbed 9 passes for only 82 yards and a TD, giving him six TDs in six games this year. Johnson will be up against CB Dre Bly which should be a great matchup to watch, but Johnson had a five inch height advantage and should be able to exploit it with regularity.
Saturday 8:15 PM
Cincinnati at San Francisco
The Bengals and 49ers sounded like a matchup full of playoff implications when the schedule was released in April. It didn’t quite work out that way as inconsistency and injuries derailed both teams. The Bengals have struggled to stop anybody while the Niners have had trouble scoring all season long. On Saturday, they will be starting third-string QB, Shaun Hill, an undrafted free agent who would be making his first NFL start.
Stud: Rudi Johnson, RB Cincinnati. Johnson has scored in three straight games and had more than 90 yards rushing against the Rams last week. The 49ers struggle to stop the run, allowing 123.5 yards per game, ranking them 25th in the league. Johnson is getting healthy, the 49ers defense is not.
Dud: Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be starting Hill this week in your fantasy league. The Bengals pass defense is nothing special but they will blitz Hill and keep him under pressure most of the game. The 49ers offense hasn’t put up good fantasy numbers regardless of who was playing QB.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB Cincinnati. Palmer hasn’t thrown a TD pass in his last two games but even in an off year, he’s too good to keep off the scoreboard for too long. Look for Palmer to get back on track against the Niners this week.
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo at Cleveland
These two surprising teams are in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. The Browns hold the second Wild Card at 8-5 and Buffalo is just one game back. A win for the Bills would give them a major edge in tiebreakers. The Bills exploded offensively last week against Miami. Cleveland just got by the Jets in a sloppy game in which the Brown played down to the level of their opponent but they still found a way to win.
Stud: Derek Anderson, QB Cleveland. Anderson has thrown for 2 TD passes in each of the last three games. He has 26 TDs and counting on the season and plenty of weapons at his disposal. The Bills’ pass defense ranks 28th in the league and they don’t get a lot of pressure on the QB. Anderson should have time to work his magic.
Dud: Cleveland Defense. No, the Bills offense is not all that explosive, but Cleveland’s defense is a fantasy dog and you should stay way if at all possible.
Sleeper: Marshawn Lynch, RB Buffalo. Lynch came back strong after his return from injury against Miami, gaining 107 yards and he needs 142 yards go reach 1,000 for the season. The Browns are 28th at stopping the run and if the weather is cold, Buffalo will run early and often.
Tennessee at Kansas City
The Chiefs have lost six straight and are looking ahead towards next year. The Titans let a 17-3 fourth quarter lead slip away last week and lost to San Diego 23-17 in OT. Now they have lost four of their last five and are on the outside looking in at the AFC Wild Card race. This is a must game for the Titans if they hope to stay in the hunt. The Chiefs can only hope to play spoiler.
Stud: LenDale White, RB Tennessee. White went over 100 yards last week and scored a TD for the second straight game. The Chiefs have been very easy to run on of late and are ranked 25th at stopping the run this year. White should be able to pound the ball and should pick up lots of yards late in the game.
Dud: Brodie Croyle, QB Kansas City. Croyle has not topped the 200 yard mark in any game this year nor has he thrown for more than one TD. The Tennessee defense ranks 8th in the league against the pass so don’t look for Croyle to have a breakout fantasy game.
Sleeper: Tony Gonzalez, TE Kansas City. Gonzalez sprained his ankle last week but stayed in the game so do check his status. He has 17 catches, a 100-plus yard game and a TD in his last two contests. The Titans have matchup problems no matter who they try to cover him with.
Baltimore at Miami
The Dolphins are 0-13 and counting. A loss here would tie them with the 1976 Bucs at 0-14. The Ravens have played some teams tough but at 4-9, they are going nowhere fast. Kyle Boller is scheduled to start despite being pulled last week. This is a game for pride because little else is at stake here.
Stud: Willis McGahee, RB Baltimore. McGahee failed to score last week for the first time in eight games. The Dolphins rank dead last in rushing defense and McGahee is one tough back who is already over 1,000 yards for the season. Look for him to pad his totals.
Dud: John Beck, QB Miami. While the Dolphins have not announced a starter yet, take this advice: stay away from either Beck or Cleo Lemon. In fact, stay away from the entire Dolphins offense if you can help it.
Sleeper: Baltimore Defense. The Miami offense is banged up and going nowhere. They rank 30th in overall yards and 27th in points and tend to be turnover prone. Baltimore’s defense is no longer dominant, but they are still very good at times and should be able to snuff the life out of the Miami attack.
N.Y. Jets at New England
This game has been given one of the largest point spreads in NFL history with the Jets a 24 ½ point underdog. This is also the rematch of “Spygate” which took place in week 1 and started the Pats on their angry way to perfection. These two coaches don’t like each other and there is some bad blood between the teams as well. Anybody here who thinks Bill Belichick won’t run up the score if he has the chance? The Jets would like nothing better than to spoil New England’s perfect season but they may lack the ability to do it.
Stud: Tom Brady, QB New England. Brady threw for 4 TDs and 399 yards against a good Steelers defense last week. Does anybody think the Jets can slow down the Brady Express? Week 1 was an effortless 3 TD, 297 yard game, look for at least that much this week.
Dud: Kellen Clemens, QB N.Y. Jets. Clemens has only four TD passes in six starts this year. He’s still learning and has shown flashes of potential. Don’t expect this to be his fantasy breakout game, though. The Pats are 4th in the league in sacks and 6th in pass defense.
Sleeper: Randy Moss, WR N.Y. Jets. Moss and Wes Welker are both good picks. The Jets pass defense isn’t all that bad, but Moss is still one of the best in the game and the Jets don’t have anybody that can stop him consistently for four quarters.
Seattle at Carolina
The Seahawks clinched the NFC West last week and have a chance to earn a first round bye in the playoffs if they stay hot and the Packers stumble down the stretch. The Panthers’ chances really ended when Jake Delhomme went down early in the season. They are 1-5 at home this year and are merely fighting to keep their jobs and Coach John Fox’s position with the team.
Stud: Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seattle. Hasselbeck is one of the better fantasy QBs out there even if he doesn’t grab as many headlines as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Brett Favre. He has 6 TDs in the last two games. Add the fact that the Panthers are last in the league in sacks and Hasselbeck should be productive again on Sunday.
Dud: Vinny Testaverde, QB Carolina. Whether it’s Vinny or Matt Moore, don’t expect much statistically from the Panthers’ QBs against the Seahawks. Seattle has been forcing a lot of turnovers lately. They would probably eat Moore alive while just keeping Testaverde’s stats below acceptable fantasy standards.
Sleeper: Bobby Engram, WR Seattle. Want a real sleeper? Try Engram. Quietly, Engram has become a key part of the Seahawks attack. He has scored TDs in back-to-back games and has 42 catches in his last six games.
Arizona at New Orleans
The Cardinals are a better football team this year under their new coaching staff but they are still learning how to win. The Saints struggled early and then have had untimely breakdowns that have kept them on the fringes of the playoff race. The loser of this game is all but done as far as the postseason is concerned but the winner still at least has a pulse. With both Deuce McAlister and Reggie Bush out, the Saints will have to rely on their passing attack more than ever.
Stud: Kurt Warner, QB Arizona. Warner has been putting up some nice fantasy numbers when he’s been healthy enough to play. This week, he should be getting back the receiving duo of Fitzgerald and Boldin which will only help his cause. The Saints are 29th against the pass and don’t have any CBs who can keep up with the Cards’ top wideouts.
Dud: New Orleans Defense. OK, neither of these defenses look to have a great day. The Saints are vulnerable where the Cards’ strength is. This will be a high scoring game.
Sleeper: Drew Brees, QB New Orleans. Brees will throw plenty and the Cardinals defense is 24th against the pass. Aaron Stecker is not a bad RB, but Brees will have a very good day Sunday.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
The Bucs lost to the Texans last week but still have control of the NFC South with three games to go. They are 4-0 in the division and look to continue their dominance over the Falcons. Atlanta has been stunned by the recent announcement that Coach Bobby Petrino will be leaving to return to the college ranks. In a year full of turmoil and uncertainty, things have been shaken up yet again in Atlanta. Chris Redman will get a start for the Falcons since Joey Harrington hasn’t played well and Byron Leftwich is hurt. Meanwhile, the Bucs should have QB Jeff Garcia back for this game.
Stud: Earnest Graham, RB Tampa Bay. Graham has been a great fantasy pickup this season. He has scored TDs in his last five games including two last week against the Texans. In three of those games, he topped 100 yards and he also adds yards by catching passes out of the backfield. Add to the mix the fact that the Falcons run defense ranks 27th in the league and it should add up to a good game for Graham.
Dud: Warrick Dunn, RB Atlanta. Dunn has a total of 20 yards in 16 carries over the last two games and is losing carries to Jerious Norwood. The Falcons offensive line hasn’t helped matters and Dunn is barely averaging three yards per carry. The Bucs run defense is in the middle of the pack but Dunn won’t be breaking free much on Sunday.
Sleeper: Joey Galloway, WR Tampa Bay. Galloway has caught 13 passes in the last two games and continues to produce despite his advanced age. With Jeff Garcia back, Galloway should have another solid game against Atlanta even going against CB DeAngelo Hall.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Two 9-4 teams battling for playoff position meet in wintry Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers maintain the inside track to win the AFC North while the Jaguars hold the top Wild Card spot in the AFC and are still mathematically alive in the AFC South. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh may meet again come January and this game pits two teams with similar offensive styles against each other.
Stud: Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger struggled a bit against New England, coming in with fewer than 200 yards and throwing for only 1 TD. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 27th in the league and is the biggest weakness of either of the these two teams in this game. Roethlisberger is due to bounce back.
Dud: Heath Miller, TE Pittsburgh. Miller has only six catches for 66 yards in his last two games and missed one game in between due to injury. The only way Miller pays off in fantasy football is to score TDs. Pittsburgh will be throwing more to its WRs and backs on Sunday as they have more favorable matchups against Jacksonville.
Sleeper: Fred Taylor, RB Jacksonville. Taylor has three straight games of 100-plus yards and has scored two TDs in those contests. The Steelers run defense is one of the best in the game but the Jaguars are a run-first team so Taylor will get his touches (although he splits them with Maurice Jones-Drew), so by the end of the day, Taylor’s numbers should be decent.
Green Bay at St. Louis
The Packers bounced back into form last week and devoured the Raiders 38-7 to clinch the NFC North. Another win and a Seahawks loss would clinch a first round bye for the Pack and keep them mathematically alive in the battle for home field in the NFC for at least one more week. The Rams have had an injury-filled season. They still aren’t sure who will start at QB. Brock Berlin was the starter last week. Marc Bulger may be ready this week and so may Gus Frerotte. With all the injuries to the Rams’ offensive line, they should all be ready. St. Louis has played better as of late but they are 1-5 at home.
Stud: Ryan Grant, RB Green Bay. In the Pack’s last five games, Grant has topped 100 yards three times and has scored 5 TDs. He also has not gained fewer than 88 yards. The Pack will continue to feed him the ball to get Grant and the offense ready to run in the playoffs. St. Louis has had trouble stopping the run all season and presently ranks 21st in that category. Look for Grant to continue his good play.
Dud: Gus Frerotte, QB St. Louis. Or Brock Berlin or Marc Bulger. The bottom line is this: the Rams o-line is beat up and the Packers will pressure the QB with KGB and Aaron Kampman. It’s better to go with RB Stephen Jackson if you want to pick a Rams’ offensive player.
Sleeper: Brett Favre, QB Green Bay. Favre returned to form last week against Oakland. The injuries he suffered against Dallas didn’t seem to affect his play much. The Rams will have trouble pressuring Favre and he should be able to throw a few long TDs on Sunday.
Sunday 4:00 PM ET
Indianapolis at Oakland
The Colts are coming off a strong win over Baltimore while the Raiders were easily handled by the Packers last week in Green Bay. Indy is still fighting to hold on to a first round bye while the Raiders are already playing for next year. RB Justin Fargas was hurt against the Pack (check status) but should play on Sunday. Expect Josh McCown to start at QB this week but JaMarcus Russell should get a start before the season is over.
Stud: Joseph Addai, RB Indianapolis. The Raiders are 31st in the league at stopping the run, allowing an average of 150.4 yards per game. Addai needs 25 yards to top 1,000 for the season and has scored 14 total TDs including three last week. Look for lots of Addai on Sunday against the Raiders.
Dud: Josh McCown, QB Oakland. McCown has an injured finger while Dante Culpepper is nursing a quad injury. The coaching staff has already announced that JaMarcus Russell will see some action this week even if he doesn’t start. Add it up and it means that McCown or whoever starts for the Raiders will be playing only part of the game and will be facing the league’s top pass defense. Stay away.
Sleeper: Peyton Manning, QB Indianapolis. Manning should be able to do at least as well as Brett Favre did last week, which was 2 TDs and 260-plus yards. Manning has plenty of weapons at his disposal and the game still means something to the Colts.
Philadelphia at Dallas
The Eagles lost a heartbreaker to the Giants last week as a last second field goal to tie the game hit the upright and was no good. The Cowboys continue to march toward home field advantage in the NFC with a 12-1 record after last week’s last minute comeback win over the Lions. Their only loss came to the Patriots which is hardly something to be ashamed of. A win and a Packer loss would clinch the top seed in the NFC for Dallas. Philly has lost three straight and their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.
Stud: Tony Romo, QB Dallas. Romo is good enough to play well even against tough defenses. He picked the Eagles apart in Philadelphia earlier this season and should do just find this time around.
Dud: Donovan McNabb, QB Philadelphia. McNabb is gutting it out and playing hurt although Philly fans still love to boo him. Teams have limited McNabb’s downfield throwing ability and the Cowboys will do likewise by putting plenty of pressure on McNabb and taking away the deep ball.
Sleeper: Brian Westbrook, RB Philadelphia. Last week, Westbrook had more than 150 total yards and a TD. If a team takes away the run, Philly will throw it to Westbrook. He is a fantasy stud and even his “off” games are better than a lot of people’s good ones.
Detroit at San Diego
At the midway point of the season, the Lions were on top of the world at 6-2 and the Chargers were struggling. Detroit hasn’t won since and Jon Kitna’s 10-win guarantee is now impossible. The Lions need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. San Diego is in the driver’s seat in the AFC West and picked up a big comeback win last week against Tennessee. A win by San Diego or a Broncos loss clinches a division title for the Chargers.
Stud: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB San Diego. LT has had an “off” season and still has more than 1,600 total yards and 14 TDs with three games to play. The Lions run defense isn’t too bad (16th in the league) but they will not be able to stop LT who can also make yards catching passes.
Dud: Jon Kitna, QB Detroit. Kitna has slowed down as the constant pounding he has absorbed all season has taken it’s toll. He has only 3 TD passes in his last four games and just one 300-plus yard game in his last 10. The Chargers defense is fourth in sacks and will increase its totals against the struggling Detroit offensive line.
Sleeper: Philip Rivers, QB San Diego. Rivers has been a disappointment this year although he won some points with his teammates for leading a gutsy comeback last week against Tennessee. The Lions pass defense is dreadful (next to last in the league) and Rivers will take advantage.
Sunday 8:15 PM ET
Washington at N.Y. Giants
The Giants held on for a big division win last week in Philadelphia while the Redskins got clutch play from backup QB Todd Collins to get past the Bears last Thursday. At least the Redskins are well rested. The Giants clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Redskins need to win all three of their remaining contests and hope that is enough to grab the final spot in the NFC.
Stud: Brandon Jacobs, RB N.Y. Giants. Jacobs is running well but he keeps fumbling, having lost four in his last seven games. When healthy, he is a strong threat to gain 100 or more yards and can take over a game. In a low scoring contest like this one should be, expect Jacobs to be a difference maker.
Dud: Todd Collins, QB Washington. Collins played very well last week, but the Giants defense is a tougher nut to crack than the Bears and the Giants will have time to prepare for Collins. Collins is likely to have decreased efficiency the longer he plays. The Giants lead the league in sacks and will put constant pressure on him.
Sleeper: Clinton Portis, RB Washington. Portis will be the focal point of the Redskins’ offense. He is catching more passes out of the backfield lately and remains an effective runner. The Giants and Redskins will be in a defensive struggle and Portis will carry the load well for Washington.
Monday 8:30 PM ET
Chicago at Minnesota
The Bears are not going back to the playoffs after falling to 5-8 while the Vikings are 7-6 and suddenly have the inside track to the second Wild Card in the NFC. With Rex Grossman hurt and Brian Griese ineffective, the Bears turn to Kyle Orton. The Vikings defense has been making big plays of late. On offense, the running game is dominant while the passing game has suddenly become efficient. Chicago is just a mess and is waiting for the season to end.
Stud: Chester Taylor, RB Minnesota. Taylor has 6 TDs and two 100-plus games in his last four weeks. The Bears run defense has been poor and both Vikings RBs should have big games on Monday night.
Dud: Adrian Peterson, RB Chicago. Peterson is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and hasn’t been able to get going since taking over for the injured Cedric Benson. The Vikings run defense is the best in the league and they are almost impossible to run against up the middle.
Sleeper: Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota. Peterson struggled last week against the 49ers. He should bounce back against the Bears mediocre run defense. In the first meeting between these teams, Peterson ran for 224 yards and 3 TDs. While he may not match those numbers, he should have a strong game.
Showing posts with label fantasy football game preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy football game preview. Show all posts
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Friday, December 7, 2007
The Black & Blue Report, Week 14
By Brad Kurtzberg, Fantasy Football Insiders
Chicago Bears—It will take nothing short of a miracle to get the Bears into this year’s playoffs. After Thursday night’s loss to Washington, the defending NFC champs are 5-8 with remaining games at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay and vs. New Orleans. The Bears would need to run the table and get plenty of help to sneak in as the second Wild Card team. Trust me, it won’t happen.
Brian Griese threw two costly picks against the Redskins on back-to-back plays. It seems that no matter who is behind center, Chicago’s offense is inconsistent and turnover prone. Griese hasn’t turned out to be that much better than Rex Grossman, having thrown 12 picks in seven starts. Regardless of how serious Grossman’s injury is, the Bears need to address the quaterback position in the offseason as neither Grossman nor Griese appear to be the answer. Griese is more valuable as a backup if the team wants him to stay.
Two reasons for Brian Urlacher’s mediocre season (by his standards) this year: his arthritic back and the lack of a strong defensive line. Urlacher is not very big and he has trouble shedding blocks if offensive linemen can get to him. Last year, Tank Johnson and the other Bears linemen kept Urlacher free to make plays. This year, the defensive line is not doing nearly as good a job of occupying blockers and they are finding ways to block Urlacher…The Bears continue to struggle to run the ball. Adrian Peterson’s stats are very Cedric Benson-like. The bottom line is that the offensive line is not opening many holes and the running backs the Bears have are not good enough to make something out of nothing.
Meanwhile, Devin Hester had a season-high five receptions on Thursday against Washington. The Bears would be wise to get him more involved in the offense. He and Bernard Berrian would make a good pair of deep threats…Chicago has benched safety Adam Archuleta. The free agent signee has had trouble in pass coverage all season and has also taken poor tackling angles when defending the run. Unfortunately for the Bears, his replacement, Brandon McGowan, hasn’t done much better and continues to make mental mistakes.
Detroit Lions—WR Roy Williams is likely out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. That hurts the Lions because Williams remains their best deep threat and most reliable receiver. Still, this gives rookie Calvin Johnson a chance to shine. The second overall pick in last year’s draft has shown flashes but seems to be having trouble learning the complex Mike Martz offense. It’s not unusual for recievers to struggle in the NFL as rookies. These last four games should give Detroit’s coaching staff a better idea of how far Johnson has progressed this season
CB LaMarcus Hicks is also out for the season after breaking his ankle against the Vikings. The Lions lack depth in their secondary to begin with and Hicks’ absence will hurt them further…From the it’s probably not a coincidence department: Detroit’s six wins have come against teams with a combined .458 winning percentage. During their recent four-game losing streak, they have played teams with a winning percentage of .625…
Detroit’s biggest problem offensively is on the offensive line. OT George Foster has been playing poorly, G Blaine Saipaia has been forced to play tackle at times and Jonathan Scott has missed substantial time due to injury. Guard Damien Woody has been playing tackle as well. He’s done a workmanlike job but he’s no long term solution. The offensive line has had trouble pass protecting and opening holes for the run
Jon Kitna has been affected by the constant pressure he has been under. In the last three games, he has thrown only 3 TDs and 5 INTs. Kitna’s as tough as they come but the constant punishment he has taken this season is taking its toll.
Potential mismatch this week against Dallas: CB Fernando Bryant against Terrell Owens. Bryant is questionable for the game with a foot injury. The Lions would have trouble matching up against Owens and TE Jason Witten even if their secondary was healthy. Unfortunately, they are banged up. Unless the Lions get pressure on Tony Romo, the secondary could be in for a long day.
Green Bay Packers—Brett Favre is expected to start his 250th consecutive regular season game Sunday against the Raiders. That’s a good thing because backup Aaron Rogers, who played well against the Cowboys when Favre got hurt, is unavailable for at least the next two games due to an hamstring injury. The Pack signed former backup Craig Nall, recently released by Buffalo, to be Favre’s backup
Charles Woodson and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila are still game-time decisions on Sunday. The Pack would not be wise to rush either back. KGB is more likely to start than Woodson is…The key for the Pack defensively this week will be to slow down RBs Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan. The Raiders have trouble passing the football consistently but they are one of the top running teams in the league. The Pack must stay in their lanes and prevent big running plays
Ryan Grant has been a perfect fit for the Pack at RB. He gives the team a threat of the run but doesn’t seem to need a lot of carries to pick up big yards. Grant is a one-cut runner who finds holes and quickly exploits them
The Packers need some contribution from first round pick Justin Harrell down the stretch. With two members of their DT rotation (Johnny Jolly and Colin Cole) out with injuries, Harrell will get playing time. So far, he has not even been dressed for games unless injuries made it necessary. He also appears to be slow to pick up the team’s defensive scheme
A win over the Raiders would clinch the NFC North for the Packers regardless of what Detroit or Minnesota do…WR Donald Driver needs 102 yards to top the 1,000 yard mark for the fourth straight season. Driver just passed Hall of Famer Don Hutson for third on the Packers all-time receptions list with 490. He needs 105 to tie Sterling Sharpe for first all-time
Safeties Atari Bigby and Nick Collins are both weak in coverage. The Pack has had trouble covering TEs partially due to this problem. Bigby also takes too many interference calls which have been hurtful to the Pack..
Minnesota Vikings—One reason for the Vikings recent winning streak is the improved play of QB Tarvaris Jackson. While Jackson is still not the kind of QB who will win games for you with his arm, he is becoming an efficient and effective passer. During his last three games, Jackson has completed nearly 79 percent of his passes and his decision making has improved. He is now more able to go through his progressions and find secondary receivers. Jackson has four games left to show the Vikings’ coaching staff that he is worthy of being their QB of the future
DE Erasmus James is out for the season with a knee injury. DE Ray Edwards has been suspended for four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. The loss of those two players leaves Minnesota thin at DE. The Vikings just might get CB Antoine Winfield back for Sunday’s game in San Francisco. Winfield’s presence would really be a boost to the secondary
With Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, the Vikings may have the most explosive RB duo in the league. If healthy and given enough carries, Peterson is capable of gaining 2,000 yards on the ground in a season while Taylor can surpass 1,500. The two complement each other well and make life hard for opposing defenses
The Vikings’ schedule down the stretch is not too bad. After playing San Francisco this week, they finish by hosting Chicago on Monday night, hosting Washington and traveling to Denver.
Chicago Bears—It will take nothing short of a miracle to get the Bears into this year’s playoffs. After Thursday night’s loss to Washington, the defending NFC champs are 5-8 with remaining games at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay and vs. New Orleans. The Bears would need to run the table and get plenty of help to sneak in as the second Wild Card team. Trust me, it won’t happen.
Brian Griese threw two costly picks against the Redskins on back-to-back plays. It seems that no matter who is behind center, Chicago’s offense is inconsistent and turnover prone. Griese hasn’t turned out to be that much better than Rex Grossman, having thrown 12 picks in seven starts. Regardless of how serious Grossman’s injury is, the Bears need to address the quaterback position in the offseason as neither Grossman nor Griese appear to be the answer. Griese is more valuable as a backup if the team wants him to stay.
Two reasons for Brian Urlacher’s mediocre season (by his standards) this year: his arthritic back and the lack of a strong defensive line. Urlacher is not very big and he has trouble shedding blocks if offensive linemen can get to him. Last year, Tank Johnson and the other Bears linemen kept Urlacher free to make plays. This year, the defensive line is not doing nearly as good a job of occupying blockers and they are finding ways to block Urlacher…The Bears continue to struggle to run the ball. Adrian Peterson’s stats are very Cedric Benson-like. The bottom line is that the offensive line is not opening many holes and the running backs the Bears have are not good enough to make something out of nothing.
Meanwhile, Devin Hester had a season-high five receptions on Thursday against Washington. The Bears would be wise to get him more involved in the offense. He and Bernard Berrian would make a good pair of deep threats…Chicago has benched safety Adam Archuleta. The free agent signee has had trouble in pass coverage all season and has also taken poor tackling angles when defending the run. Unfortunately for the Bears, his replacement, Brandon McGowan, hasn’t done much better and continues to make mental mistakes.
Detroit Lions—WR Roy Williams is likely out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. That hurts the Lions because Williams remains their best deep threat and most reliable receiver. Still, this gives rookie Calvin Johnson a chance to shine. The second overall pick in last year’s draft has shown flashes but seems to be having trouble learning the complex Mike Martz offense. It’s not unusual for recievers to struggle in the NFL as rookies. These last four games should give Detroit’s coaching staff a better idea of how far Johnson has progressed this season
CB LaMarcus Hicks is also out for the season after breaking his ankle against the Vikings. The Lions lack depth in their secondary to begin with and Hicks’ absence will hurt them further…From the it’s probably not a coincidence department: Detroit’s six wins have come against teams with a combined .458 winning percentage. During their recent four-game losing streak, they have played teams with a winning percentage of .625…
Detroit’s biggest problem offensively is on the offensive line. OT George Foster has been playing poorly, G Blaine Saipaia has been forced to play tackle at times and Jonathan Scott has missed substantial time due to injury. Guard Damien Woody has been playing tackle as well. He’s done a workmanlike job but he’s no long term solution. The offensive line has had trouble pass protecting and opening holes for the run
Jon Kitna has been affected by the constant pressure he has been under. In the last three games, he has thrown only 3 TDs and 5 INTs. Kitna’s as tough as they come but the constant punishment he has taken this season is taking its toll.
Potential mismatch this week against Dallas: CB Fernando Bryant against Terrell Owens. Bryant is questionable for the game with a foot injury. The Lions would have trouble matching up against Owens and TE Jason Witten even if their secondary was healthy. Unfortunately, they are banged up. Unless the Lions get pressure on Tony Romo, the secondary could be in for a long day.
Green Bay Packers—Brett Favre is expected to start his 250th consecutive regular season game Sunday against the Raiders. That’s a good thing because backup Aaron Rogers, who played well against the Cowboys when Favre got hurt, is unavailable for at least the next two games due to an hamstring injury. The Pack signed former backup Craig Nall, recently released by Buffalo, to be Favre’s backup
Charles Woodson and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila are still game-time decisions on Sunday. The Pack would not be wise to rush either back. KGB is more likely to start than Woodson is…The key for the Pack defensively this week will be to slow down RBs Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan. The Raiders have trouble passing the football consistently but they are one of the top running teams in the league. The Pack must stay in their lanes and prevent big running plays
Ryan Grant has been a perfect fit for the Pack at RB. He gives the team a threat of the run but doesn’t seem to need a lot of carries to pick up big yards. Grant is a one-cut runner who finds holes and quickly exploits them
The Packers need some contribution from first round pick Justin Harrell down the stretch. With two members of their DT rotation (Johnny Jolly and Colin Cole) out with injuries, Harrell will get playing time. So far, he has not even been dressed for games unless injuries made it necessary. He also appears to be slow to pick up the team’s defensive scheme
A win over the Raiders would clinch the NFC North for the Packers regardless of what Detroit or Minnesota do…WR Donald Driver needs 102 yards to top the 1,000 yard mark for the fourth straight season. Driver just passed Hall of Famer Don Hutson for third on the Packers all-time receptions list with 490. He needs 105 to tie Sterling Sharpe for first all-time
Safeties Atari Bigby and Nick Collins are both weak in coverage. The Pack has had trouble covering TEs partially due to this problem. Bigby also takes too many interference calls which have been hurtful to the Pack..
Minnesota Vikings—One reason for the Vikings recent winning streak is the improved play of QB Tarvaris Jackson. While Jackson is still not the kind of QB who will win games for you with his arm, he is becoming an efficient and effective passer. During his last three games, Jackson has completed nearly 79 percent of his passes and his decision making has improved. He is now more able to go through his progressions and find secondary receivers. Jackson has four games left to show the Vikings’ coaching staff that he is worthy of being their QB of the future
DE Erasmus James is out for the season with a knee injury. DE Ray Edwards has been suspended for four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. The loss of those two players leaves Minnesota thin at DE. The Vikings just might get CB Antoine Winfield back for Sunday’s game in San Francisco. Winfield’s presence would really be a boost to the secondary
With Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, the Vikings may have the most explosive RB duo in the league. If healthy and given enough carries, Peterson is capable of gaining 2,000 yards on the ground in a season while Taylor can surpass 1,500. The two complement each other well and make life hard for opposing defenses
The Vikings’ schedule down the stretch is not too bad. After playing San Francisco this week, they finish by hosting Chicago on Monday night, hosting Washington and traveling to Denver.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Week 14 Fantasy Preview
By Brad Kurtzberg, Fantasy Football Insiders Senior Writer
The playoffs start in most fantasy leagues either this week or next week. When it comes to this time of year, stick with the players that got you there. Sure, you have to keep close tabs on injuries and the like, but your best bet in the long run is to have the most talented lineup possible. If it’s a toss-up between two or more players, I’ll be able to point out matchups to take advantage of. Here is a look at this week’s matchups which will help you win your fantasy league.
Thursday 8:15 PM ET
Chicago at Washington
Both of these teams are hanging on by a thread in the NFC playoff race. The Redskins are still reeling from the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor. They had the funeral on Monday and will have only one full day of practice to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, the Bears allowed the Giants to make a late fourth quarter comeback last week in Chicago to drop to 5-7. They are a far cry from the team that represented the NFC in last year’s Super Bowl.
Stud: Clinton Portis, RB Washington. The Redskins running back aggravated an ankle injury late in the Buffalo game last week so check his status. If he plays, Portis should find plenty of room to run against a leaky Bears defense ranked 27th against the run. If Portis can’t play, go with Ladell Betts, his replacement.
Dud: Adrian Peterson, RB Chicago. So far, Peterson’s stats look an awful lot like Cedric Benson’s. Perhaps the offensive line is a large part of the problem in Chicago. The Redskins run defense is 10th in the league and the Bears have trouble rushing the football.
Sleeper: Bernard Berrian, WR Chicago. Berrian faces a Redskins secondary that has struggled since Taylor’s death. Look for Rex Grossman to exploit this matchup and for Berrian to have his first big day in three weeks.
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
San Diego at Tennessee
This game matches up two teams in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Both have 7-5 records but the Chargers benefit from being in the weaker West while the Titans are in the South, perhaps the most competitive division in the league. The Chargers defeated the Chiefs last week which solidified their hold on the division. The Titans got past the pesky Texans to end their three-game losing streak. Getting DT Albert Haynesworth back really helped. Both teams really need a win but the Titans need it a bit more.
Stud: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB San Diego. Tomlinson ran wild against KC last week and totaled 197 yards and 2 TDs. He has scored in four of the last five games and gone over the 1,000 yard rushing mark for the season. Even with Haynesworth back in the lineup, the Titans defense has not been as effective. If they do slow LT down rushing the ball, the Chargers will throw it to him.
Dud: LenDale White, RB Tennessee. White has only 141 yards rushing total in his last four games. The Chargers run defense is strongest up the middle and that’s where White is at his best.
Sleeper: Antonio Gates, TE San Diego. Gates had only 1 catch last week for –1 yards. He will be facing LB Keith Bulluck of the Titans, which gives a physical advantage to Gates. Don’t expect Gates to be a non-factor two weeks in a row.
Miami at Buffalo
The Dolphins are three-quarters of the way to a winless season. No team has gone 0-16 since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978 but the Dolphins look like they have a real chance to pull off that unwelcome feat. The Bills are a game behind in the AFC Wild Card race after a last second victory over a stunned Redskins team last week in DC. The cold weather will not make things easy for the battered Dolphins.
Stud: Fred Jackson, RB Buffalo. The Dolphins have the worst run defense in the league and Jackson has looked good so far when given the chance. Last week against Washington, he ran for 82 yards and caught four passes for another 69. Look for another good game from Jackson against a Miami team that has trouble staying in its gaps.
Dud: Marty Booker, WR Miami. Booker has fallen off in recent weeks although a lack of a quaterback hasn’t helped. He has also dropped too many passes. The Bills will contain the Fish’s top wide receiver who has only 1 TD on the season and 12 catches total in the last four games.
Sleeper: Lee Evans, WR Buffalo. Evans is the biggest receiving threat the Bills have and Trent Edwards played well last week. The Dolphins pass defense is nothing special and Evans should end up with a solid statistical day.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
The Giants pulled out a late game comeback against the Bears that may have saved Eli Manning’s career with New York. Manning remains mistake prone but he showed some leadership by coming on late last week to eke out a victory. The Eagles loss to Seattle all but ended their playoff hopes. Donovan McNabb may be back to face the Giants tough defensive line. The first time these two teams met, McNabb was sacked 12 times.
Stud: Brandon Jacobs, RB N.Y. Giants. Jacobs has been limited in practice but is expected to get the start Sunday (check status). Even if Jacobs is not ready to go, feel free to play Reuben Droughns. The Giants are trusting Eli Manning less and less and their run blocking has been strong. Philly’s run defense is solid but the Giants will grind it out effectively.
Dud: Donovan McNabb, QB Philadelphia. McNabb may be back from ankle and thumb injuries but against the Giants tough pass rush, he may wish he stayed off the field for another week. If A.J. Feeley has to start, he’d be an even bigger dud.
Sleeper: Brian Westbrook, RB Philadelphia. Westbrook is a top fantasy player and if the Giants 5th ranked rush defense shuts him down, the Eagles will throw plenty of short passes to him to stall the Giants pass rush. Westbrook will put up good numbers Sunday.
Carolina at Jacksonville
The Panthers have fallen on hard times without a steady quaterback while the Jags have proven themselves true playoff contenders despite another heartbreaking loss to the Colts last week. While Carolina has been wildly inconsistent this year, they are 4-2 on the road.
Stud: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jacksonville. Jones-Drew has scored in each of the last four games. The Jaguars running game should wear down the Panthers defense and by the fourth quarter, big holes should be there for Jones-Drew and company.
Dud: Vinny Testaverde, QB Carolina. The veteran had a solid game last week with 2 TDs, but he just can’t get it done consistently anymore. The Jags will put enough pressure on Testaverde to keep him in check.
Sleeper: Fred Taylor, RB Jacksonville. Taylor has topped 100 yards rushing in back-to-back games. He doesn’t find the end zone as much as Jones-Drew, but he is playing very well and gets the bulk of the carries. He should find success Sunday as the game progresses.
Tampa Bay at Houston
The Bucs all but own the NFC South and at 8-4, have an easy schedule down the stretch and no real competition for the division crown. The Texans are very improved and you have to wonder what their season would have been like if WR Andre Johnson and QB Matt Schaub would have stayed healthy. They are capable of beating anybody but are also capable of playing poorly on any given week. They are learning how to win at this point.
Stud: Earnest Graham, RB Tampa Bay. Graham has 737 yards rushing and 7 TDs which is impressive considering he only saw spot duty as a backup the first three games. The Texans run defense is ranked 25th and with QB Jeff Garcia out with an injury, the Bucs should emphasize the run even more than usual.
Dud: Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston. Rosenfels is not very consistent and he faces the NFL’s 4th best pass defense in Tampa Bay. Look for average fantasy stats from Sage but nothing special.
Sleeper: Andre Johnson, WR Houston. Johnson is one of the best in the game but he flies under the radar because he plays for a Houston team that has not yet established itself as a consistent winner. He has an interesting matchup this week with CB Ronde Barber and Johnson has a five-inch height advantage. In five games played, Johnson has 5 TDs and has topped the 100-yard mark four times.
St. Louis at Cincinnati
These two teams mirror each other in that they have much stronger offenses than defenses and both have struggled this year. The Rams have won three of their last four while the Bengals are out of the AFC playoff picture but can score with anybody, especially now that third WR Chris Henry is back in the lineup.
Stud: Stephen Jackson, RB St. Louis. Jackson has scored TDs in four of the last five games and has topped 90 yards rushing in has last three contests. The Bengals have trouble stopping the run and are ranked 23rd in that category. Jackson should have a very productive day.
Dud: Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati. Watson has not had a solid rushing total in five weeks and he and Rudi Johnson tend to split carries. Johnson is going to get a few more chances than Watson and is more likely to carry the mail near the end zone.
Sleeper: Torry Holt WR St. Louis. There are plenty of great receivers to choose from in this game and all of them are probably solid selections but Holt is the focal point of the Rams’ passing attack and the Bengals secondary is 26th in the league. Holt has a mismatch against CB Jonathan Joseph. He also has three 100-plus yard games and 3 TDs in his last five contests.
Oakland at Green Bay
The Packers look to bounce back from last Thursday’s defeat in Dallas while the Raiders hope to build on their win over the Broncos. Brett Favre is expected to get his 250th straight start but keep an eye on his effectiveness throughout the game.
Stud: Ryan Grant, RB Green Bay. The Raiders defense is 30th against the rush. Grant may not get a lot of carries, but he is averaging nearly five yards per carry and has 3 TDs in his last four games and usually approaches or tops the 100-yard mark. With Brett Favre a little banged up, don’t be surprised if Grant gets a few extra chances to run the ball Sunday.
Dud: Josh McCown, QB Oakland. McCown will be under steady pressure from DE Aaron Kampman and company. While he played very well against Denver last week (3 TDs), McCown is not known for his consistency.
Sleeper: Justin Fargas, RB Oakland. Fargas has run wild the past two games, totaling 285 yards and 2 TDs. The Raiders are a run-first team and Fargas will have his moments against the Packers’ solid run defense on Sunday.
Dallas at Detroit
It doesn’t get any easier for the reeling Lions who have now lost four straight. The 11-1 Cowboys come calling. Another loss would be very harmful to the Lions fading playoff chances. The Cowboys have an extra few days of rest after last Thursday’s big win over Green Bay. They have to avoid a letdown and they can roll to the top seed in the NFC playoffs.
Stud: Tony Romo, QB Dallas. The Lions secondary is very vulnerable and are ranked 31st in the league at pass defense. Romo must be licking his chops to face this mediocre unit. Unless the Lions find a way to put steady pressure on Romo, they are in for a long afternoon.
Dud: Kevin Jones, RB Detroit. The Lions don’t even try to run the football in some games and last week was yet another example. Jones had three carries for one yard and for the second time in four weeks, the Lions ground attack was literally almost non-existent. Dallas’ run defense ranks 4th in the league.
Sleeper: Terrell Owens, WR Dallas. T.O. vs. the Detroit secondary. You can stop laughing now. No matter which CB and/or safety the Lions try to cover Owens with, T.O. will have a huge advantage and he should have another huge day.
Sunday 4:00 PM ET
Minnesota at San Francisco
The Vikings suddenly find themselves in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race while the 49ers have been behind the eight ball most of the season. San Francisco simply has trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Minnesota has gotten better play of late from QB Tarvaris Jackson and getting Adrian Peterson back only makes the Minnesota attack more lethal.
Stud: Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota. Peterson is facing a San Francisco defense ranked 26th in the league at stopping the run. He seemed no worse for wear playing with a knee brace last week. Peterson is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. The Niners should be plenty worried.
Dud: Arnaz Battle, WR San Francisco. Battle has TDs in two straight games but he tweaked an ankle last week and may not be at full strength for Sunday’s game. The Minnesota secondary is not good but Battle will be held in check.
Sleeper: Tarvaris Jackson, QB Minnesota. Jackson’s play has improved in recent weeks. He is reading defenses much better and has found his groove, completing more than 75 percent of his passes in each of the last three games. Don’t look for a monster game from Jackson, but he’s capable of throwing for a couple of TDs and more than 200 yards against a shaky San Francisco secondary.
Arizona at Seattle
A win all but clinches the NFC West for Seattle. A Cardinals win and they would have a sweep of the Seahawks and be one game back (with all tiebreaker advantages) with three to play. Injuries to WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin may limit the Cardinals offense. The key for Arizona will be to protect QB Kurt Warner.
Stud: Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seattle. The Cards pass defense ranks 24th in the league against the pass. Hasselbeck’s steady play has carried the Seahawks of late when RB Shaun Alexander was injured. Hasselbeck has thrown for at least one TD in 11 of 12 games.
Dud: Arizona Defense. The Cards defense makes plenty of big plays when they win, but they will surrender a lot of yards and points to the Seahawks this week, especially through the air.
Sleeper: Edgerrin James, RB Arizona. James topped the 100-yard mark last week. If the weather is iffy, he will be even more vital to the Cards’ offense. As it is, they need him to be effective to take some pressure off of Warner. He will get plenty of touches Sunday.
Kansas City at Denver
These two teams expected to be contenders this season but both have fallen flat. The Broncos have lost two straight and one more loss would all but end their playoff chances. The Chiefs have dropped five in-a-row and need to hold on to some dignity and finish the season on a little bit of a run. Both of these teams tend to make mistakes at crucial moments. Denver won the first meeting in Kansas City earlier this season.
Stud: Kolby Smith, RB Kansas City. Smith topped 80 yards last week and has 233 yards and 2 TDs in two starts. The Broncos run defense is allowing 149.1 yards per game so Smith should have room to run.
Dud: Damon Huard, QB Kansas City. Huard has in injured hand but is expected to play. The Broncos pass defense is strong, ranking 9th in the league. Even when Huard is healthy, the Chiefs passing attack is second rate.
Sleeper: Travis Henry, RB Denver. Henry had 2 TD runs last week and won his appeal against the league to prevent him from being suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He should get the bulk of the carries for the Broncos. The Chiefs run defense is 21st in the league.
Pittsburgh at New England
The Patriots remained perfect with another last minute win against Baltimore last week. Meanwhile, the Steelers won another game in the rain and slop of Pittsburgh, downing the Bengals on Sunday night. Pittsburgh’s defense, which features multiple formations and zone blitzes, may be just the thing to contain Tom Brady and the Patriots high powered offense. Certainly on paper, this is the toughest remaining game New England faces.
Stud: Tom Brady, QB New England. Brady’s numbers haven’t been as overwhelming the past few weeks, but keeping up that pace was nearly impossible. He’s still in charge of the most potent passing attack in the league and should post solid numbers against a tough Steelers defense.
Dud: Laurence Maroney, RB New England. Maroney has just 29 carries in the last three games. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league against the run so don’t expect a lot of production from him on Sunday.
Sleeper: Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger has 25 TD passes and a passer rating over 100 this season. The Steelers will try to establish the run first, but they score TDs through the air and Roethlisberger will put up good if not great numbers vs. the Pats.
Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
The Browns lost a controversial game a week ago to the Cardinals when Braylon Edwards was ruled not to have been pushed out of bounds on the final play of the game. The Browns are 7-5 and still hold the final Wild Card spot in the AFC but they have little room for error if they hope to keep it. The Jets staved off embarrassment by beating Miami handily but they still have a long way to go as a team.
Stud: Derek Anderson, QB Cleveland. Anderson has thrown 24 TD passes despite not starting in week 1. Look for him to find plenty of chances against the Jets pass defense. The Browns attack simply has too many weapons for the Jets defensive backs to handle.
Dud: Cleveland Defense. The Browns have trouble stopping anybody. Stay away from this defense every week if possible.
Sleeper: Thomas Jones, RB N.Y. Jets. Jones scored his first TD of the season last week and had 75 yards rushing. The Browns defense is 28th in the league at stopping the run and the Jets would be wise to give Jones plenty of carries in an attempt to keep the Browns powerful offense off the field.
Sunday 8:15 PM ET
Indianapolis at Baltimore
The Colts are regaining their health on offense and have the inside track to the second seed and a first round bye in the playoffs. The Ravens are out of the playoff picture but gave the Patriots all they could handle last Monday. Kyle Boller will start at QB for the rest of the season. This may be his last chance to show he can still be Baltimore’s quaterback of the future.
Stud: Peyton Manning, QB Indianapolis. Manning is still deadly accurate and one of the best fantasy QBs out there. The Ravens defense is good but no longer as intimidating as it used to be. Manning should have a solid game against the Ravens 15th ranked pass defense.
Dud: Kyle Boller, QB Baltimore. Boller had 2 TDs and 210 yards against New England last week. That is probably his fantasy upside. The Colts have a good pass defense, ranked second in the league. They will make things tougher for Boller.
Sleeper: Willie McGahee, RB Baltimore. McGahee has scored a TD in each of the last seven games. He has gone over 1,000 yards for the season and has topped the 100-yard mark in two of the last three games. The Colts run defense is good but not great. The Ravens will feature McGahee and he will come through.
Monday 8:30 PM ET
New Orleans at Atlanta
When the schedule came out, this divisional clash looked like a great game. Now the Saints have come back to earth and Michael Vick is behind bars and the game features two sub-.500 teams. The Saints have to run the table to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card. The Falcons have a chance to show a national TV audience that they aren’t as bad as their record.
Stud: Drew Brees, QB New Orleans. Brees has 5 TDs in the last two games and is capable of a big game at any time. New Orleans struggles to run the ball so they will rely heavily on Brees and the passing attack to get things done.
Dud: Michael Jenkins, WR Atlanta. Don’t expect much from Jenkins despite his TD catch last week. The former first round pick has never developed into a consistent NFL receiver.
Sleeper: Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans. The Falcons can’t stop the run and Bush is the Saints favorite target in the passing game as well. If the former Heisman winner can have a big game, this should be it.
The playoffs start in most fantasy leagues either this week or next week. When it comes to this time of year, stick with the players that got you there. Sure, you have to keep close tabs on injuries and the like, but your best bet in the long run is to have the most talented lineup possible. If it’s a toss-up between two or more players, I’ll be able to point out matchups to take advantage of. Here is a look at this week’s matchups which will help you win your fantasy league.
Thursday 8:15 PM ET
Chicago at Washington
Both of these teams are hanging on by a thread in the NFC playoff race. The Redskins are still reeling from the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor. They had the funeral on Monday and will have only one full day of practice to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, the Bears allowed the Giants to make a late fourth quarter comeback last week in Chicago to drop to 5-7. They are a far cry from the team that represented the NFC in last year’s Super Bowl.
Stud: Clinton Portis, RB Washington. The Redskins running back aggravated an ankle injury late in the Buffalo game last week so check his status. If he plays, Portis should find plenty of room to run against a leaky Bears defense ranked 27th against the run. If Portis can’t play, go with Ladell Betts, his replacement.
Dud: Adrian Peterson, RB Chicago. So far, Peterson’s stats look an awful lot like Cedric Benson’s. Perhaps the offensive line is a large part of the problem in Chicago. The Redskins run defense is 10th in the league and the Bears have trouble rushing the football.
Sleeper: Bernard Berrian, WR Chicago. Berrian faces a Redskins secondary that has struggled since Taylor’s death. Look for Rex Grossman to exploit this matchup and for Berrian to have his first big day in three weeks.
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
San Diego at Tennessee
This game matches up two teams in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Both have 7-5 records but the Chargers benefit from being in the weaker West while the Titans are in the South, perhaps the most competitive division in the league. The Chargers defeated the Chiefs last week which solidified their hold on the division. The Titans got past the pesky Texans to end their three-game losing streak. Getting DT Albert Haynesworth back really helped. Both teams really need a win but the Titans need it a bit more.
Stud: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB San Diego. Tomlinson ran wild against KC last week and totaled 197 yards and 2 TDs. He has scored in four of the last five games and gone over the 1,000 yard rushing mark for the season. Even with Haynesworth back in the lineup, the Titans defense has not been as effective. If they do slow LT down rushing the ball, the Chargers will throw it to him.
Dud: LenDale White, RB Tennessee. White has only 141 yards rushing total in his last four games. The Chargers run defense is strongest up the middle and that’s where White is at his best.
Sleeper: Antonio Gates, TE San Diego. Gates had only 1 catch last week for –1 yards. He will be facing LB Keith Bulluck of the Titans, which gives a physical advantage to Gates. Don’t expect Gates to be a non-factor two weeks in a row.
Miami at Buffalo
The Dolphins are three-quarters of the way to a winless season. No team has gone 0-16 since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978 but the Dolphins look like they have a real chance to pull off that unwelcome feat. The Bills are a game behind in the AFC Wild Card race after a last second victory over a stunned Redskins team last week in DC. The cold weather will not make things easy for the battered Dolphins.
Stud: Fred Jackson, RB Buffalo. The Dolphins have the worst run defense in the league and Jackson has looked good so far when given the chance. Last week against Washington, he ran for 82 yards and caught four passes for another 69. Look for another good game from Jackson against a Miami team that has trouble staying in its gaps.
Dud: Marty Booker, WR Miami. Booker has fallen off in recent weeks although a lack of a quaterback hasn’t helped. He has also dropped too many passes. The Bills will contain the Fish’s top wide receiver who has only 1 TD on the season and 12 catches total in the last four games.
Sleeper: Lee Evans, WR Buffalo. Evans is the biggest receiving threat the Bills have and Trent Edwards played well last week. The Dolphins pass defense is nothing special and Evans should end up with a solid statistical day.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia
The Giants pulled out a late game comeback against the Bears that may have saved Eli Manning’s career with New York. Manning remains mistake prone but he showed some leadership by coming on late last week to eke out a victory. The Eagles loss to Seattle all but ended their playoff hopes. Donovan McNabb may be back to face the Giants tough defensive line. The first time these two teams met, McNabb was sacked 12 times.
Stud: Brandon Jacobs, RB N.Y. Giants. Jacobs has been limited in practice but is expected to get the start Sunday (check status). Even if Jacobs is not ready to go, feel free to play Reuben Droughns. The Giants are trusting Eli Manning less and less and their run blocking has been strong. Philly’s run defense is solid but the Giants will grind it out effectively.
Dud: Donovan McNabb, QB Philadelphia. McNabb may be back from ankle and thumb injuries but against the Giants tough pass rush, he may wish he stayed off the field for another week. If A.J. Feeley has to start, he’d be an even bigger dud.
Sleeper: Brian Westbrook, RB Philadelphia. Westbrook is a top fantasy player and if the Giants 5th ranked rush defense shuts him down, the Eagles will throw plenty of short passes to him to stall the Giants pass rush. Westbrook will put up good numbers Sunday.
Carolina at Jacksonville
The Panthers have fallen on hard times without a steady quaterback while the Jags have proven themselves true playoff contenders despite another heartbreaking loss to the Colts last week. While Carolina has been wildly inconsistent this year, they are 4-2 on the road.
Stud: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jacksonville. Jones-Drew has scored in each of the last four games. The Jaguars running game should wear down the Panthers defense and by the fourth quarter, big holes should be there for Jones-Drew and company.
Dud: Vinny Testaverde, QB Carolina. The veteran had a solid game last week with 2 TDs, but he just can’t get it done consistently anymore. The Jags will put enough pressure on Testaverde to keep him in check.
Sleeper: Fred Taylor, RB Jacksonville. Taylor has topped 100 yards rushing in back-to-back games. He doesn’t find the end zone as much as Jones-Drew, but he is playing very well and gets the bulk of the carries. He should find success Sunday as the game progresses.
Tampa Bay at Houston
The Bucs all but own the NFC South and at 8-4, have an easy schedule down the stretch and no real competition for the division crown. The Texans are very improved and you have to wonder what their season would have been like if WR Andre Johnson and QB Matt Schaub would have stayed healthy. They are capable of beating anybody but are also capable of playing poorly on any given week. They are learning how to win at this point.
Stud: Earnest Graham, RB Tampa Bay. Graham has 737 yards rushing and 7 TDs which is impressive considering he only saw spot duty as a backup the first three games. The Texans run defense is ranked 25th and with QB Jeff Garcia out with an injury, the Bucs should emphasize the run even more than usual.
Dud: Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston. Rosenfels is not very consistent and he faces the NFL’s 4th best pass defense in Tampa Bay. Look for average fantasy stats from Sage but nothing special.
Sleeper: Andre Johnson, WR Houston. Johnson is one of the best in the game but he flies under the radar because he plays for a Houston team that has not yet established itself as a consistent winner. He has an interesting matchup this week with CB Ronde Barber and Johnson has a five-inch height advantage. In five games played, Johnson has 5 TDs and has topped the 100-yard mark four times.
St. Louis at Cincinnati
These two teams mirror each other in that they have much stronger offenses than defenses and both have struggled this year. The Rams have won three of their last four while the Bengals are out of the AFC playoff picture but can score with anybody, especially now that third WR Chris Henry is back in the lineup.
Stud: Stephen Jackson, RB St. Louis. Jackson has scored TDs in four of the last five games and has topped 90 yards rushing in has last three contests. The Bengals have trouble stopping the run and are ranked 23rd in that category. Jackson should have a very productive day.
Dud: Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati. Watson has not had a solid rushing total in five weeks and he and Rudi Johnson tend to split carries. Johnson is going to get a few more chances than Watson and is more likely to carry the mail near the end zone.
Sleeper: Torry Holt WR St. Louis. There are plenty of great receivers to choose from in this game and all of them are probably solid selections but Holt is the focal point of the Rams’ passing attack and the Bengals secondary is 26th in the league. Holt has a mismatch against CB Jonathan Joseph. He also has three 100-plus yard games and 3 TDs in his last five contests.
Oakland at Green Bay
The Packers look to bounce back from last Thursday’s defeat in Dallas while the Raiders hope to build on their win over the Broncos. Brett Favre is expected to get his 250th straight start but keep an eye on his effectiveness throughout the game.
Stud: Ryan Grant, RB Green Bay. The Raiders defense is 30th against the rush. Grant may not get a lot of carries, but he is averaging nearly five yards per carry and has 3 TDs in his last four games and usually approaches or tops the 100-yard mark. With Brett Favre a little banged up, don’t be surprised if Grant gets a few extra chances to run the ball Sunday.
Dud: Josh McCown, QB Oakland. McCown will be under steady pressure from DE Aaron Kampman and company. While he played very well against Denver last week (3 TDs), McCown is not known for his consistency.
Sleeper: Justin Fargas, RB Oakland. Fargas has run wild the past two games, totaling 285 yards and 2 TDs. The Raiders are a run-first team and Fargas will have his moments against the Packers’ solid run defense on Sunday.
Dallas at Detroit
It doesn’t get any easier for the reeling Lions who have now lost four straight. The 11-1 Cowboys come calling. Another loss would be very harmful to the Lions fading playoff chances. The Cowboys have an extra few days of rest after last Thursday’s big win over Green Bay. They have to avoid a letdown and they can roll to the top seed in the NFC playoffs.
Stud: Tony Romo, QB Dallas. The Lions secondary is very vulnerable and are ranked 31st in the league at pass defense. Romo must be licking his chops to face this mediocre unit. Unless the Lions find a way to put steady pressure on Romo, they are in for a long afternoon.
Dud: Kevin Jones, RB Detroit. The Lions don’t even try to run the football in some games and last week was yet another example. Jones had three carries for one yard and for the second time in four weeks, the Lions ground attack was literally almost non-existent. Dallas’ run defense ranks 4th in the league.
Sleeper: Terrell Owens, WR Dallas. T.O. vs. the Detroit secondary. You can stop laughing now. No matter which CB and/or safety the Lions try to cover Owens with, T.O. will have a huge advantage and he should have another huge day.
Sunday 4:00 PM ET
Minnesota at San Francisco
The Vikings suddenly find themselves in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race while the 49ers have been behind the eight ball most of the season. San Francisco simply has trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Minnesota has gotten better play of late from QB Tarvaris Jackson and getting Adrian Peterson back only makes the Minnesota attack more lethal.
Stud: Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota. Peterson is facing a San Francisco defense ranked 26th in the league at stopping the run. He seemed no worse for wear playing with a knee brace last week. Peterson is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. The Niners should be plenty worried.
Dud: Arnaz Battle, WR San Francisco. Battle has TDs in two straight games but he tweaked an ankle last week and may not be at full strength for Sunday’s game. The Minnesota secondary is not good but Battle will be held in check.
Sleeper: Tarvaris Jackson, QB Minnesota. Jackson’s play has improved in recent weeks. He is reading defenses much better and has found his groove, completing more than 75 percent of his passes in each of the last three games. Don’t look for a monster game from Jackson, but he’s capable of throwing for a couple of TDs and more than 200 yards against a shaky San Francisco secondary.
Arizona at Seattle
A win all but clinches the NFC West for Seattle. A Cardinals win and they would have a sweep of the Seahawks and be one game back (with all tiebreaker advantages) with three to play. Injuries to WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin may limit the Cardinals offense. The key for Arizona will be to protect QB Kurt Warner.
Stud: Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seattle. The Cards pass defense ranks 24th in the league against the pass. Hasselbeck’s steady play has carried the Seahawks of late when RB Shaun Alexander was injured. Hasselbeck has thrown for at least one TD in 11 of 12 games.
Dud: Arizona Defense. The Cards defense makes plenty of big plays when they win, but they will surrender a lot of yards and points to the Seahawks this week, especially through the air.
Sleeper: Edgerrin James, RB Arizona. James topped the 100-yard mark last week. If the weather is iffy, he will be even more vital to the Cards’ offense. As it is, they need him to be effective to take some pressure off of Warner. He will get plenty of touches Sunday.
Kansas City at Denver
These two teams expected to be contenders this season but both have fallen flat. The Broncos have lost two straight and one more loss would all but end their playoff chances. The Chiefs have dropped five in-a-row and need to hold on to some dignity and finish the season on a little bit of a run. Both of these teams tend to make mistakes at crucial moments. Denver won the first meeting in Kansas City earlier this season.
Stud: Kolby Smith, RB Kansas City. Smith topped 80 yards last week and has 233 yards and 2 TDs in two starts. The Broncos run defense is allowing 149.1 yards per game so Smith should have room to run.
Dud: Damon Huard, QB Kansas City. Huard has in injured hand but is expected to play. The Broncos pass defense is strong, ranking 9th in the league. Even when Huard is healthy, the Chiefs passing attack is second rate.
Sleeper: Travis Henry, RB Denver. Henry had 2 TD runs last week and won his appeal against the league to prevent him from being suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He should get the bulk of the carries for the Broncos. The Chiefs run defense is 21st in the league.
Pittsburgh at New England
The Patriots remained perfect with another last minute win against Baltimore last week. Meanwhile, the Steelers won another game in the rain and slop of Pittsburgh, downing the Bengals on Sunday night. Pittsburgh’s defense, which features multiple formations and zone blitzes, may be just the thing to contain Tom Brady and the Patriots high powered offense. Certainly on paper, this is the toughest remaining game New England faces.
Stud: Tom Brady, QB New England. Brady’s numbers haven’t been as overwhelming the past few weeks, but keeping up that pace was nearly impossible. He’s still in charge of the most potent passing attack in the league and should post solid numbers against a tough Steelers defense.
Dud: Laurence Maroney, RB New England. Maroney has just 29 carries in the last three games. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league against the run so don’t expect a lot of production from him on Sunday.
Sleeper: Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger has 25 TD passes and a passer rating over 100 this season. The Steelers will try to establish the run first, but they score TDs through the air and Roethlisberger will put up good if not great numbers vs. the Pats.
Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
The Browns lost a controversial game a week ago to the Cardinals when Braylon Edwards was ruled not to have been pushed out of bounds on the final play of the game. The Browns are 7-5 and still hold the final Wild Card spot in the AFC but they have little room for error if they hope to keep it. The Jets staved off embarrassment by beating Miami handily but they still have a long way to go as a team.
Stud: Derek Anderson, QB Cleveland. Anderson has thrown 24 TD passes despite not starting in week 1. Look for him to find plenty of chances against the Jets pass defense. The Browns attack simply has too many weapons for the Jets defensive backs to handle.
Dud: Cleveland Defense. The Browns have trouble stopping anybody. Stay away from this defense every week if possible.
Sleeper: Thomas Jones, RB N.Y. Jets. Jones scored his first TD of the season last week and had 75 yards rushing. The Browns defense is 28th in the league at stopping the run and the Jets would be wise to give Jones plenty of carries in an attempt to keep the Browns powerful offense off the field.
Sunday 8:15 PM ET
Indianapolis at Baltimore
The Colts are regaining their health on offense and have the inside track to the second seed and a first round bye in the playoffs. The Ravens are out of the playoff picture but gave the Patriots all they could handle last Monday. Kyle Boller will start at QB for the rest of the season. This may be his last chance to show he can still be Baltimore’s quaterback of the future.
Stud: Peyton Manning, QB Indianapolis. Manning is still deadly accurate and one of the best fantasy QBs out there. The Ravens defense is good but no longer as intimidating as it used to be. Manning should have a solid game against the Ravens 15th ranked pass defense.
Dud: Kyle Boller, QB Baltimore. Boller had 2 TDs and 210 yards against New England last week. That is probably his fantasy upside. The Colts have a good pass defense, ranked second in the league. They will make things tougher for Boller.
Sleeper: Willie McGahee, RB Baltimore. McGahee has scored a TD in each of the last seven games. He has gone over 1,000 yards for the season and has topped the 100-yard mark in two of the last three games. The Colts run defense is good but not great. The Ravens will feature McGahee and he will come through.
Monday 8:30 PM ET
New Orleans at Atlanta
When the schedule came out, this divisional clash looked like a great game. Now the Saints have come back to earth and Michael Vick is behind bars and the game features two sub-.500 teams. The Saints have to run the table to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card. The Falcons have a chance to show a national TV audience that they aren’t as bad as their record.
Stud: Drew Brees, QB New Orleans. Brees has 5 TDs in the last two games and is capable of a big game at any time. New Orleans struggles to run the ball so they will rely heavily on Brees and the passing attack to get things done.
Dud: Michael Jenkins, WR Atlanta. Don’t expect much from Jenkins despite his TD catch last week. The former first round pick has never developed into a consistent NFL receiver.
Sleeper: Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans. The Falcons can’t stop the run and Bush is the Saints favorite target in the passing game as well. If the former Heisman winner can have a big game, this should be it.
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