Week 16 Fantasy FFI Head to Head Preview

For the last season, Fantasy Football Insiders spent a little extra time to ensure you have every possible perspective. On this weeks games we place each others analysis one above another (in no order whatsoever). If they agree, you get not one but two Insiders analysis, but where do you put your money if they disagree? We give you information, you make the educated call…

Saturday 8:15 PM
Dallas at Carolina

Brad Kurtzberg
Can the Cowboys bounce back after last week’s poor offensive performance against the Eagles? They need a win to secure home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. How badly is Tony Romo’s thumb injured? Would it be wise to rest Romo for a week or two before the playoffs? The Panthers upset the Seahawks last week to earn a little bit of respect after a tough season. They started their fourth different QB and each of them has at least one win. QB Matt Moore was cut by Dallas after the preseason and would love to show his former team he is an NFL caliber QB.

Stud: Marion Barber, RB Dallas. Barber was Mr. Everything against Detroit but was ignored for the most part in the loss to the Eagles. With Romo’s thumb hurting, look for the Cowboys to emphasize the running game even more than usual and that means Barber will shine against the Panthers’ 19th ranked run defense.
Dud: Matt Moore, QB Carolina. Moore was 19-of-27 for 207 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs in his first NFL start. He will be lucky to duplicate those numbers against Dallas’ tough defense. Look for the rookie to face all kinds of pressure and make some critical mistakes. If the Panthers are going to win, they have to run the ball more than throw it.
Sleeper: Jason Witten, TE Dallas. Witten has more than 1,000 yards receiving, a rarity for an NFL TE and he has scored 7 TDs on the season. He also has back-to-back 100-plus yard games coming into Saturday night’s contest. Safety Chris Harris is tough and physical but will have trouble keeping up with Witten over the course of the game.

Dan Lewis
Dallas @ Carolina
Carolina’s defense is actually better than you might expect given their lame season, but not good enough to merit benching any of your Cowboys (except for Julius Jones, who I don’t consider a start anymore at all). Steve Smith hasn’t been catching touchdowns, but has still been active, and is a start this week. Last week also saw DeAngelo Williams edge out DeShaun Foster in carries. It seems like the coaching staff is starting to favor Williams, but neither is a good play this week against Dallas.


Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay at Chicago

Dan
Ryan Grant is a definite start against the Bears’ overrated defense (can you even say they’re overrated anymore?). Donald Driver is a start as usual. Greg Jennings, who can’t stop catching touchdowns and has caught at least one in all but 2 of the games he’s played, is also obviously a start. Sit all your Bears. Yes, even Kyle Orton. I have a feeling he’s not a good player…

Ryan Grant is a definite start against the Bears’ overrated defense (can you even say they’re overrated anymore?). Donald Driver is a start as usual. Greg Jennings, who can’t stop catching touchdowns and has caught at least one in all but 2 of the games he’s played, is also obviously a start. Sit all your Bears. Yes, even Kyle Orton. I have a feeling he’s not a good player…

Brad
The Packers beat the Rams handily last week in yet another record-breaking game for Brett Favre. The Bears fell to the Vikings on Monday night after holding an early first half lead. Kyle Orton is the latest starting QB for the Bears to show that he is not the long term answer. Orton just doesn’t have the arm to be more than a steady backup. The Bears won the first meeting between these two teams and the Pack will be looking for revenge. Green Bay can still secure home field advantage for the NFC playoffs if the Cowboys loose one of their remaining games and the Pack wins both of theirs.

Stud: Ryan Grant, RB Green Bay. Even though Grant only had 60 total yards last week against St. Louis, he scored a TD for the fourth straight week to keep fantasy owners happy. The Pack will be playing in windy and cold Chicago rather than a dome so look for the running game to get more emphasis. Chicago can’t stop the run (ranked 25th in the league) so Grant should do well.
Dud: Adrian Peterson, RB Chicago. Peterson just doesn’t have it as a runner. He gained only 26 yards against the Vikings although he did catch 51 yards worth of passes. Peterson didn’t find the end zone either. The Bears’ offensive line is not a great run blocking unit. The Green Bay run defense is good enough to bottle up Peterson.
Sleeper: Brett Favre, QB Green Bay. Favre will be facing a Bears’ defense that ranks 26th against the pass. He may throw a pick or two, but Favre will put up good numbers after watching his receivers make big gains after the catch all game long. Donald Driver is already over 1,000 yards for the season and Greg Jennings needs 122 total yards in two games to join him. Jennings has 12 TD catches and has scored in six straight games.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Dan
Remember what happened last time these teams met? Carson Palmer threw 6 TDs, 2 each to Chad and Houshmandzadeh, and Rudi Johnson ran for 118. Derek Anderson, in his first start of the season, by the way, threw 5 TDs, 2 each to Braylon and Joe Jurevicius, and 1 to Kellen Winslow, and Jamal Lewis ran for 216 and a TD. Rudi Johnson is dinged up so keep an eye on his status as the week progresses, but whoever starts at RB for the Bengals this week has a great matchup. Not much has changed with these teams since Week 2, so start all your normal Bengals and Browns. Even Chris Henry (watch his injury status as well) and Joe Jurevicius are decent plays here if you need an extra WR.

Brad
The Battle of Ohio means a lot to one of these teams and before the season started, most people would have guessed it would have been the Bengals. Cincy fell to 5-9 after an embarrassing loss to the 49ers last week. Cleveland improved to 9-5 and is in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card and may even win the AFC North if the Steelers stumble again. The weather is expected to be wet which would be the second straight bad weather game for the Browns.

Stud: Jamal Lewis, RB Cleveland. Lewis has gone over 100 yards in three of the Browns’ last four games. In the snow a week ago, he ran for 163 yards. If the weather is wet and nasty again on Sunday, Lewis will continue to be the mainstay of the Cleveland attack. Cincinnati’s run defense (24th in the league) has struggled all year.
Dud: Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati. Watson has lost playing time to Rudi Johnson since RJ’s return to health. Look for Watson to play second fiddle again on Sunday.
Sleeper: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Cincinnati. The Bengals star wideout has 101 catches and 11 TDs already this year. If the Browns put CB Eric Wright on Chad Johnson, Houshmandzadeh will get a more favorable matchup against CB Leigh Bodden. It’s time for T.J. to find the end zone again.

Kansas City at Detroit

Brad
The good news is that one of these teams is going to have a lengthy and embarrassing losing streak come to an end. The Lions have lost six straight after getting off to a 6-2 start and have now been eliminated from playoff competition. The Chiefs have done them one better by losing seven in a row after getting off to a 4-3 early season record. The Lions were embarrassed by the Chargers last week while the Chiefs fell to the Titans. Both of these teams play against each other’s strengths. The Lions defense can’t stop the pass but the Chiefs aren’t a good passing team. The Chiefs can’t stop the run and the Lions are next-to-last at rushing the football. Something has got to give.

Stud: Kolby Smith, RB Kansas City. Smith was stopped cold last week after two strong games in a row. The Lions are bad at stopping the run but horrible against the pass. That means that Smith should have some room to maneuver against the Lions’ defense. Kansas City coach Herm Edwards likes conservative game plans and this week will be no different.
Dud: Jeff Webb, WR Kansas City. Webb has eight catches total in the last seven games and has become a non-factor for the Chiefs. In those seven games, he has never topped the 33 yard mark and has no TDs.
Sleeper: Kevin Jones, RB Detroit. Jones has the talent to run effectively, especially against the Chiefs 26th ranked run defense. The problem is that the Lions coaching staff tends to abandon the run too easily. They would be foolish to do that this week, wouldn’t they?

Dan
Detroit has completely collapsed. Who else is stunned beyond belief? I know I am!
…
Seriously, the Lions stink, but they still had some relevant fantasy WR performances reminiscent of last season when garbage time alone made Mike Furrey playable. KC’s defense is decent against the pass, though, and when you add that to the whimsy of Mike Martz you get a cloudy picture. Start them at your own risk. KC has had less success against the run, but the Lions also are inconsistent in their decision to commit to Kevin Jones. He is also a risk-reward play. Kolby Smith has a great matchup and is nearly a must-start.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

Dan
New Orleans is great news for Eagle WRs, so monitor Reggie Brown’s injury status this week. If he plays, he has a great matchup. If not, Kevin Curtis should see even more passes thrown his way. I wouldn’t trust the other Eagle WRs, though: McNabb targets different ones from week to week, so you can’t count on any particular one for your playoff game. For the Saints, David Patten has seen the second most looks behind Colston lately, and has a TD in his last 2 games. Philly isn’t great against WRs, so Patten is worth a start if you need someone. Aaron Stecker has been great, so start him again even if Reggie Bush is active.

Brad
The Eagles are coming off the biggest win of their season when they upset the conference leading Cowboys. Although it will be too little too late as far as the playoffs go, the Eagles are looking to gain respect as they build towards next season. The Saints are 7-7 and edged the Cardinals last week to keep their playoff hopes alive. A loss would end the Saints chances of catching the Vikings for the last Wild Card spot.

Stud: Brian Westbrook, RB Philadelphia. Westbrook gained 144 total yards against Dallas last week. The New Orleans defense has trouble stopping the pass and Westbrook should rack up a lot of receiving yards even if his rushing output is only average. Westbrook is a fantasy stud.
Dud: Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans. Bush is expected to be available against the Eagles but stay away. He has an injured knee and the Saints have a good rushing defense. Bush just hasn’t been a big factor on the field or as a fantasy player this season.
Sleeper: Marques Colston, WR New Orleans. Colston has been hot lately, catching 17 passes for more than 200 yards and 3 TDs in the past two games. He has been Drew Brees’ favorite receiver in the recent Saints revival. Colston has a big size advantage over the Eagles CBs and should have another big game.

Houston at Indianapolis

Brad
The Colts have nailed down the second slot in the AFC playoffs and a first round bye. The Texans are out of the playoff hunt but can still secure the first winning season in franchise history by earning victories in their last two games. Tony Dungy would be foolish to ruin the team’s momentum now by resting his top players unless the game gets out of hand. Indianapolis is riding a five-game winning streak and in the past, attempts to rest the team and have them slow down have backfired.

Stud: Andre Johnson, WR Houston. Johnson is one of the best fantasy players in the league. Last week he grabbed six passes for 86 yards and a TD, giving him seven TDs in seven games this year. Regardless of whom the QB is and who is covering Johnson, he always has productive games from a fantasy viewpoint.
Dud: Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston. Rosenfels will struggle a bit against the league’s top rated pass defense. Look for him to have decent but not good stats before the game is over as the Colts slow down the Texans’ offense.
Sleeper: Peyton Manning, QB Indianapolis. Manning is “downgraded” to sleeper just because the game means nothing to the Colts. It would be foolish for the Indy coaching staff to remove Manning unless one team has huge lead so look for him to play at least three quarters Sunday.

Dan
Ron Dayne is dinged up, but neither he nor Darius Walker has a good matchup against the Colts. Look elsewhere. Since coming back from injury Andre Johnson has been a weekly monster, but Kevin Walter has stayed involved. He’s an option this week, but not a great one. Tony Dungy has said he may play his starters more going into the playoffs this year than he has in the past, but Joseph Addai and Reggie Wayne may see less playing time this week and next. Kenton Keith will likely get more carries going forward, especially in Week 17. Anthony Gonzalez is a start this week, especially with Wayne possibly playing less.


New York Giants at Buffalo

Brad
The Giants failed to clinch a playoff spot last Sunday night in the wind swept Meadowlands while the Bills were eliminated by losing in blizzard-like conditions in Cleveland. The Giants are without TE Jeremy Shockey for the rest of the season. The Bills would love to finish with a winning record even though the playoffs are now out of reach. They are an improving team heading in the right direction.

Stud: Plaxico Burress, WR N.Y. Giants. Burress is 6’5” and has a huge height advantage over the Bills’ two starting CBs, Jabari Greer (5’11”) and Terrence McGee (5’9”). The Bills’ pass defense ranks 28th in the league and they have had problems putting pressure on opposing QBs all year. This should be a banner day for Burress.
Dud: Trent Edwards, QB Buffalo. Edwards has thrown 5 TD passes all season and four of them came in one game against the dreadful Dolphins. He’s only topped the 200-yard mark in a game twice this season. While Edwards has a lot of potential as an NFL QB, he is not a good fantasy option this week.
Sleeper: Brandon Jacobs, RB N.Y. Giants. Jacobs gained 130 yards last week against the Redskins and should get plenty of carries as the weather doesn’t expect to be wonderful up in Buffalo either. The Bills run defense is 22nd in the league. Jacobs will also pick up some receiving yards but the Giants usually turn elsewhere in short yardage.

Dan
Marshawn Lynch got more carries than Fred Jackson last week, and should again this week, so start him. Start Lee Evans also. Brandon Jacobs is coming off 120 yards against Washington, and has an excellent matchup against Buffalo, so make sure he’s in your lineup. Plaxico Burress is a definite start, but the interesting Giant WR is Sinorice Moss, who saw an expanded role in the offense after Jeremy Shockey went down with a broken leg. He’s a risky play for the playoffs, though, so I’d stay away.

Oakland @ Jacksonville

Dan
Justin Fargas is out for the year, so it looks like LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes will split carries for the rest of the season. None are starts this week against Jacksonville, though, but watch to see who gets the bulk of carries because their matchup against San Diego in Week 17 is a favorable one. Ronald Curry is really the only borderline-worth a start Raider, but even he will have difficulty against the Jags. The Raiders’ defense is 31st against the run and 7th against the pass, so the Jags would be crazy not to pound them with Fred Taylor and MJD. Start both with confidence.

Brad
The Jaguars have clinched a Wild Card berth while the Raiders are playing for next year. First overall pick JaMarcus Russell is not scheduled to start but should see some playing time. The Raiders will also be without RB Justin Fargas who is out for the year with a sprained knee. Jacksonville has been on a roll and should not let up as they head for the playoffs.
Stud: Fred Taylor, RB Jacksonville. Taylor has topped the 100-yard mark in four straight games and has scored a TD in three of them. The Raiders are 31st in the league at stopping the run. Taylor should have a field day.
Dud: Josh McCown, QB Oakland. McCown hasn’t topped 160 yards in a game since opening day and he is unlikely to play the entire contest this Sunday as JaMarcus Russell will almost certainly play. The Jaguars have a vulnerable pass defense but the Raiders won’t be able to take advantage.
Sleeper: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jacksonville. The Jaguars running game is a two-man party and Jones-Drew should also be very productive. He had 99 total yards last week against a tough Pittsburgh defense. He should add to that against a weak Raiders unit.

Sunday 4:00 PM ET
Atlanta at Arizona

Brad
The Falcons are a mess and must be looking forward to the end of this season that was over before it began. Interim Coach Emmitt Thomas is a good coach who is in a thankless situation. He deserved a shot at a head coaching job many years ago but probably didn’t get it because of racial considerations. To judge him by the performance of the Falcons now is unfair. The Cardinals are out of the playoffs now but are heading in the right direction under rookie head coach, Ken Whisenhunt. Two more wins and the Cards can finish at .500.

Stud: Edgerrin James, RB Arizona. James has quietly gone over 1,000 yards for the season and had 95 total yards last week. The Falcons have trouble stopping the run and James should have a good game.
Dud: Warrick Dunn, RB Atlanta. Dunn has carried only 24 times for 52 yards in the last three games and is losing playing time to Jerious Norwood. Don’t look for a big game from Dunn this Sunday.
Sleeper: Chris Redmond, QB Atlanta. No, you’re not going crazy. Redmond has a favorable matchup. As a fantasy QB, Redmond had two good games and one disaster which came last week. The Cardinals pass defense is one of the league’s weakest and Redmond should be able to put up good numbers.

Dan
Atlanta, they are terrible. Jerious Norwood is getting more carries, and is a lot more explosive than Warrick Dunn, but you probably have better options if you’re in the playoffs. Michael Jenkins has been more involved of late, but Roddy White has been the man in the passing game all year. I still give Roddy the nod in this one. It looks like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will both play this week, so Bryant Johnson, Jerheme Urban and Steve Breaston likely lose whatever value they had. Edgerrin James has a great matchup here.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Dan
Frank Gore has been more involved lately, and ran for 100 yards last week. His matchup isn’t great this week, but he is their entire offense right now, so he’s worth a play unless you have better options. Tampa completely dominated Atlanta last week, and San Francisco’s defense isn’t any scarier than Atlanta’s. Start your usual Bucs this week.

Brad
Even though they’ve clinched a playoff berth and cannot earn a bye, the Bucs are still hoping to finish as the NFC’s third seed so don’t look for them to let up. Jon Gruden isn’t the kind of coach who knows how to take his foot off the accelerator anyway. The 49ers are coming off one of their best efforts of the season, a mistake free victory over the Bengals on national TV. They may be playing for Coach Mike Nolan’s job.

Stud: Tampa Bay Defense. The 49ers have one of the least effective offenses in the league and the Bucs’ defense is stellar. If the Bucs can contain Frank Gore, they will shut down the San Francisco passing game as well. Tampa Bay ranks third in the league against the run and is tied for first in points allowed.
Dud: Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco. Hill played a good game last week but is not prime fantasy material. At his best, he’s an average fantasy QB and the Bucs’ defense will keep him from playing his best on Sunday.
Sleeper: Earnest Graham, RB Tampa Bay. Graham has been a great mid-season pickup in most leagues. Last week, Graham had 119 total yards and scored a TD for the sixth straight game. San Francisco is 23rd in the league against the run.

Miami at New England

Brad
The Dolphins are finally off the snide after beating the Ravens in overtime last week. The Patriots are two games away from being the first team since Don Shula’s 1972 Dolphins to finish the regular season with a perfect record. The cold weather slowed down the New England offense a week ago and the team has struggled (relatively) for the past few games. That being said, they still haven’t lost a game. The Dolphins are very banged up and severely outclassed but they still haven’t quit and should give the Pats a game. Don’t expect New England to let up in their quest for perfection.

Stud: Tom Brady, QB New England. Brady hasn’t been as dominant the past few weeks but he’s still the league’s MVP. He wants to break Peyton Manning’s season TD mark and lead the Pats to a perfect season. Miami may not have Jason Taylor available which would only make Brady’s job easier. Dud: Miami Defense. The Dolphins defense is overmatched against New England. Unless the weather is very bad, stay far away from the Fish’s defense.
Sleeper: Randy Moss, WR New England. Again, Moss has been relatively quiet the past few games but he should bounce back this Sunday. In the first meeting with Miami this season, Moss had 122 yards and 2 TDs.

Dan
This will be all that Jets-Patriots should have been. Start all your Patriots. Samkon Gado hasn’t been great, but he’s been scoring touchdowns. Gado will lose carries with Jesse Chatman likely playing this week, so both are risky plays. But, New England has been run on at times this season, and Miami ran well against them in their last matchup, so if you’re desperate, monitor this situation and play Chatman if he’s healthy.

Baltimore @ Seattle

Dan
Seattle can be run on this year, so start Willis McGahee if you haven’t been using him for some reason. With Marcus Trufant likely on Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton has a chance to make some noise. Only start him if you’re desperate, though. Seattle can’t run lately and probably won’t try to against Baltimore’s stout run D. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram have great matchups here and are definite starts. Nate Burleson is also worth a look.

Brad
The Seahawks are battling for the third spot in the NFC playoffs with the Bucs but other than that, have little incentive. The Ravens are toast, having lost eight straight games including an embarrassing defeat against the previously winless Dolphins last Sunday. It may already be too late for the Ravens to save Brian Billick’s job.

Stud: Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seattle. The Ravens run defense is still solid but the pass defense ranks 23rd in the league. The Seahawks struggle to run the ball but throw it just fine. Hasselbeck threw for only one TD last week but has 25 for the season and should fine easy pickings against the Ravens.
Dud: Shaun Alexander, RB Seattle. Baltimore’s run defense is 2nd in the league and Alexander has only gained 50 yards or more in a game once in the last seven games he’s played. Maurice Morris will split carries with Alexander as the Seahawks struggle to find a running game in time for the playoffs.
Sleeper: Willie McGahee, RB Baltimore. McGahee topped 100 yards again last week against the Dolphins. He remains the only constant in the Ravens’ attack and the Seahawks run defense is average at best.

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee

Brad
The Jets played the Patriots tough last week but lost yet again while the Titans gutted out a win over the Chiefs that kept their playoff hopes alive. The Jets will likely start Chad Pennington at QB as Kellen Clemens injured his rib although Coach Eric Mangini will not make an official announcement. Tennessee needs this game more than the Jets who are just playing out the string.

Stud: LenDale White, RB Tennessee. White has gained 216 rushing yards in the last two games. The Jets run defense is 30th in the league. With the Titans unable to rely on their passing attack, White will be their main weapon.
Dud: Justin Gage, WR Tennessee. The Titans are very inconsistent when throwing the ball and Gage has been a non-factor the past two games, catching four passes for 57 yards and 0 TDs. The Jets pass defense is not bad but the biggest problem Gage faces is the inconsistency of Vince Young
Sleeper: Tennessee Defense. The Jets can’t throw the ball down the field with Pennington at QB and the Titans should be able to slow down the New York running game. The Jets shouldn’t put up too many points.

Dan
LenDale White is back to getting most of the carries for the Titans, and he will pound the Jets all day. He’s a must-start. Roydell Williams and Justin Gage have been the most active in the Titans’ passing attack, but Williams has caught more TDs. He’s worth a look against this Jets pass D. The Titans can be run on lately, but who is still starting Thomas Jones? Laveranues Coles and Jericho Cotchery are both usable this week, but Coles may be out with a knee, so monitor his status.

Sunday 8:15 PM ET

Washington at Minnesota

Dan
Adrian Peterson will be the focal point here, and is a start as always. Tarvaris Jackson looked bad last week against Chicago, and Sidney Rice, who is unlikely to play this week, was the only receiver in Minnesota who was worth even a look, so sit the rest of your Vikings. Clinton Portis has been running very well lately, but he’s benchable against Minny if you have other options. The Vikings have among the worst pass defenses in the league, so Santana Moss is a start.

Brad
The winner of this game will have the inside track to the final NFC playoff spot. Minnesota controls their own destiny and just needs to win their final two games to make the postseason. They have won five straight games despite an inconsistent passing game. The Redskins have dedicated their season to the late Sean Taylor who was murdered earlier this month in his home. This is a big game for both teams.

Stud: Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota. Peterson had 95 total yards and 2 TDs against the Bears. The Redskins have a good run defense but Peterson should be rounding back into form as he gradually recovers from his knee injury.
Dud: Clinton Portis, RB Washington. Portis will have trouble against the Minnesota run defense which is the league’s best. Portis is at his best in between the tackles and that’s where the Vikings’ run defense is strongest. Look for a lower rushing total for Portis than usual.
Sleeper: Todd Collins, QB Washington. While the Vikings run defense is the league’s best, their pass defense ranks dead last. Collins is a wily veteran who made his first start last week in 10 years and led the Redskins to a big win in the swirling winds of Giants Stadium. He should have a very good game against Minnesota.


Monday 8:30 PM ET

Denver at San Diego

Brad
The Broncos are playing out the string and are just 2-5 on the road. The Chargers overcame a slow start to clinch the AFC West title but they cannot earn a first round bye in the playoffs. Denver was beaten handily by Houston last Thursday while the Chargers crushed the Lions.

Stud: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB San Diego. Tomlinson is on his usual late-season roll and has been the catalyst for the Chargers offense. The Broncos have had trouble stopping the run all year and are ranked 29th.
Dud: Travis Henry, RB Denver. Henry is playing but he has admitted his knee won’t be 100 percent for the rest of this season. He will also split carries with Selvin Young and other backs so don’t look for a big game from him Monday night.
Sleeper: Jay Cutler, QB Denver. The Chargers weakness on defense is their secondary and Cutler has been improving in fits and starts over the course of the year.

Dan
LaDainian Tomlinson is dominating again, and just in time for the fantasy playoffs too. Who does he have this week: the NFL’s 4th worst run defense? I’d sit Chambers and Vincent Jackson against Denver’s Champ-Bly combo. Brandon Marshall has been the only active Denver WR lately, so sit the others. San Diego has also been weak against the run, so Selvin Young and Travis Henry have good matchups. It’s up to the evil Mike Shanahan who gets more touches, so start them at your own risk as usual.

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