Thursday, October 18, 2007

WEEK SEVEN FANTASY PREVIEW

San Francisco @ New York Giants
Eli Manning is looking a lot better, and the Giants are running really well using all three of their backs. I like Reuben Droughns and Brandon Jacobs, who both got carries last week. I’m tempted to play Amani Toomer, who had a great game last week, but San Fran stops opposing WR pretty well. I don’t like many 49ers this week, regardless of whether Alex Smith plays or not.

Atlanta @ New Orleans
New Orleans finally woke up, and I like them again this week. David Patten was the beneficiary last week, but where has he been? He hasn’t done anything in years. Play Lance Moore, who is younger and also returns kicks. Short of Jerious Norwood breaking a long run like last week, which he hadn’t done before this season, I don’t like any Falcons even against the weak Saints’ D. Byron Leftwich takes about 20 minutes to drop back and throw, and behind that line he’ll have problems. Falcons wide-outs are also targeted fairly evenly, and it remains to be seen who Leftwich will look for.

New England @ Miami
With Sammy Morris out, it looks like Kevin Faulk will probably be the guy this week, but the Patriots are crafty and could surprise everyone by using Heath Evans. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if they go up very early and both runners make noise. I’d lean toward Faulk over Evans, but it’s hard to call. Without Chris Chambers, who was traded to San Diego, the Dolphins are even more pathetic on offense. Ronnie Browns will probably catch a lot of passes, but it’s hard to run on the Pats.

Arizona @ Washington
Kurt, I know you tend to hurt yourself, but couldn’t you have maybe lasted more than 2 drop backs? You made your coach put in Tim Rattay. Yuck. Warner may be back this week, but regardless, Washington is nasty to passing games, and I’d play my Cardinals with care. Santana Moss supposedly benched himself last week, but if he plays this week he has a great matchup. Randle-El is also a play if he suits up.

Baltimore @ Buffalo
Baltimore has been iffy against the pass, allowing a few teams to go off. But I just don’t see Trent Edwards, who has been mostly dinking (sometimes dunking), down the field. Buffalo’s O gets dominated here. Kyle Boller is starting, and could see some success against the Bills.

Tampa Bay @ Detroit
OK, so my hunch about Earnest Graham didn’t quite pan out last week. But, I’m sticking with my guy here. He’s a strong runner, they pound it at the goal line, and Detroit is Swiss cheese. Michael Bennett probably won’t factor in much this soon after being acquired, so Graham is still the man here for now. Ike Hilliard is also a strong play. Tatum Bell wanted to get traded, but wasn’t. Welcome back to potential fantasy relevance, Kevin Jones. He’s decent this week.

Tennessee @ Houston
If Vince Young’s injury forces Kerry Collins into the lineup, get ready for some ineptitude. He looked awful last year for the Titans. LenDale White will play well, especially if Chris Brown is out. Houston’s Kevin Walter continues to play well, but the Titans are tough. I’m also sitting the Texans run game against Tennessee.

Kansas City @ Oakland
Jeff Webb surprised and was targeted as many times as Dwayne Bowe last week, but I’d wait to see this again before I buy. Bowe has tough corner Nnamdi Asomugha, but I’d play him anyway. Ronald Curry still got the most targets last week, but I’d keep watching Jerry Porter. Neither is great this week, though.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati
Alright, loyal NFL Draft Bible readers, I need to get something off my chest. I am a New York Jets fan. This is a rough year for Gang Green, and for their quarterback, Chad Pennington, whom I have loved for years.. He has always had a noodle-arm, but his arm is the least of his problems right now. He used to make up for it with sound decision-making, accurate passing, and good leadership. Right now, those positive qualities are absent, and the Jets are left with just the weak arm: ask Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. Sure, Jones had 120 yards last week, but much of that came on the Jets’ first drive of the game before the Eagles remembered Pennington can’t throw more than 12 yards down field. Now, having said all of this, Coach Mangini is sticking with Chad this week, and the Bengals certainly won’t provide too much resistance: they allow almost 250 yards in the air and almost 150 on the ground. Start all of your Jets this week, but get ready for some potential changes in the coming weeks.

Oh, I almost forgot. Start all your Bengals: the Jets’ D may have more holes than the O.

Minnesota @ Dallas
Adrian! I had been thinking that Peterson would be a sell because of Chester Taylor coming back, the fact that he was relying on some big plays to get his yards, and that the Vikings were going to see some tougher opponents coming up. Never mind all of that. Peterson is the most talented player on his team, and as much as I want to caution his owners from counting too heavily on a guy who needs to bust big runs for points, I can’t. He’s too good. He keeps breaking out for monster gains. Forget Chester. Forget the Bears’ defense. Forget the Cowboys’ defense. He’s a great player, and will score for you against most teams. For Dallas, it’s the usual story against Minny. Sit the running backs, start everyone involved in the passing game (2nd best run D, worst pass D).

Chicago @ Philadelphia
After being torched by Adrian Peterson last week, the Bears get to face Brian Westbrook, another excellent open field runner. I could see this game being all about Westbrook running and catching screens all day, and I still can’t rely on any Eagle WRs. I’m still banking on Reggie Brown eventually emerging here, but this isn’t a great matchup. Cedric Benson runs like an old man, and looks generally lame. Sit him and get the other Adrian Peterson, who I bet will be fantasy relevant before the end of the year.

St. Louis @ Seattle

Shaun. Please. You were the MVP 2 years ago. You look hesitant, slow, and bored. But if you can’t have yourself a game this week, then I don’t know what to tell you. The Rams can’t do anything on either side of the ball, so Shaun should have the chance to run in the second half this week. By the way, keep an eye on Leonard Weaver, who broke a big one, and could get a bigger role as the season progresses. D.J. Hackett looks like he’ll play this week, and he couldn’t have a better matchup. Bobby Engram, and even Nate Burleson are solid starts also. Marc Bulger is back this week, so Torry Holt should see a better game. Seattle’s defense is fairly middle-of-the-road, so use your Rams as you would any other week.

Pittsburgh @ Denver
Denver’s rush defense has fallen quite a bit this season, allowing 187 yards per game. This makes Najeh Davenport startable this week. Pittsburgh is also getting Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward back this week, but Denver is great vs. the pass. Denver’s RB situation is a bit up in the air, but it’s not a good week against Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

You can’t ever sit your Colts, but the Jags have given them problems in the past. Maurice Jones-Drew is back, and is a start for sure. As for Jaguar receivers, it’s anyone’s guess from week to week who will emerge as they are pretty egalitarian. I don’t particularly like any of them.