By Ralph Mancini, NFL Draft Bible
Decisions, decisions, decisions- is the name of the game in fantasy football drafts. Trying to determine which running back is most worthy of the dreaded third overall pick will undoubtedly be the source of many restless nights for several drafters this summer.
I’ve recently been burdened with the third pick in one of my money leagues, which holds its draft in two weeks.
With LaDanian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson off the board, there are a myriad of options to choose from.
Looking at your own rankings cheatsheet in this type of situation serves of little to no use. Overall rankings don’t tell you all you need to know about all of the possible pitfalls that lie ahead when picking player A or B.
After a couple of days of careful deliberation, I’ve narrowed down my choices to Larry Johnson, Frank Gore and Joseph Addai.
In addition to the fact that all three of them are under 30-years-old, each one of them authored dominating performances in 2006.
Who could forget Addai’s 171-yard, four TD masterpiece versus the Eagles?
I certainly can’t since I was the one who traded him for Thomas Jones only a week before and lost out on a win and 35 points…but I digress.
By the same token, all three come with major question marks, which in my eyes, put them all on equal footing.
In the case of Larry Johnson, I don’t see his recently resolved holdout being a negative for the 6’1, 228-pound bruiser.
If anything, two weeks of rest from the physical grind of training camp will probably do him some good in light of his 416 rushing attempts last season.
What really worries me about the former Nittany Lion is the team around him.
The coaching staff seems dead set on going with neophyte Brodie Croyle at quarterback, who thus far hasn’t looked all that sharp, throwing ill-advised interceptions in the preseason.
Add to that, the lack of a proven downfield threat at receiver, the retirement of future Hall of Fame guard Will Shields and the loss of left tackle Damion McIntosh to a knee injury and you can see what I’m driving at.
If things don’t get better in a hurry, Johnson won’t find too many cracks or crevices to squeeze through and with a treacherous early schedule including Chicago, the run-stuffing Minnesota Vikings, San Diego and Jacksonville, that’s a problem.
On the plus side, however, Johnson is one of the strongest backs in the league who has avoided major injury, despite absorbing constant punishment with his hard charging, full contact style of running.
Frank Gore isn’t as big as Johnson, but he makes up for that with his exceptional elusiveness.
His 5.4 yards-per-carry last year was tops among lead backs and with an already formidable offensive line only getting stronger with the presence of stud rookie Joe Staley, Gore could be looking at even more daylight in the coming months.
The 49ers should also see improvements from their skill position players, as heady quarterback Alex Smith has another year under his belt and Darrell Jackson gives them the proven receiver they’ve lacked since the departure of Terrell Owens.
So where’s the downside? It all boils down to injuries.
Along with tearing up ACL’s in both knees during his collegiate years, the 5’9, 215-pound dynamo has also endured multiple shoulder surgeries. Did I mention that he’s currently recovering from a broken hand?
Colts running back Joseph Addai is the youngest and least accomplished of the trio, but don’t use that against him when deciding where to rank the former LSU product.
Addai is a more than capable feature back even though he split time with Dominic Rhodes last season.
While only averaging 16 touches per game, Addai still ran for 1,081 yards with 325 additional yards receiving.
The departure of Rhodes to the Raiders means that the 24-year old will be the main man in the Colts backfield, which should translate into about at least 22 to 24 touches per contest. A 1,800-yard season in the high octane Indianapolis offense may be in the offing for the speedy Addai.
What we don’t know is exactly how much Addai will be used since coach Tony Dungy has always stated his preference for employing some sort of time share which may see Addai and backup DeDe Dorsey moving towards a 75/25 split.
Addai has also had his share of injury woes including knee troubles in college, which saw him undergo cartilage removal during his sophomore year.
Presented with all the aforementioned facts, I almost went with Larry Johnson due to his sturdy frame and relatively injury-free past.
Unfortunately for LJ, success in football is achieved collectively. One man alone does not turn the Rich Kotite Jets into the Bill Walsh 49ers.
Without a representative supporting cast around him, Johnson may see a dip in his production.
On the other side of the spectrum, Addai has an excellent group of athletes surrounding him- maybe too good.
The considerable amount of talent on the Colts may prevent the explosive runner from achieving the numbers expected from a number three overall pick.
That leaves me with Gore. The upside here is tremendous considering he put up over 2,000 combined yards, while missing parts of games and going through his personal fumbling travails during the early portion of 2006.
Coach Mike Nolan has already said that Gore will see an up-tick in carries this year, which leads me to proclaim him as my third pick- injuries and all.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Sunday, August 19, 2007
SUNDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK
Preseason Edition: Vol. 3
Rick Serritella
Don’t count out Brady Quinn just yet for that starting quarterback job in Cleveland. The rookie stated his case Saturday night, completing 13-of-20 passes for 155 yards, while tossing two touchdowns. He may be behind in terms of reps, but Quinn proved why he is already the best quarterback on the team.
There seems to be disagreement in Kansas City between GM Carl Peterson and head coach Herm Edwards. Peterson believes Damon Huard gives the team the best chance to win as starting quarterback. Edwards and offensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham want to throw second-year man Brodie Croyle into the fire and let him rip. A situation like this occurs every season and the outcome can dictate the success of your season. If Croyle plays well the rest of preseason, it looks to be his job.
The Tim Couch experiment didn’t last very long in Jacksonville, three weeks to be exact. The Jaguars had brought the former number one overall pick (’99-Cleveland) into camp for a look, but obviously weren’t too impressed. Look for Couch to resurface next season with the startup All-American Football League.
Denver suffered a major blow in their 31-20 loss to Dallas on Saturday, as both Travis Henry and Mike Bell left the game due to injury. Henry suffered a sprain left knee and is expected to have an MRI Sunday. Bell re-aggravated a hip injury. Head coach Mike Shanahan sounded confident Henry would be ready for the start of the season in his post-game press conference, but in the meantime be sure to have Cecil Sapp on your fantasy radar.
One has to wonder what in the world head coach Cam Cameron is thinking down in Miami. The decision to let Ronnie Brown test out his kick return skills during the preseason is a move that could have turned fatal. Risking your starting running back on special teams is dangerous. The two words that first come to mind are Jason Sehorn. What’s even more mind-boggling is that Cameron is considering using Brown on kick returns during the season.
Flying under the radar in San Diego is wide receiver Vincent Jackson. Many fantasy owners are aware of his bust-out potential, but what they fail to realize is that Jackson could very well be a top-ten fantasy producing wide out- a definite mid-round steal for your fantasy draft this season.
James Jones has emerged as the Packers number three wide out and with Greg Jennings having trouble staying healthy, the third round pick out of San Jose Sate could make some noise this season. In deeper leagues, James could have some value as a reserve.
Another player we will continue to monitor is Marques Hagans of the Rams. The second-year quarterback turned wide out has looked impressive thus far in camp. He continues to lead the pack as the number three/slot receiver in St. Louis.
TEN GUYS WE LIKE…
• Jay Cutler – Should sneak into the top ten fantasy quarterbacks when the season is all said and done.
• Joey Harrington – Could put up some surprising numbers with talented offense around him.
• Daunte Culpepper – Worth a flier if he’s available with your final pick.
• Brandon Jacobs – Will step into fantasy stud status this season.
• Tatum Bell – Could explode in Mike Martz’s offense as long as he learns not to put the ball on the ground.
• Warrick Dunn – Downgraded due to injury by most fantasy owners, you can nab Dunn as a bargain during the middle of your draft. He’s still good for 1,000 yards.
• Tony Hunt – Great value in touchdown and dynasty leagues. Look for the rookie to see the majority of goal line touches for Philly.
• Ronald Curry – Will learn how to find the end zone this season.
• Wes Welker – Could see a lot of touchdowns in that slot role.
• Owen Daniels – Will improve upon the five touchdowns of a year ago in an offense that plans on using the tight end in an extensive role.
TEN GUYS WE DON'T LIKE…
• Donovan McNabb – The ultimate risk/reward player. A stud when healthy but knees just not what they used to be.
• Brodie Croyle – The kid has a laser, but his inexperience will cost him.
• Jason Campbell – The bruised left knee Campbell suffered in preseason didn’t help his draft status any.
• Clinton Portis – Look for carries to decrease significantly with the emergence of Ladell Betts as a bona-fide runner.
• Laurence Maroney – Seems to be too much question surrounding the rehabbed shoulder and that kind of uncertainty doesn’t warrant the high round price tag that Maroney commands.
• Chris Henry – The Titans first round pick has bust written all over him. Look for Chris Brown to be the man in Tennessee.
• Matt Jones – Streaky and injury-prone, two things you should avoid in fantasy football.
• Samie Parker – Was given every opportunity to seize the starting job while Dwayne Bowe held out and failed to capitalize.
• Greg Olsen – Will show flashes of brilliance but will be hard to get consistency on a weekly basis with the presence of Desmond Clark.
• L.J. Smith – Dealing with an array of injuries, better options available.
To check the complete Sunday Morning Quarterback archive be dure to visit The NFL Draft Bible website.
For additional information on the above topics or information on the All-American Football League, you can email Rick Serritella at ric@nfldraftbible.com
Rick Serritella
Don’t count out Brady Quinn just yet for that starting quarterback job in Cleveland. The rookie stated his case Saturday night, completing 13-of-20 passes for 155 yards, while tossing two touchdowns. He may be behind in terms of reps, but Quinn proved why he is already the best quarterback on the team.
There seems to be disagreement in Kansas City between GM Carl Peterson and head coach Herm Edwards. Peterson believes Damon Huard gives the team the best chance to win as starting quarterback. Edwards and offensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham want to throw second-year man Brodie Croyle into the fire and let him rip. A situation like this occurs every season and the outcome can dictate the success of your season. If Croyle plays well the rest of preseason, it looks to be his job.
The Tim Couch experiment didn’t last very long in Jacksonville, three weeks to be exact. The Jaguars had brought the former number one overall pick (’99-Cleveland) into camp for a look, but obviously weren’t too impressed. Look for Couch to resurface next season with the startup All-American Football League.
Denver suffered a major blow in their 31-20 loss to Dallas on Saturday, as both Travis Henry and Mike Bell left the game due to injury. Henry suffered a sprain left knee and is expected to have an MRI Sunday. Bell re-aggravated a hip injury. Head coach Mike Shanahan sounded confident Henry would be ready for the start of the season in his post-game press conference, but in the meantime be sure to have Cecil Sapp on your fantasy radar.
One has to wonder what in the world head coach Cam Cameron is thinking down in Miami. The decision to let Ronnie Brown test out his kick return skills during the preseason is a move that could have turned fatal. Risking your starting running back on special teams is dangerous. The two words that first come to mind are Jason Sehorn. What’s even more mind-boggling is that Cameron is considering using Brown on kick returns during the season.
Flying under the radar in San Diego is wide receiver Vincent Jackson. Many fantasy owners are aware of his bust-out potential, but what they fail to realize is that Jackson could very well be a top-ten fantasy producing wide out- a definite mid-round steal for your fantasy draft this season.
James Jones has emerged as the Packers number three wide out and with Greg Jennings having trouble staying healthy, the third round pick out of San Jose Sate could make some noise this season. In deeper leagues, James could have some value as a reserve.
Another player we will continue to monitor is Marques Hagans of the Rams. The second-year quarterback turned wide out has looked impressive thus far in camp. He continues to lead the pack as the number three/slot receiver in St. Louis.
TEN GUYS WE LIKE…
• Jay Cutler – Should sneak into the top ten fantasy quarterbacks when the season is all said and done.
• Joey Harrington – Could put up some surprising numbers with talented offense around him.
• Daunte Culpepper – Worth a flier if he’s available with your final pick.
• Brandon Jacobs – Will step into fantasy stud status this season.
• Tatum Bell – Could explode in Mike Martz’s offense as long as he learns not to put the ball on the ground.
• Warrick Dunn – Downgraded due to injury by most fantasy owners, you can nab Dunn as a bargain during the middle of your draft. He’s still good for 1,000 yards.
• Tony Hunt – Great value in touchdown and dynasty leagues. Look for the rookie to see the majority of goal line touches for Philly.
• Ronald Curry – Will learn how to find the end zone this season.
• Wes Welker – Could see a lot of touchdowns in that slot role.
• Owen Daniels – Will improve upon the five touchdowns of a year ago in an offense that plans on using the tight end in an extensive role.
TEN GUYS WE DON'T LIKE…
• Donovan McNabb – The ultimate risk/reward player. A stud when healthy but knees just not what they used to be.
• Brodie Croyle – The kid has a laser, but his inexperience will cost him.
• Jason Campbell – The bruised left knee Campbell suffered in preseason didn’t help his draft status any.
• Clinton Portis – Look for carries to decrease significantly with the emergence of Ladell Betts as a bona-fide runner.
• Laurence Maroney – Seems to be too much question surrounding the rehabbed shoulder and that kind of uncertainty doesn’t warrant the high round price tag that Maroney commands.
• Chris Henry – The Titans first round pick has bust written all over him. Look for Chris Brown to be the man in Tennessee.
• Matt Jones – Streaky and injury-prone, two things you should avoid in fantasy football.
• Samie Parker – Was given every opportunity to seize the starting job while Dwayne Bowe held out and failed to capitalize.
• Greg Olsen – Will show flashes of brilliance but will be hard to get consistency on a weekly basis with the presence of Desmond Clark.
• L.J. Smith – Dealing with an array of injuries, better options available.
To check the complete Sunday Morning Quarterback archive be dure to visit The NFL Draft Bible website.
For additional information on the above topics or information on the All-American Football League, you can email Rick Serritella at ric@nfldraftbible.com
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
THE PHIL ELETTO TOP 100
These rankings are for basic scoring formats. Tight end’s have been ranked as wide receivers, so figure a 5% bump in value if your league mandates a tight end.
1 LaDanian Tomlinson: Don’t expect last year, but if you have any doubt, I want to be in your league
2 Steven Jackson: Pure monster, the coaching staff knows it and the system exploits it
3 Shaun Alexander: Let them worry about last year and his 30 years of age, we were talking about him last year like we talk about Tomlinson this year
4 Larry Johnson: For my money, this is a much better soap-opera than the Vick case--at least it’s all football related
5 Travis Henry: Too many things have to go wrong for him to not earn this. They say Moss needed a change of scenery?
6 Frank Gore: Opposite of Alexander--how quickly we forget his injury plagued past. I just want less risk in this slot. The later he lasts, the better I like him.
7 Reggie Bush: Too many weapons to be higher, but too much talent to go lower. Yardage/points per game makes him 5 overall
8 Willis McGahee: I am absolutely drooling over his upside this year
9 Joseph Addai: Flip-flop with Henry if Tarik Glenn plays, which does not seem likely
10 Peyton Manning: Money in the bank, but I have a hard time taking him before the RB's in front of him (and a few behind, if on the clock)
11 Laurence Maroney: A younger, stronger Westbrook. How much of the good Westbrook vs the bad is the question
12 Steve Smith: Will get you points in every game he is in, which is any time he can walk
13 Brian Westbrook: Injury waiting to happen, but an all-category monster when on the field. Points per catch or yardage leagues bump him up 5 spots
14 Rudy Johnson: Quietly does his thing year after year to little or no fanfare
15 Willie Parker: Love him in yardage leagues. Barlow and Davenport may snag a few more short touchdowns than Parker owners can handle
16 Clinton Portis: Expect a repeat of last year, except for his alter-ego's
17 Chad Johnson: This is the year he puts it all together
18 Carson Palmer: Rather have him here than pay the price for Peyton
19 Edgerrin James: Last year’s expectations come to fruition this year
20 Tory Holt: All is happy as can be in Ram-land. He should mirror last year’s numbers
21 Terrell Owens: Do you feel lucky? Better upside than any receiver but Smith and Ocho Cinco but with more risk, so I wuss out on this one
22 Marvin Harrison: I need to see the slowdown year before worrying about making him my #1 WR.He is like that security blanket from childhood.
23 Reggie Wayne: More upside than Harrison, but I won’t bet against Marvin
24 Cedric Benson: All alone, but is that a good thing, and is the entire Bears offense jekyll or hyde? Last of the clear cut starters, so take note of the rise in volatility and question marks from here on out, but he could be this year’s Frank Gore
25 Larry Fitzgerald: Sick talent + being surrounded by very good talent at the skill positions = no brainer
26 Roy Williams: The decision between him and Fitzgerald is like the decision between a brunette with a perfect body vs. a blonde with…
27 Brandon Jacobs: LaMont Jordan with more upside
28 Drew Brees: Having Bush puts him ahead of Brady (get your mind out of the gutter!)
29 Marques Colston: I so badly want to put him higher, but can’t tell you to do so, to the chagrin of our own Dr. Bill Chackes
30 Javon Walker: This offense will break records (figuratively) or hearts. Although the former is an exaggeration, that is my bet
31 Carnell Williams: He is another guy that has the talent and could surprise if your looking for upside. With all the noise about the quarterback situation, he may slip
32 Maurice Jones-Drew: This guy can get it done, likely earning more than this slot
33 Ronnie Brown: Trent Green staying healthy improves Brown's standing considerably
34 Andre Johnson: Expect a repeat of last year. Ever use him in Madden? He is a monster!
35 Duece McAllister: The quietest 10 Touchdowns, 1,000 yards of '06
36 Tom Brady: It’s not hard to imagine a 5-10% increase last year’s numbers, but you will have to pay for it. I pass
37 Thomas Jones: Still don’t understand why he came so cheap. Helps you more in yardage leagues than touchdown leagues
38 Jamal Lewis: Few go to Cleveland looking for the Fountain of Youth, but he has a year or two left
39 Ahman Green: New team, new system, can put up numbers when healthy
40 Anquan Boldin: He never hurts you unless he is hurt himself
41 DeAngelo Williams: Has all the ability in the world, and it sure is fun to watch him exploit the room Smith opens up
42 Lamont Jordan: zzzzz. Do we hear sleeper? There is no "sleeper" per se anymore so look at him as unexpected/cheap sources of points.
43 Chester Taylor: Loved him until Adrian Peterson got drafted
44 Antonio Gates: As much fun as you can have owning a tight end
45 Randy Moss: I am pumped if I can get him here
46 Marshawn Lynch: $75 million invested in the offensive line, and not a ton of attention on him because of the expectation of "running back by committee." C'mon, are you scared of 100 year old Anthony Thomas?
47 Fred Taylor: Where once you couldn’t keep him ON the field, now we can’t get him off of it
48 Marion Barber: Was a Bill Parcells favorite, if he couldn't wrestle job from Jones then he won’t start now. It will take Wade Phillips half the season to figure out what Parcells ultimately did--Julius Jones cannot handle a starting gig
49 Marc Bulger: Bruises as easily as a peach, but can be as lethal as QBs 10-15 spots higher
50 Hines Ward: Been up and down last few years, but with a stabilized offense expect the "up"
51 Adrian Peterson: Are we all getting too excited given the $$ they paid Taylor and Peterson’s injury history? I smell a two-headed running back
52 Calvin Johnson: Rookies back to back. Selecting a rookie WR this early is unprecedented but warranted. Swing for the fences, look at the guys below, maybe one of the guys below slips to your next pick--you are set.
53 Donovan McNabb: 75% as of 8/1, that’s not a ringing endorsement, but it’s too early to go jumping off any bridges.
54 Kevin Jones: He's the type of guy that will bust out when everyone least expects it. You can get him here, zero downside other than that chronic foot, and Tatum Bell getting a fire under his…
55 TJ Houshmandzadeh: Best name since Tshimanga Biakabutuka and he’s a great receiver who will only benefit from Chris Henry's stupidity
56 Donald Driver: I want any WR that is Brett Favre's favorite target
57 Lee Evans: Would not be surprised if he finishes the season up to 20 spots higher, but I am not a J.P. Losman fan at all
58 Santana Moss: Not feeling the Redskins offense, but someone will put up #3 WR numbers and he has the best chance at them
59 Jon Kitna: Liked him last year, LOVE him this year
60 Plaxico Burress: So tired of this story--million dollar skills, ten cent head. As a number two, he could disappoint, as a #3 you will be thrilled.
61 Deion Branch: Got the number one gig and this offense should be a pleasant surprise
62 Brandon Jackson: Morency starting will only last a 1/4 of the season, and their O line is no prize
63 Laveranues Coles: Going to get a million balls thrown his way
64 Chris Chambers: Whenever his quarterback can get him the ball, he has exploded
65 Braylon Edwards: see Chris Chambers, only the quarterback situation is not nearly as optimistic
66 Vincent Jackson: Red zone monster
67 Reggie Brown: Ton of talent, it is a shame his value is tied to Donovan McNabb's health
68 Jay Cutler: Like Travis Henry, too many things need to go wrong for him to fail. No sure thing but they will not be looking insert Patrick Ramsey unless its an emergency
69 Joey Galloway: He keeps on going, but I don’t want to be left holding the pieces when his production dries up
70 Mark Clayton: Has to love the arrival of Willis McGahee, which will give him a fighting chance to run free
71 Tatum Bell: Martz loves him, but the evil genius is no friend to running backs
*At this point there is a considerable drop off in talent other than quarterbacks, Defenses/Individual defensive players/Kickers. If you don’t have a quarterback or have to play a TE, you have waited long enough. If you have any means of moving 2 picks for 1 to move up, do so.
72 Jerious Norwood: He will get his chance to start out of the gate, but any Falcon will have to come cheap for me
73 Todd Heap: Owners never complain or rejoice, but he is a tight end, what do you expect?
74 Ladell Betts: Clinton Portis always gives the backup a game or two of value
75 Matt Hasselbeck: Why is he falling so far?
76 Tony Gonzalez: Chiefs wide receivers scare nobody, so the passing game is his to rule
77 Darrell Jackson: Hardly the missing piece, but brings valuable experience and talent, just has to stay out of the trainer’s room
78 Matt Leinart: Let’s not go nuts, but this season he should be a pleasure to own
79 Vince Young: Betting on a sophomore slump
80 Muhsin Muhammad: He is getting the majority of the balls regardless, but a successful QB means high scoring offense. If not you have too many low scoring games
81 LenDale White: His value is the opposite of his scale readings, meaning weight up, fortunes down
82 Phillip Rivers: Poor man’s Drew Brees with more mobility
83 Kevin Curtis: Perfect fit with plenty of upside as Brown has had trouble staying healthy
84 DeShaun Foster: Starting and talented but "fragile" must be Italian
85 Devery Henderson: Departure of Joe Horn allows his skills to shine and be the forgotten man alongside Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and company
86 Donte Stallworth: A polished version of Devery Henderson, but the WR glut hurts more than Tom Brady helps. Always seems to be nicked up
87 Chris Brown: Another "good if on the field but…" and may lose job if LenDale White learns to lay off the White Castle
88 Jerricho Cotchery: Flew under the radar everywhere but New York, can he do it again?
89 Vernand Morency: Will get the numbers at the end of the season, but if you owned him you will wonder when those points came
90 D.J. Hackett: Another great value pick. Years ago they would label him a sleeper
91 Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Tight end rule. Always had the talent, I think he will start to show it this year
92 Greg Jennings: Great chemistry with Favre and little depth after him
93 Santonio Holmes: He has had time to marinate in the offense and Pittsburgh passing game will surprise
94 Bernard Berrian: Speed to burn but how many points will the Bears score? If you haven't guessed it, I’m down on the Bears offense across the board
95 Troy Williamson: At this point would you prefer to have some retread veteran or a guy with an extra helping of upside. I will take the upside hold the onions (and hopefully the dropsies)
96 Ben Roethlisberger: Got a really solid feeling on him this year, he should be cheap as well
97 Chris Cooley: Love his versatility and his prominence in the offense, but how good will it be?
98 Terry Glenn: HE doesn’t have all that much upside per se, but unpredictability of Owens OR coverage he draws--either way Owens helps him.
99 Brett Favre: Captain obvious comment of the board--If upright he will be slinging. Running game is no given and neither is the defense.
100 Leon Washington: A much younger version of Warrick Dunn which means lots of yards, some BIG plays, limited touchdowns
1 LaDanian Tomlinson: Don’t expect last year, but if you have any doubt, I want to be in your league
2 Steven Jackson: Pure monster, the coaching staff knows it and the system exploits it
3 Shaun Alexander: Let them worry about last year and his 30 years of age, we were talking about him last year like we talk about Tomlinson this year
4 Larry Johnson: For my money, this is a much better soap-opera than the Vick case--at least it’s all football related
5 Travis Henry: Too many things have to go wrong for him to not earn this. They say Moss needed a change of scenery?
6 Frank Gore: Opposite of Alexander--how quickly we forget his injury plagued past. I just want less risk in this slot. The later he lasts, the better I like him.
7 Reggie Bush: Too many weapons to be higher, but too much talent to go lower. Yardage/points per game makes him 5 overall
8 Willis McGahee: I am absolutely drooling over his upside this year
9 Joseph Addai: Flip-flop with Henry if Tarik Glenn plays, which does not seem likely
10 Peyton Manning: Money in the bank, but I have a hard time taking him before the RB's in front of him (and a few behind, if on the clock)
11 Laurence Maroney: A younger, stronger Westbrook. How much of the good Westbrook vs the bad is the question
12 Steve Smith: Will get you points in every game he is in, which is any time he can walk
13 Brian Westbrook: Injury waiting to happen, but an all-category monster when on the field. Points per catch or yardage leagues bump him up 5 spots
14 Rudy Johnson: Quietly does his thing year after year to little or no fanfare
15 Willie Parker: Love him in yardage leagues. Barlow and Davenport may snag a few more short touchdowns than Parker owners can handle
16 Clinton Portis: Expect a repeat of last year, except for his alter-ego's
17 Chad Johnson: This is the year he puts it all together
18 Carson Palmer: Rather have him here than pay the price for Peyton
19 Edgerrin James: Last year’s expectations come to fruition this year
20 Tory Holt: All is happy as can be in Ram-land. He should mirror last year’s numbers
21 Terrell Owens: Do you feel lucky? Better upside than any receiver but Smith and Ocho Cinco but with more risk, so I wuss out on this one
22 Marvin Harrison: I need to see the slowdown year before worrying about making him my #1 WR.He is like that security blanket from childhood.
23 Reggie Wayne: More upside than Harrison, but I won’t bet against Marvin
24 Cedric Benson: All alone, but is that a good thing, and is the entire Bears offense jekyll or hyde? Last of the clear cut starters, so take note of the rise in volatility and question marks from here on out, but he could be this year’s Frank Gore
25 Larry Fitzgerald: Sick talent + being surrounded by very good talent at the skill positions = no brainer
26 Roy Williams: The decision between him and Fitzgerald is like the decision between a brunette with a perfect body vs. a blonde with…
27 Brandon Jacobs: LaMont Jordan with more upside
28 Drew Brees: Having Bush puts him ahead of Brady (get your mind out of the gutter!)
29 Marques Colston: I so badly want to put him higher, but can’t tell you to do so, to the chagrin of our own Dr. Bill Chackes
30 Javon Walker: This offense will break records (figuratively) or hearts. Although the former is an exaggeration, that is my bet
31 Carnell Williams: He is another guy that has the talent and could surprise if your looking for upside. With all the noise about the quarterback situation, he may slip
32 Maurice Jones-Drew: This guy can get it done, likely earning more than this slot
33 Ronnie Brown: Trent Green staying healthy improves Brown's standing considerably
34 Andre Johnson: Expect a repeat of last year. Ever use him in Madden? He is a monster!
35 Duece McAllister: The quietest 10 Touchdowns, 1,000 yards of '06
36 Tom Brady: It’s not hard to imagine a 5-10% increase last year’s numbers, but you will have to pay for it. I pass
37 Thomas Jones: Still don’t understand why he came so cheap. Helps you more in yardage leagues than touchdown leagues
38 Jamal Lewis: Few go to Cleveland looking for the Fountain of Youth, but he has a year or two left
39 Ahman Green: New team, new system, can put up numbers when healthy
40 Anquan Boldin: He never hurts you unless he is hurt himself
41 DeAngelo Williams: Has all the ability in the world, and it sure is fun to watch him exploit the room Smith opens up
42 Lamont Jordan: zzzzz. Do we hear sleeper? There is no "sleeper" per se anymore so look at him as unexpected/cheap sources of points.
43 Chester Taylor: Loved him until Adrian Peterson got drafted
44 Antonio Gates: As much fun as you can have owning a tight end
45 Randy Moss: I am pumped if I can get him here
46 Marshawn Lynch: $75 million invested in the offensive line, and not a ton of attention on him because of the expectation of "running back by committee." C'mon, are you scared of 100 year old Anthony Thomas?
47 Fred Taylor: Where once you couldn’t keep him ON the field, now we can’t get him off of it
48 Marion Barber: Was a Bill Parcells favorite, if he couldn't wrestle job from Jones then he won’t start now. It will take Wade Phillips half the season to figure out what Parcells ultimately did--Julius Jones cannot handle a starting gig
49 Marc Bulger: Bruises as easily as a peach, but can be as lethal as QBs 10-15 spots higher
50 Hines Ward: Been up and down last few years, but with a stabilized offense expect the "up"
51 Adrian Peterson: Are we all getting too excited given the $$ they paid Taylor and Peterson’s injury history? I smell a two-headed running back
52 Calvin Johnson: Rookies back to back. Selecting a rookie WR this early is unprecedented but warranted. Swing for the fences, look at the guys below, maybe one of the guys below slips to your next pick--you are set.
53 Donovan McNabb: 75% as of 8/1, that’s not a ringing endorsement, but it’s too early to go jumping off any bridges.
54 Kevin Jones: He's the type of guy that will bust out when everyone least expects it. You can get him here, zero downside other than that chronic foot, and Tatum Bell getting a fire under his…
55 TJ Houshmandzadeh: Best name since Tshimanga Biakabutuka and he’s a great receiver who will only benefit from Chris Henry's stupidity
56 Donald Driver: I want any WR that is Brett Favre's favorite target
57 Lee Evans: Would not be surprised if he finishes the season up to 20 spots higher, but I am not a J.P. Losman fan at all
58 Santana Moss: Not feeling the Redskins offense, but someone will put up #3 WR numbers and he has the best chance at them
59 Jon Kitna: Liked him last year, LOVE him this year
60 Plaxico Burress: So tired of this story--million dollar skills, ten cent head. As a number two, he could disappoint, as a #3 you will be thrilled.
61 Deion Branch: Got the number one gig and this offense should be a pleasant surprise
62 Brandon Jackson: Morency starting will only last a 1/4 of the season, and their O line is no prize
63 Laveranues Coles: Going to get a million balls thrown his way
64 Chris Chambers: Whenever his quarterback can get him the ball, he has exploded
65 Braylon Edwards: see Chris Chambers, only the quarterback situation is not nearly as optimistic
66 Vincent Jackson: Red zone monster
67 Reggie Brown: Ton of talent, it is a shame his value is tied to Donovan McNabb's health
68 Jay Cutler: Like Travis Henry, too many things need to go wrong for him to fail. No sure thing but they will not be looking insert Patrick Ramsey unless its an emergency
69 Joey Galloway: He keeps on going, but I don’t want to be left holding the pieces when his production dries up
70 Mark Clayton: Has to love the arrival of Willis McGahee, which will give him a fighting chance to run free
71 Tatum Bell: Martz loves him, but the evil genius is no friend to running backs
*At this point there is a considerable drop off in talent other than quarterbacks, Defenses/Individual defensive players/Kickers. If you don’t have a quarterback or have to play a TE, you have waited long enough. If you have any means of moving 2 picks for 1 to move up, do so.
72 Jerious Norwood: He will get his chance to start out of the gate, but any Falcon will have to come cheap for me
73 Todd Heap: Owners never complain or rejoice, but he is a tight end, what do you expect?
74 Ladell Betts: Clinton Portis always gives the backup a game or two of value
75 Matt Hasselbeck: Why is he falling so far?
76 Tony Gonzalez: Chiefs wide receivers scare nobody, so the passing game is his to rule
77 Darrell Jackson: Hardly the missing piece, but brings valuable experience and talent, just has to stay out of the trainer’s room
78 Matt Leinart: Let’s not go nuts, but this season he should be a pleasure to own
79 Vince Young: Betting on a sophomore slump
80 Muhsin Muhammad: He is getting the majority of the balls regardless, but a successful QB means high scoring offense. If not you have too many low scoring games
81 LenDale White: His value is the opposite of his scale readings, meaning weight up, fortunes down
82 Phillip Rivers: Poor man’s Drew Brees with more mobility
83 Kevin Curtis: Perfect fit with plenty of upside as Brown has had trouble staying healthy
84 DeShaun Foster: Starting and talented but "fragile" must be Italian
85 Devery Henderson: Departure of Joe Horn allows his skills to shine and be the forgotten man alongside Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and company
86 Donte Stallworth: A polished version of Devery Henderson, but the WR glut hurts more than Tom Brady helps. Always seems to be nicked up
87 Chris Brown: Another "good if on the field but…" and may lose job if LenDale White learns to lay off the White Castle
88 Jerricho Cotchery: Flew under the radar everywhere but New York, can he do it again?
89 Vernand Morency: Will get the numbers at the end of the season, but if you owned him you will wonder when those points came
90 D.J. Hackett: Another great value pick. Years ago they would label him a sleeper
91 Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Tight end rule. Always had the talent, I think he will start to show it this year
92 Greg Jennings: Great chemistry with Favre and little depth after him
93 Santonio Holmes: He has had time to marinate in the offense and Pittsburgh passing game will surprise
94 Bernard Berrian: Speed to burn but how many points will the Bears score? If you haven't guessed it, I’m down on the Bears offense across the board
95 Troy Williamson: At this point would you prefer to have some retread veteran or a guy with an extra helping of upside. I will take the upside hold the onions (and hopefully the dropsies)
96 Ben Roethlisberger: Got a really solid feeling on him this year, he should be cheap as well
97 Chris Cooley: Love his versatility and his prominence in the offense, but how good will it be?
98 Terry Glenn: HE doesn’t have all that much upside per se, but unpredictability of Owens OR coverage he draws--either way Owens helps him.
99 Brett Favre: Captain obvious comment of the board--If upright he will be slinging. Running game is no given and neither is the defense.
100 Leon Washington: A much younger version of Warrick Dunn which means lots of yards, some BIG plays, limited touchdowns
Monday, August 13, 2007
QUARTERBACKS IN THE WINGS
By The Fantasy Trader, NFL Draft Bible
Have you ever tried to explain Fantasy Football to someone who has never played? Well, we draft real players and form a team that competes each week. Fantasy Football is like being a real owner. If this were true, then why does the fantasy quarterback get the shaft?
Just about the entire first round will be running backs. Part of the reason for this is that there is so much depth at the quarterback position. Tony Romo, Vince Young, Jeff Garcia, David Garrard and Jay Cutler started the season as backups, but got the full-time gig and made serious contributions. So much is made of the backup running back, but let’s see who might breakout in the backup quarterback role.
David Carr, Carolina Panthers-- Has there ever been a better example of losing your job and it being considered a good career move? Carr picked himself up off the ground 41 times last year. Despite the lack of protection he still managed to complete 68.3% of his passes and is only 28 years old. Now he’s in Carolina backing up Jake Delhomme, who struggled last year and will have a short leash to start 07. Carr has more mobility than Delhomme and arguably as good an arm. The one thing he never had was Delhomme’s surrounding talent.
Gus Frerotte, St. Louis Rams-- It seems that Frerotte always finds his way behind center. Marc Bulger played all sixteen games last year for the first time in his career and was limited to eight games in 2005. Frerotte made the most with his surrounding talent in Miami. If you have a disposable roster spot, Bulger owners might want to consider drafting Frerotte as an insurance policy. At the very least, he is worth a waiver pick as a viable fantasy option should Bulger go down.
Brady Quinn, Cleveland Browns-- After missing nearly two weeks of training camp, it appears Quinn has no shot at starting the season as the Browns quarterback. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson will compete for the starting job. Last season, the two combined to throw just 15 TDs and 25 INTs. Quinn has learned under Charlie Weis and has the mobility and arm strength to make an immediate impact. The Browns are preaching patience, but so were the Titans and Cardinals last season. Chances are he starts before mid-season.
Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs-- He will probably be the week one starter for the Chiefs, but that doesn’t mean he will get drafted in your league. The fact that there is a quarterback debate between Huard and rookie Brody Croyle is mind-boggling. In ten games last season, Huard threw 11 TDs and just 1 INT. Assuming Larry Johnson returns, he also makes every passing game a little bit better. With a weak offensive line, veteran leadership is a must.
Kellen Clemens, New York Jets-- The Jets should just call this guy Pennington number two. His game is eerily similar, as he possesses the same frame and has shown acute accuracy. Clemens seems to also possess a stronger arm of the two. Pennington did play sixteen games last season, but only played in twenty-three during the three prior seasons. Clemens was explosive at Oregon where he threw 41 TDs over his last two seasons. The Jets have veteran wide receivers, which will help with his transition should the opportunity present itself.
The name has changed to protect the innocent. The Fantasy Trader will give you the inside access into league developments to help keep you ahead of your fantasy competition.
Email him at: fantasytrader@nfldraftbible.com
Have you ever tried to explain Fantasy Football to someone who has never played? Well, we draft real players and form a team that competes each week. Fantasy Football is like being a real owner. If this were true, then why does the fantasy quarterback get the shaft?
Just about the entire first round will be running backs. Part of the reason for this is that there is so much depth at the quarterback position. Tony Romo, Vince Young, Jeff Garcia, David Garrard and Jay Cutler started the season as backups, but got the full-time gig and made serious contributions. So much is made of the backup running back, but let’s see who might breakout in the backup quarterback role.
David Carr, Carolina Panthers-- Has there ever been a better example of losing your job and it being considered a good career move? Carr picked himself up off the ground 41 times last year. Despite the lack of protection he still managed to complete 68.3% of his passes and is only 28 years old. Now he’s in Carolina backing up Jake Delhomme, who struggled last year and will have a short leash to start 07. Carr has more mobility than Delhomme and arguably as good an arm. The one thing he never had was Delhomme’s surrounding talent.
Gus Frerotte, St. Louis Rams-- It seems that Frerotte always finds his way behind center. Marc Bulger played all sixteen games last year for the first time in his career and was limited to eight games in 2005. Frerotte made the most with his surrounding talent in Miami. If you have a disposable roster spot, Bulger owners might want to consider drafting Frerotte as an insurance policy. At the very least, he is worth a waiver pick as a viable fantasy option should Bulger go down.
Brady Quinn, Cleveland Browns-- After missing nearly two weeks of training camp, it appears Quinn has no shot at starting the season as the Browns quarterback. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson will compete for the starting job. Last season, the two combined to throw just 15 TDs and 25 INTs. Quinn has learned under Charlie Weis and has the mobility and arm strength to make an immediate impact. The Browns are preaching patience, but so were the Titans and Cardinals last season. Chances are he starts before mid-season.
Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs-- He will probably be the week one starter for the Chiefs, but that doesn’t mean he will get drafted in your league. The fact that there is a quarterback debate between Huard and rookie Brody Croyle is mind-boggling. In ten games last season, Huard threw 11 TDs and just 1 INT. Assuming Larry Johnson returns, he also makes every passing game a little bit better. With a weak offensive line, veteran leadership is a must.
Kellen Clemens, New York Jets-- The Jets should just call this guy Pennington number two. His game is eerily similar, as he possesses the same frame and has shown acute accuracy. Clemens seems to also possess a stronger arm of the two. Pennington did play sixteen games last season, but only played in twenty-three during the three prior seasons. Clemens was explosive at Oregon where he threw 41 TDs over his last two seasons. The Jets have veteran wide receivers, which will help with his transition should the opportunity present itself.
The name has changed to protect the innocent. The Fantasy Trader will give you the inside access into league developments to help keep you ahead of your fantasy competition.
Email him at: fantasytrader@nfldraftbible.com
Friday, August 10, 2007
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: JEFF FRANCOEUR ON FF
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: JEFF FRANCOEUR ON FF
By Daniel Mogollon, NFL Draft Bible
With all the off the field trouble those involved in professional sports have gotten themselves into of late, teams should encourage fantasy sports as way to have some clean fun, something many athletes are already doing.
Before the Atlanta Braves took the field to take on the New York Mets on Tuesday, Jeff Francoeur gave the NFL Draft Bible a few minutes of his time in the visiting team’s dugout. He is almost as excited about the upcoming football season, as he is the Braves’ playoff push.
“I got all my books and I’m scouting now. I should be ready to go,” Francoeur said of his preparation for his league’s Fantasy Football Draft. “I had a disappointing year last year, I’m going to be honest with you. I got knocked out of the playoffs early, so I need to come back strong this year.”
Francoeur takes pride in his knowledge of football, especially considering he was a four-star recruit according to Rivals and was set to go to Clemson, before the hometown Atlanta Braves made him a first round draft choice. As a corner, he ran a 4.5 40-time and could have teamed with Justin Miller on the Tigers, who Francoeur says he follows intently.
“We have a fun league, so it should be a good time,” the athletic right fielder says of the Braves in-house fantasy league, which usually consists of 12 to 14 players.
In addition to keeping players out of trouble -- if you owned a team, wouldn’t you rather have your players yelling at their TV for LaDainian Tomlinson to score a touchdown than with a fist full of cash outside a pit-bull ring? -- it helps build team camaraderie.
“It’s a blast, we come in talking trash all the time, even during the off-season,” Francoeur said. “It’s a great way to keep in touch with guys through e-mail.”
* A special thanks goes out to LatinoSports.com, for allowing Dan to do this interview while on assignment covering the Mets.
By Daniel Mogollon, NFL Draft Bible
With all the off the field trouble those involved in professional sports have gotten themselves into of late, teams should encourage fantasy sports as way to have some clean fun, something many athletes are already doing.
Before the Atlanta Braves took the field to take on the New York Mets on Tuesday, Jeff Francoeur gave the NFL Draft Bible a few minutes of his time in the visiting team’s dugout. He is almost as excited about the upcoming football season, as he is the Braves’ playoff push.
“I got all my books and I’m scouting now. I should be ready to go,” Francoeur said of his preparation for his league’s Fantasy Football Draft. “I had a disappointing year last year, I’m going to be honest with you. I got knocked out of the playoffs early, so I need to come back strong this year.”
Francoeur takes pride in his knowledge of football, especially considering he was a four-star recruit according to Rivals and was set to go to Clemson, before the hometown Atlanta Braves made him a first round draft choice. As a corner, he ran a 4.5 40-time and could have teamed with Justin Miller on the Tigers, who Francoeur says he follows intently.
“We have a fun league, so it should be a good time,” the athletic right fielder says of the Braves in-house fantasy league, which usually consists of 12 to 14 players.
In addition to keeping players out of trouble -- if you owned a team, wouldn’t you rather have your players yelling at their TV for LaDainian Tomlinson to score a touchdown than with a fist full of cash outside a pit-bull ring? -- it helps build team camaraderie.
“It’s a blast, we come in talking trash all the time, even during the off-season,” Francoeur said. “It’s a great way to keep in touch with guys through e-mail.”
* A special thanks goes out to LatinoSports.com, for allowing Dan to do this interview while on assignment covering the Mets.
DENVER BRONCOS '07 PREVIEW
DENVER BRONCOS PRESEASON PREVIEW
By Harsh Lochan, NFL Draft Bible
The beginning of a season is the same for every franchise- a breath of fresh air, that eternal ray of hope and confidence in the season to come.
That very confidence and hope in Denver has been injected by young quarterback Jay Cutler. Fans can be heard whispering the name “Elway” to each other as Cutler steps into a downfield pass in the Mile High sky. Behind the apparent answers, however, lie critical questions.
The receivers he’s throwing to? “The walking wounded.” The running game? “Leave it to Shanny – He’ll find a way.” JC? “He’ll come into his own.” The biggest and most important question - how will Denver fare this season?
If there’s ever a season where timing is critical, this is the one. With a monstrous defense that led the team to a 5-1 start last year, giving up a total of 44 points, 7.3 per game and the lowest points allowed in the NFL at the time. Offensive woes were overcome by a “bend but not break” defense, where Champ Bailey was the quiet and unofficial defensive player of the year. With an offense that ranked 31st in the league at the time with 12.3 points per game, even the defense couldn’t prevent a 4-6 downhill finish.
This year, much of the same can be expected with a decimated receiving core with the exception of Javon Walker. The defensive addition of Dre Bly to the secondary will keep points off the board long enough for the offense to get going. With the rest of the crew coming off various injuries, expect Cutler and the offense to get off to a slow start.
Jay Cutler
A keeper league gem and a promising performer, its Cutler’s ship and the Broncos are on it. With Plummer out of the picture and assured backup, Patrick Ramsey taking them from the bench, there is no quarterback controversy or worry over job security. Look for the talented Cutler to move up the ranks of second-tier fantasy quarterbacks this season and expect him to surge as the season progresses. He’ll face his growing pains early and grow stronger along with the owners who draft him.
Travis Henry/Mike Bell
Tally up an automatic 1,000 yards, with the veteran Travis Henry exploiting the runway between the tackles. A word of caution for future Mike Bell owners – expect him to struggle fantasy-wise as his running style isn’t that different from Henry’s. Not being a change of pace back can hurt his stock. While his hard-nosed, grind-it-out style of play admirably makes him a fan favorite, Bell’s similar running will leave him with less carries as Henry will be more featured.
It goes without say to draft Bell if you have Henry. Handcuffing backups is a good way to protect your investment - especially if the backup is as talented as Mike Bell.
Javon Walker
A steal in a bust out year last season leaves Walker as the only healthy disclaimer to the injury report that is the Broncos’ wide outs. Walker is the only viable target and as he proved last year, will put up big numbers if defenses aren’t geared to shutting him down.
Brandon Marshall
Coming off a thigh injury, Marshall hasn’t been on the practice field and is a definite candidate for a rough start. However, keep an in-season eye on Marshall who could become a weapon inside the twenty and a difference maker for deeper league fantasy teams starving for a receiver.
Brandon Stokley
A late value pick at best, look for the oft-injured Stokley to be a fantasy disappointment. Avoid being a hopeful if you are expecting him to bust out given the circumstances. Coming off a ruptured right Achilles earlier than expected, and without the luxury of indoor turf that serves as Madden turbo, hit the pass button instead.
Rod Smith
Coach Shanahan has offered a liberal, if not hazy assessment of Smith’s timetable for return from hip injury and subsequent surgery. Being placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list doesn’t help matters. It comes to show you that injury and age will catch up even to the Hot Rod, as a spot for him should not be reserved unless you’re incredibly sentimental.
Daniel Graham/Tony Scheffler
Recovered from a broken foot and freshly activated, emerging Tony Scheffler was a bona fide sleeper until the acquisition of Daniel Graham. Considering Graham’s usage by New England as a Red Zone target, this leaves Scheffler in the role of a possession tight end. This translates to split numbers, as they would each cut into the others productivity. A good tandem, avoid too much fantasy expectation from either individually.
Email Harsh Lochan: harsh@nfldraftbible.com
By Harsh Lochan, NFL Draft Bible
The beginning of a season is the same for every franchise- a breath of fresh air, that eternal ray of hope and confidence in the season to come.
That very confidence and hope in Denver has been injected by young quarterback Jay Cutler. Fans can be heard whispering the name “Elway” to each other as Cutler steps into a downfield pass in the Mile High sky. Behind the apparent answers, however, lie critical questions.
The receivers he’s throwing to? “The walking wounded.” The running game? “Leave it to Shanny – He’ll find a way.” JC? “He’ll come into his own.” The biggest and most important question - how will Denver fare this season?
If there’s ever a season where timing is critical, this is the one. With a monstrous defense that led the team to a 5-1 start last year, giving up a total of 44 points, 7.3 per game and the lowest points allowed in the NFL at the time. Offensive woes were overcome by a “bend but not break” defense, where Champ Bailey was the quiet and unofficial defensive player of the year. With an offense that ranked 31st in the league at the time with 12.3 points per game, even the defense couldn’t prevent a 4-6 downhill finish.
This year, much of the same can be expected with a decimated receiving core with the exception of Javon Walker. The defensive addition of Dre Bly to the secondary will keep points off the board long enough for the offense to get going. With the rest of the crew coming off various injuries, expect Cutler and the offense to get off to a slow start.
Jay Cutler
A keeper league gem and a promising performer, its Cutler’s ship and the Broncos are on it. With Plummer out of the picture and assured backup, Patrick Ramsey taking them from the bench, there is no quarterback controversy or worry over job security. Look for the talented Cutler to move up the ranks of second-tier fantasy quarterbacks this season and expect him to surge as the season progresses. He’ll face his growing pains early and grow stronger along with the owners who draft him.
Travis Henry/Mike Bell
Tally up an automatic 1,000 yards, with the veteran Travis Henry exploiting the runway between the tackles. A word of caution for future Mike Bell owners – expect him to struggle fantasy-wise as his running style isn’t that different from Henry’s. Not being a change of pace back can hurt his stock. While his hard-nosed, grind-it-out style of play admirably makes him a fan favorite, Bell’s similar running will leave him with less carries as Henry will be more featured.
It goes without say to draft Bell if you have Henry. Handcuffing backups is a good way to protect your investment - especially if the backup is as talented as Mike Bell.
Javon Walker
A steal in a bust out year last season leaves Walker as the only healthy disclaimer to the injury report that is the Broncos’ wide outs. Walker is the only viable target and as he proved last year, will put up big numbers if defenses aren’t geared to shutting him down.
Brandon Marshall
Coming off a thigh injury, Marshall hasn’t been on the practice field and is a definite candidate for a rough start. However, keep an in-season eye on Marshall who could become a weapon inside the twenty and a difference maker for deeper league fantasy teams starving for a receiver.
Brandon Stokley
A late value pick at best, look for the oft-injured Stokley to be a fantasy disappointment. Avoid being a hopeful if you are expecting him to bust out given the circumstances. Coming off a ruptured right Achilles earlier than expected, and without the luxury of indoor turf that serves as Madden turbo, hit the pass button instead.
Rod Smith
Coach Shanahan has offered a liberal, if not hazy assessment of Smith’s timetable for return from hip injury and subsequent surgery. Being placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list doesn’t help matters. It comes to show you that injury and age will catch up even to the Hot Rod, as a spot for him should not be reserved unless you’re incredibly sentimental.
Daniel Graham/Tony Scheffler
Recovered from a broken foot and freshly activated, emerging Tony Scheffler was a bona fide sleeper until the acquisition of Daniel Graham. Considering Graham’s usage by New England as a Red Zone target, this leaves Scheffler in the role of a possession tight end. This translates to split numbers, as they would each cut into the others productivity. A good tandem, avoid too much fantasy expectation from either individually.
Email Harsh Lochan: harsh@nfldraftbible.com
FF IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO-BACK SYSTEM
By David Kaye, NFL Draft Bible
Last season the Indianapolis Colts orchestrated the two running back
system en route to a Super Bowl victory. The year before that, the
Pittsburgh Steelers incorporated the inside outside combination of
Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy.
Due to the success of the Colts and Steelers, more and more teams will
begin to employ the running back by committee system. It will be interesting to note if this is a trend that has staying power and
what, if any, fantasy implications this might have as the season
approaches.
AFC
Buffalo Bills
In Buffalo, Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year Marshawn Lynch will split time with seven-year veteran Anthony Thomas in the backfield. The players have contrasting running styles--Lynch provides extraordinary speed and balance while Thomas is a power back. “I would still like if we had the option, to run the ball by committee,”said head coach Dick Jauron.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to form a
two-headed monster in Jacksonville last season amassing 2,087 yards and 18 touchdowns between them. Jones-Drew proved to fantasy owners that he's a versatile back who can also catch passes and serve as a kick return specialist. He compiled 436 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and saw his kick return average escalate to 27.7, third best in the NFL. I expect the fantasy production of Jones-Drew to continue to increase in all facets of the game, as he will provide a little mojo to the Jaguars backfield.
Oakland Raiders
As the Raiders enter the 2007 season boasting the lowest scoring
offense in the league, backfield mates LaMont Jordan and Dominic
Rhodes will be counted on heavily throughout the season. Rhodes, signed in the off-season coming over from those Super Bowl Champion Colts, has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Even though his value is quickly diminishing, he would be a steal between rounds 10-15, as he will return week six against Miami. Without Rhodes, Jordan will see considerable playing time and he has the ability to be a productive starter. He'll probably go unnoticed in fantasy drafts, but he is on my radar as a sleeper pick.
NFC
Dallas Cowboys
Marion Barber III transformed into a touchdown machine last season as he found the end zone fourteen times on the ground and twice in the air. Barber was featured more as a third down and goal line back last season due to his strength and ability to move the chains. As a young player on the rise, he should be a hot commodity in fantasy drafts. Meanwhile, starter Julius Jones saw his production on the ground increase for the third consecutive season, but he found the end zone less often. Being that this is a contract year for him, there'll be added pressure to perform and I expect him to have a breakout season.
Detroit Lions
Reports out of Detroit indicate that running back Kevin Jones is steadily progressing from a left foot injury that ended his season last year. Although he's regaining strength and his ability to cut, he's still on the physically unable to perform list and is not close to 100%. With Jones's injury, Tatum Bell is receiving the majority of reps in camp and offensive guru Mike Martz is planning to use the former Bronco in a featured role. His value in drafts is quickly rising and if Jones can recover fully, he can translate into a solid sleeper pick.
Minnesota Vikings
Last season in Minnesota, Chester Taylor was the dominant back as he eclipsed the 1,200 yard mark and distinguished himself as the focal point in the Vikings offense. With the arrival of first-round pick Adrian Peterson, Taylor's role will be diminished as a running back by committee system will be implemented. Even though Peterson is the hot pick in drafts, Taylor could prove to have an excellent season.
New York Giants
With the retirement of Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs will be thrust into the spotlight in the Giants offense. Jacobs displayed his explosiveness last season as he ran over opposing defenders and barreled his way into the end zone nine times. Reuben Droughns, acquired in the off-season from Cleveland, experienced a disappointing 2006 campaign, but will be relied upon heavily in the run game. I expect offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride to employ a running back by committee system in order to utilize the abilities of both players.
Washington Redskins
Running back Clinton Portis is returning from two shoulder injuries, a
sprained ankle and a broken bone in his right hand that placed him on
injured reserve last season. In his absence, backup Ladell Betts went
on to have the best season of his career, rushing for 1,154 yards and
four touchdowns. In the final six games of 2006, Betts accumulated five
100-yard games and eclipsed the 150-yard mark twice. Despite his
consistency, Portis is the starter in Washington and is being drafted
between the second and fourth rounds. I would use caution when considering Portis, who's extremely injury prone and focus my attention on grabbing Betts later on.
Email David Kaye at: david@nfldraftbible.com
Last season the Indianapolis Colts orchestrated the two running back
system en route to a Super Bowl victory. The year before that, the
Pittsburgh Steelers incorporated the inside outside combination of
Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy.
Due to the success of the Colts and Steelers, more and more teams will
begin to employ the running back by committee system. It will be interesting to note if this is a trend that has staying power and
what, if any, fantasy implications this might have as the season
approaches.
AFC
Buffalo Bills
In Buffalo, Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year Marshawn Lynch will split time with seven-year veteran Anthony Thomas in the backfield. The players have contrasting running styles--Lynch provides extraordinary speed and balance while Thomas is a power back. “I would still like if we had the option, to run the ball by committee,”said head coach Dick Jauron.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to form a
two-headed monster in Jacksonville last season amassing 2,087 yards and 18 touchdowns between them. Jones-Drew proved to fantasy owners that he's a versatile back who can also catch passes and serve as a kick return specialist. He compiled 436 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and saw his kick return average escalate to 27.7, third best in the NFL. I expect the fantasy production of Jones-Drew to continue to increase in all facets of the game, as he will provide a little mojo to the Jaguars backfield.
Oakland Raiders
As the Raiders enter the 2007 season boasting the lowest scoring
offense in the league, backfield mates LaMont Jordan and Dominic
Rhodes will be counted on heavily throughout the season. Rhodes, signed in the off-season coming over from those Super Bowl Champion Colts, has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Even though his value is quickly diminishing, he would be a steal between rounds 10-15, as he will return week six against Miami. Without Rhodes, Jordan will see considerable playing time and he has the ability to be a productive starter. He'll probably go unnoticed in fantasy drafts, but he is on my radar as a sleeper pick.
NFC
Dallas Cowboys
Marion Barber III transformed into a touchdown machine last season as he found the end zone fourteen times on the ground and twice in the air. Barber was featured more as a third down and goal line back last season due to his strength and ability to move the chains. As a young player on the rise, he should be a hot commodity in fantasy drafts. Meanwhile, starter Julius Jones saw his production on the ground increase for the third consecutive season, but he found the end zone less often. Being that this is a contract year for him, there'll be added pressure to perform and I expect him to have a breakout season.
Detroit Lions
Reports out of Detroit indicate that running back Kevin Jones is steadily progressing from a left foot injury that ended his season last year. Although he's regaining strength and his ability to cut, he's still on the physically unable to perform list and is not close to 100%. With Jones's injury, Tatum Bell is receiving the majority of reps in camp and offensive guru Mike Martz is planning to use the former Bronco in a featured role. His value in drafts is quickly rising and if Jones can recover fully, he can translate into a solid sleeper pick.
Minnesota Vikings
Last season in Minnesota, Chester Taylor was the dominant back as he eclipsed the 1,200 yard mark and distinguished himself as the focal point in the Vikings offense. With the arrival of first-round pick Adrian Peterson, Taylor's role will be diminished as a running back by committee system will be implemented. Even though Peterson is the hot pick in drafts, Taylor could prove to have an excellent season.
New York Giants
With the retirement of Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs will be thrust into the spotlight in the Giants offense. Jacobs displayed his explosiveness last season as he ran over opposing defenders and barreled his way into the end zone nine times. Reuben Droughns, acquired in the off-season from Cleveland, experienced a disappointing 2006 campaign, but will be relied upon heavily in the run game. I expect offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride to employ a running back by committee system in order to utilize the abilities of both players.
Washington Redskins
Running back Clinton Portis is returning from two shoulder injuries, a
sprained ankle and a broken bone in his right hand that placed him on
injured reserve last season. In his absence, backup Ladell Betts went
on to have the best season of his career, rushing for 1,154 yards and
four touchdowns. In the final six games of 2006, Betts accumulated five
100-yard games and eclipsed the 150-yard mark twice. Despite his
consistency, Portis is the starter in Washington and is being drafted
between the second and fourth rounds. I would use caution when considering Portis, who's extremely injury prone and focus my attention on grabbing Betts later on.
Email David Kaye at: david@nfldraftbible.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)