Tuesday, August 14, 2007

THE PHIL ELETTO TOP 100

These rankings are for basic scoring formats. Tight end’s have been ranked as wide receivers, so figure a 5% bump in value if your league mandates a tight end.

1 LaDanian Tomlinson: Don’t expect last year, but if you have any doubt, I want to be in your league
2 Steven Jackson: Pure monster, the coaching staff knows it and the system exploits it
3 Shaun Alexander: Let them worry about last year and his 30 years of age, we were talking about him last year like we talk about Tomlinson this year
4 Larry Johnson: For my money, this is a much better soap-opera than the Vick case--at least it’s all football related
5 Travis Henry: Too many things have to go wrong for him to not earn this. They say Moss needed a change of scenery?
6 Frank Gore: Opposite of Alexander--how quickly we forget his injury plagued past. I just want less risk in this slot. The later he lasts, the better I like him.
7 Reggie Bush: Too many weapons to be higher, but too much talent to go lower. Yardage/points per game makes him 5 overall
8 Willis McGahee: I am absolutely drooling over his upside this year
9 Joseph Addai: Flip-flop with Henry if Tarik Glenn plays, which does not seem likely
10 Peyton Manning: Money in the bank, but I have a hard time taking him before the RB's in front of him (and a few behind, if on the clock)
11 Laurence Maroney: A younger, stronger Westbrook. How much of the good Westbrook vs the bad is the question
12 Steve Smith: Will get you points in every game he is in, which is any time he can walk
13 Brian Westbrook: Injury waiting to happen, but an all-category monster when on the field. Points per catch or yardage leagues bump him up 5 spots
14 Rudy Johnson: Quietly does his thing year after year to little or no fanfare
15 Willie Parker: Love him in yardage leagues. Barlow and Davenport may snag a few more short touchdowns than Parker owners can handle
16 Clinton Portis: Expect a repeat of last year, except for his alter-ego's
17 Chad Johnson: This is the year he puts it all together
18 Carson Palmer: Rather have him here than pay the price for Peyton
19 Edgerrin James: Last year’s expectations come to fruition this year
20 Tory Holt: All is happy as can be in Ram-land. He should mirror last year’s numbers
21 Terrell Owens: Do you feel lucky? Better upside than any receiver but Smith and Ocho Cinco but with more risk, so I wuss out on this one
22 Marvin Harrison: I need to see the slowdown year before worrying about making him my #1 WR.He is like that security blanket from childhood.
23 Reggie Wayne: More upside than Harrison, but I won’t bet against Marvin
24 Cedric Benson: All alone, but is that a good thing, and is the entire Bears offense jekyll or hyde? Last of the clear cut starters, so take note of the rise in volatility and question marks from here on out, but he could be this year’s Frank Gore
25 Larry Fitzgerald: Sick talent + being surrounded by very good talent at the skill positions = no brainer
26 Roy Williams: The decision between him and Fitzgerald is like the decision between a brunette with a perfect body vs. a blonde with…
27 Brandon Jacobs: LaMont Jordan with more upside
28 Drew Brees: Having Bush puts him ahead of Brady (get your mind out of the gutter!)
29 Marques Colston: I so badly want to put him higher, but can’t tell you to do so, to the chagrin of our own Dr. Bill Chackes
30 Javon Walker: This offense will break records (figuratively) or hearts. Although the former is an exaggeration, that is my bet
31 Carnell Williams: He is another guy that has the talent and could surprise if your looking for upside. With all the noise about the quarterback situation, he may slip
32 Maurice Jones-Drew: This guy can get it done, likely earning more than this slot
33 Ronnie Brown: Trent Green staying healthy improves Brown's standing considerably
34 Andre Johnson: Expect a repeat of last year. Ever use him in Madden? He is a monster!
35 Duece McAllister: The quietest 10 Touchdowns, 1,000 yards of '06
36 Tom Brady: It’s not hard to imagine a 5-10% increase last year’s numbers, but you will have to pay for it. I pass
37 Thomas Jones: Still don’t understand why he came so cheap. Helps you more in yardage leagues than touchdown leagues
38 Jamal Lewis: Few go to Cleveland looking for the Fountain of Youth, but he has a year or two left
39 Ahman Green: New team, new system, can put up numbers when healthy
40 Anquan Boldin: He never hurts you unless he is hurt himself
41 DeAngelo Williams: Has all the ability in the world, and it sure is fun to watch him exploit the room Smith opens up
42 Lamont Jordan: zzzzz. Do we hear sleeper? There is no "sleeper" per se anymore so look at him as unexpected/cheap sources of points.
43 Chester Taylor: Loved him until Adrian Peterson got drafted
44 Antonio Gates: As much fun as you can have owning a tight end
45 Randy Moss: I am pumped if I can get him here
46 Marshawn Lynch: $75 million invested in the offensive line, and not a ton of attention on him because of the expectation of "running back by committee." C'mon, are you scared of 100 year old Anthony Thomas?
47 Fred Taylor: Where once you couldn’t keep him ON the field, now we can’t get him off of it
48 Marion Barber: Was a Bill Parcells favorite, if he couldn't wrestle job from Jones then he won’t start now. It will take Wade Phillips half the season to figure out what Parcells ultimately did--Julius Jones cannot handle a starting gig
49 Marc Bulger: Bruises as easily as a peach, but can be as lethal as QBs 10-15 spots higher
50 Hines Ward: Been up and down last few years, but with a stabilized offense expect the "up"
51 Adrian Peterson: Are we all getting too excited given the $$ they paid Taylor and Peterson’s injury history? I smell a two-headed running back
52 Calvin Johnson: Rookies back to back. Selecting a rookie WR this early is unprecedented but warranted. Swing for the fences, look at the guys below, maybe one of the guys below slips to your next pick--you are set.
53 Donovan McNabb: 75% as of 8/1, that’s not a ringing endorsement, but it’s too early to go jumping off any bridges.
54 Kevin Jones: He's the type of guy that will bust out when everyone least expects it. You can get him here, zero downside other than that chronic foot, and Tatum Bell getting a fire under his…
55 TJ Houshmandzadeh: Best name since Tshimanga Biakabutuka and he’s a great receiver who will only benefit from Chris Henry's stupidity
56 Donald Driver: I want any WR that is Brett Favre's favorite target
57 Lee Evans: Would not be surprised if he finishes the season up to 20 spots higher, but I am not a J.P. Losman fan at all
58 Santana Moss: Not feeling the Redskins offense, but someone will put up #3 WR numbers and he has the best chance at them
59 Jon Kitna: Liked him last year, LOVE him this year
60 Plaxico Burress: So tired of this story--million dollar skills, ten cent head. As a number two, he could disappoint, as a #3 you will be thrilled.
61 Deion Branch: Got the number one gig and this offense should be a pleasant surprise
62 Brandon Jackson: Morency starting will only last a 1/4 of the season, and their O line is no prize
63 Laveranues Coles: Going to get a million balls thrown his way
64 Chris Chambers: Whenever his quarterback can get him the ball, he has exploded
65 Braylon Edwards: see Chris Chambers, only the quarterback situation is not nearly as optimistic
66 Vincent Jackson: Red zone monster
67 Reggie Brown: Ton of talent, it is a shame his value is tied to Donovan McNabb's health
68 Jay Cutler: Like Travis Henry, too many things need to go wrong for him to fail. No sure thing but they will not be looking insert Patrick Ramsey unless its an emergency
69 Joey Galloway: He keeps on going, but I don’t want to be left holding the pieces when his production dries up
70 Mark Clayton: Has to love the arrival of Willis McGahee, which will give him a fighting chance to run free
71 Tatum Bell: Martz loves him, but the evil genius is no friend to running backs
*At this point there is a considerable drop off in talent other than quarterbacks, Defenses/Individual defensive players/Kickers. If you don’t have a quarterback or have to play a TE, you have waited long enough. If you have any means of moving 2 picks for 1 to move up, do so.
72 Jerious Norwood: He will get his chance to start out of the gate, but any Falcon will have to come cheap for me
73 Todd Heap: Owners never complain or rejoice, but he is a tight end, what do you expect?
74 Ladell Betts: Clinton Portis always gives the backup a game or two of value
75 Matt Hasselbeck: Why is he falling so far?
76 Tony Gonzalez: Chiefs wide receivers scare nobody, so the passing game is his to rule
77 Darrell Jackson: Hardly the missing piece, but brings valuable experience and talent, just has to stay out of the trainer’s room
78 Matt Leinart: Let’s not go nuts, but this season he should be a pleasure to own
79 Vince Young: Betting on a sophomore slump
80 Muhsin Muhammad: He is getting the majority of the balls regardless, but a successful QB means high scoring offense. If not you have too many low scoring games
81 LenDale White: His value is the opposite of his scale readings, meaning weight up, fortunes down
82 Phillip Rivers: Poor man’s Drew Brees with more mobility
83 Kevin Curtis: Perfect fit with plenty of upside as Brown has had trouble staying healthy
84 DeShaun Foster: Starting and talented but "fragile" must be Italian
85 Devery Henderson: Departure of Joe Horn allows his skills to shine and be the forgotten man alongside Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and company
86 Donte Stallworth: A polished version of Devery Henderson, but the WR glut hurts more than Tom Brady helps. Always seems to be nicked up
87 Chris Brown: Another "good if on the field but…" and may lose job if LenDale White learns to lay off the White Castle
88 Jerricho Cotchery: Flew under the radar everywhere but New York, can he do it again?
89 Vernand Morency: Will get the numbers at the end of the season, but if you owned him you will wonder when those points came
90 D.J. Hackett: Another great value pick. Years ago they would label him a sleeper
91 Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Tight end rule. Always had the talent, I think he will start to show it this year
92 Greg Jennings: Great chemistry with Favre and little depth after him
93 Santonio Holmes: He has had time to marinate in the offense and Pittsburgh passing game will surprise
94 Bernard Berrian: Speed to burn but how many points will the Bears score? If you haven't guessed it, I’m down on the Bears offense across the board
95 Troy Williamson: At this point would you prefer to have some retread veteran or a guy with an extra helping of upside. I will take the upside hold the onions (and hopefully the dropsies)
96 Ben Roethlisberger: Got a really solid feeling on him this year, he should be cheap as well
97 Chris Cooley: Love his versatility and his prominence in the offense, but how good will it be?
98 Terry Glenn: HE doesn’t have all that much upside per se, but unpredictability of Owens OR coverage he draws--either way Owens helps him.
99 Brett Favre: Captain obvious comment of the board--If upright he will be slinging. Running game is no given and neither is the defense.
100 Leon Washington: A much younger version of Warrick Dunn which means lots of yards, some BIG plays, limited touchdowns