Thursday, October 25, 2007

WEEK EIGHT FANTASY PREVIEW

Oakland @ Tennessee
I still can’t really believe that Kerry Collins is still in the NFL, but he actually put up nice numbers last week, despite not throwing a touchdown. It looks like Vince Young will be back this week, but that doesn’t really change much for Tennessee receivers, who haven’t been great or reliable all year. For Oakland, get Ronald Curry in there: you can’t run on them, so the Raiders are going to have to pass. It was interesting to see Dominic Rhodes get 9 carries and perform similarly to LaMont Jordan, but save that nugget for after the Titans.

Detroit @ Chicago
Kevin Jones has been a tease in that offense for years, and he’s doing it again. Since I am a sucker for talented running backs in explosive offenses, I’ll take the bait (sigh…). Jones scored again last week, and received the bulk of the carries. Mike Martz is never gonna be a pounder, but he will get the ball to the backs in the passing game (great for PPR leaguers), and Jones has seen decent success lately. Meanwhile, Chicago continues to allow opposing runners to beat them.

Before I talk about Chicago, I need to introduce you all to one of my favorite lame fantasy players: Muhsin Muhammad. Muhsin is 34, slow, on a weird lame offense, and has been generally disrespected in the fantasy world the last few years. Well, I have been in some pretty dire WR situations on my teams the last few years (especially this year…some readers are perhaps laughing at this understatement as they read this), and am always looking for guys like this to get me through. Muhammad also happens to be a large man for a receiver, and he’s crafty, especially in the end zone. Muhsin has caught a TD in 3 of the 4 games since Brian Griese has taken the job from Sexy Rexy, and has another excellent matchup this week. Get him in there, and join me in praising his fantasy contributions.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota
So it looks like the only thing that can stop the Viking running game is the Viking passing game (and Dallas I guess…but you get my meaning). I went into this season looking for a neato prediction for a team that could come out of nowhere, and mine was the Vikings. I thought, look, they had a ridiculous run defense last season, an effective runner (Taylor), and a stud rookie runner (Peterson), and all the talking heads we love so much can’t ever stop talking about how running and stopping the run are the keys to success in the National Football League (does anyone else think it’s a bit smug the way they always call it the National Football League, as though it were base to abbreviate such a hallowed organization?). I thought if there could be a way that Tarvaris Jackson was any better than terrible that they had a shot to make some noise. Especially in that division. I mean, he was a second round pick. Well, guess what happened…

Anyway, in regards to this game, Philly has had a good record vs. the run, but I think they’re overrated. They’ve faced GB (don’t even try to run), Washington (can’t score much against anyone but Detroit), Detroit (don’t like to run, and were down by a klabillion points early), the Giants (without the punishing and scary Brandon Jacobs), the Jets (who ran for over 100), and Chicago (Cedric Benson doesn’t like football). So, yeah, overrated. Start Peterson, and give Taylor a look if you need him: he’s been quietly effective with the touches he’s gotten since AP exploded, and caught some passes last week too.

Cleveland @ St. Louis
Steven Jackson’s back! Don’t hesitate starting him here. This is one of those games where almost anyone you have has a chance to be productive. Look for Bulger to bounce back and for Isaac Bruce to finally do something. Start Jamal Lewis, or his replacement, Jason Wright, depending on injury status. Joe Jurevicius also has a great matchup.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Kenny Watson. I watch my Jets play the Bengals, expect Chad and Houshmandzadeh to run all over the place, but why use awesome players to win when you can use obscure ones that mess up the fantasy world? Sit the Bengal runners this week against Pitt, though. I love Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward this week, for obvious Bengal-defense-related reasons.

Indianapolis @ Carolina
Kenton Keith stole Joseph Addai’s show on Monday Night, which should make sense to us based on Indy’s history of using two running backs. He looked good too. Keith is a decent play this week against Carolina given his success against that stout Jacksonville D last week. I hate to rain on Vinny Testaverde’s parade here, but did anyone else notice that on his touchdown pass to Steve Smith that the cornerback sorta, like, stopped playing football while the ball was in the air, and that Smith walked into the endzone? Vinny, god bless him, came back “off his couch”, “from mowing his lawn”, “from watching the games last Sunday”, etc., in 2005 for the Jets and, um, wasn’t good. I’m just not buying him yet. But, from the numbers this year, fantasy players want him in there because David Carr looks worse.

New York Giants @ Miami
I was watching the games last week with a couple of friends, one of whom is (was) a Ronnie Brown owner. I had just advised him on keeping Brown going forward despite the Dolphins’ tough schedule coming up. He had always planned on selling Brown before the Patriots game, assuming he would play well against the bad teams earlier on the schedule and would return to his normal Ronnie Brown form soon enough. Well, Ronnie Brown went on to lead running backs in points, and I told him I thought he had been far too dominant and involved in the offense for his production to dip too much. Ronnie Brown Owner decided to keep him, and as we were watching he was thanking me for my wisdom, as Brown was having another good day. About a minute later, Brown tore his ACL on a broken turnover play. Ouch. The good news for some of us is Jesse Chatman didn’t look too bad, and he has a decent matchup this week. My Ronnie Brown Owner friend wasn’t so lucky as to be able to claim Chatman. That privilege went to the guy in our league who irritates everyone with his outlandish trade demands. Ugh.

Meanwhile, in London (London?), the Giants are growing on me. I maintain they haven’t really beaten anyone good, but the Dolphins certainly aren’t good, so look for more of the same from your G-Men. Miami can’t stop anything. Jacobs has looked the best in the backfield, and should continue to get most carries.

Buffalo @ New York Jets
These two very stoppable forces and moveable objects meet again in their second divisional showdown. Chad Pennington, everyone’s favorite noodly-armed pigskin tosser, will be starting again. Mangini seems to think he is doing a lot of good things amidst the bad things, and he’s probably right. The Jets are just not good. But, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Chris Baker all have good matchups here. So do Thomas Jones and little Leon Washington. So do Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish. Yeah, these defenses are bad…

Houston @ San Diego
It’ll be interesting to see how the Chargers handle having an actual wide receiver in their offense. The only wide receiver who has caught over 60 passes for them since David Boston in 2003 was old man Keenan McCardell, and he was old (David Boston!) Chambers is definitely a start here, and we’ll see what happens. He should provide the deep threat to open up Tomlinson and Gates even more, but Chambers is a bit of a flake who has the drops and doesn’t run clean routes consistently. The Chargers have a very beatable secondary, so my boy Kevin Walter, who I have hated on in the past but seems to continue to get looks and catches, as well as his cohort Andre Davis, are good starts this week. I’d consider sitting Ahman Green against them, though. Also, keep in mind that this game has a chance of being postponed due to the wildfires near San Diego, so keep an eye on how your league deals with this.

Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay
In one of the more pathetic displays of quarterback play in recent memory, Quinn Gray came in for David Garrard on Monday Night, and will be starting for the Jags for the next few weeks. Yeesh. The Jaguars really have no choice but to run the ball now, which elevates Fred Taylor’s and Maurice Jones-Drew’s stock. Since you were not starting any Jaguar receivers, continue to not start them (I mean, none of you were starting them, were you?). The Bucs’ Earnest Graham had himself a game with 92 rushing yards and 13 catches on the day that Michael Bennett came to town. I still think Graham is the better play going forward because he’ll get the goal line carries, but Bennett looked good. I’d only start Graham this week, though, and he isn’t a great play. Jeff Garcia, by the way, hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year. Just thought that was cool; don’t start him here.

New Orleans @ San Francisco
Devery Henderson finally caught a touchdown, but it was his only catch, and only target of the day. Fluke! I hate Devery. The interesting question is: who is the Saints’ second receiver behind Colston. It looked like David Patten again last week (I think my Lance Moore experiment is over…), but I just don’t trust Patten somehow: he was irrelevant for so long after leaving the Pats, and for him to just emerge as significant again out of nowhere smells funny to me. If you’re desperate for a receiver this week, Patten and Moore are decent reach plays since Nate Clements will be on Colston. It looks like Alex Smith will end the short-lived Trent Dilfer era in San Francisco this week, so start keeping an eye on their receiver situation again. I’m still sort of attached to Darrell Jackson despite his lameness this year, but watch Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle also. If Jackson plays, he has a good matchup against the Saints. Battle saw most of the looks last week, and he’s also a solid play.

Washington @ New England
The Skins have a great defense, but who cares. Tom Brady is driven, and as long as Randy Moss can catch touchdowns in double coverage with his biceps (one of the sickest catches I have ever seen), he’s unstoppable. Laurence Maroney looked awful, and I’d stay away from him for a while: they seem content to just pass anyway, even when they’re up 50. I don’t like Washington’s offense this week. Portis had a great game last week, but this is not the Cardinals, and they’re going to be passing in their futile attempt to keep up with Tom WelMossworth. Santana Moss is having serious problems these days, and I’d stay away.

Green Bay @ Denver
This is an interesting matchup for Green Bay because Denver stops the pass but can’t stop the run. Do the Packers dare leave their fate in the hands of DeShawn Wynn and Vernand Morency? Start Wynn. Denver doesn’t have a great fantasy matchup here, so Brandon Marshall may have a tough time. Travis Henry has some uncertainty surrounding him this week, so keep an eye on whether or not he plays. Denver, as usual, has like 12 guys who could play (namely 3 guys named Selvin Young, Andre Hall, and Cecil Sapp), so if Henry is out it’s anybody’s guess who will emerge. The favorite is Young.