Thursday, September 27, 2007

FFI: MNF GAME NOTES

FFI: MNF GAME NOTES
SEPTEMBER 26th, 2007



MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WEEK 3

So what if the Saints, ain’t what everyone thought they were? So what do you say Denny Green, are they who you thought they were? So far this season, they have been anything, but what fantasy owners want them to be. On Monday Night the team out of New Orleans pulled another no show as they were upstaged by their counterparts from Tennessee.

Young the Passer

The game itself had very little storyline as the New Orleans Saints continued to struggle in 2007. What some people anticipated being a charged up night of excitement from the home team in front of a delirious crowd was far less. In fact the only player making noise in the early going was the Titans 2nd year quarterback Vince Young.

Young displayed the maturity of an age-old veteran, showing composure and assertive decision making in the early going. Young led the Titans to an early 10-0 lead in the first half on a 35 yard pass to his receiver Brandon Jones. The offense was supported with the tough rushing of Len Dale White, who carried the ball 17 times for 50 yards, including a one-yard run in the 3rd quarter.

On the evening Young finished with 14 of 22 passing for 164 yards and two scores to lead the Titans. Although Young did not pad the stat book, he continually made plays he had to throughout the evening to keep his team in position to win and that may have been the biggest difference between the two starting quarterbacks on Monday Night.

The Saints team leader and starting quarterback Drew Brees, just could not find his rhythm all evening. Brees fired 45 balls on the night completing 29, but most were to underneath routes for very short yardage. Brees passed for 225 yards in what looked like a repeat performance of NFL opening night to many that watched.


The Saints offense produced very little excitement and even less to cheer about. Limited to only 13 touches on the evening, running back Reggie Bush could only muster 35 yards of offense. Brees had all sorts of trouble connecting downfield and had just as much trouble turning the ball over. As a result Brees was pick-off four times, including three by Titan’s linebacker Keith Bulluck, the last of which came with :58 left on the clock, sealing New Orleans fate in a 31-14 loss.

Spin:
The Saints have to be one of the biggest surprises and disappointments in the 2007 season. Returning with virtually the same offensive talent as a year ago, the team is just unable to generate points (12.6 pts/game). Defenses seem to be scheming much better and are doing a solid job accounting for the elusive RB Reggie Bush. Brees appears to be in a funk and there’s not telling when he’ll snap out of it. As long as this trend continues many fantasy owners will have to endure the misery right along with the Saints.


MNF
Studs…
For the record, there were no real Studs last Monday, just a couple of honorable mentions. The Titans Vince Young threw two touchdowns on the night, but only passed for 164 yards. His passing numbers may never be Manning-like, but Young is a playmaker and finds ways to score. In most fantasy leagues touchdowns are big, so as long as Young finds the end-zone he will always have good value.

Just the name Brandon Jones is not going to scare anyone, but the capable receiver has potential to make more noise this season. As his quarterback grows and matures, so will Jones’ production. On Monday, the Titan’s wideout played well, catching 4 passes for 73 yards, including a 35 yard score.

Busts…
The is no question, thus far this season, there have been no bigger busts than running back Reggie Bush and quarterback Drew Brees. Bush has only reached the end-zone twice this season and is averaging a mediocre 2.8 yards per carry. His 16 catches put him on a pace to catch 80 balls this season, but he is only averaging 4.4 yards per reception. Brees, on the other hand is playing even more poorly since he is coming off a 4500 yard passing season. In his first three starts Brees has passed for a mere 677 yards, most coming in garbage time, while turning the ball over 9 times (7 ints, 2 fum) for a passer rating of 57.1. If you put that all together, Bush and Brees spell fantasy nightmare.

Montsers (IDP)…
Whenever a player comes up with three picks in one game, including the icer, he IS a monster! On the evening the Titans linebacker, Keith Bulluck finished with four tackles to go with his career high 3 interceptions. Another notable for the evening was Titans linebacker David Thorton, who finished with 13 tackles, including 10 solo.

One’s to watch…
The Titans tightend Bo Scaife, considered to be a very good pass receiving option, had 3 catches for 26 yards and a score. As Young continues to develop his passing legs, Scaife could see his numbers increase.

Sleepers…
The Saints did see a few good things in their loss to the Titans and that was the play of wide receiver Lance Moore. Moore was very active in the passing game with 6 catches for 54 yards. As the Saints go forward and look for ways to spark the offense, it would not surprise to see the team turn to some of its younger raw talent like Moore.

Don’t hold your breaths…
Many fantasy owners were getting very excited when Chris Brown broke loose for 175 yards in week one. Some could be anxiously awaiting for another explosive performance from the Titans running back, but now demoted to the back-up spot behind White, it could be a long wait.

~David G.Ortega
FFI

WEEK FOUR FANTASY PREVIEW

Dan Lewis, Fantasy Football Insiders

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Green Bay comes into this game hot, having just overcome its biggest test of the year against San Diego last Sunday. Brett Favre looks great so far, which should continue against this Vikings defense. Minny has been great at stopping the run, but not the pass. Start Favre and WR Donald Driver for sure. WR Greg Jennings came back last week and got as many looks as WR James Jones, who had served as the Pack’s #2 for the first two games. Jennings also caught and ran for the game-winning touchdown. Both are decent starts if you need them. I would sit all Packer RBs this week. Between the muddled rotation of runners and the Vikings’ stifling run defense, this is not a good week for Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn, or anyone else running for Green Bay. TEs Donald Lee and Bubba Franks remained solid last week, with Lee catching four passes and Franks catching a TD, so use them if you need them again. For Minnesota, RB Adrian Peterson remains the team’s only viable fantasy option. RB Chester Taylor may be back this week, but Peterson remains the play here regardless. I’d sit Taylor until he shows something.

Oakland @ Miami

Miami RB Ronnie Brown exploded for 3 TDs and over 200 yards of total offense vs. the Jets last week. Oakland is allowing over 100 yards to opposing running backs this season, so Ronnie has another nice matchup here. Get him in. WR Chris Chambers is also a nice play; he is getting by far the most targets from QB Trent Green, and is bound to catch a touchdown soon. Oakland RB LaMont Jordan is having a great season, and should play well against the Dolphins, who allow close to 140 yards per game to running backs. Coach Lane Kiffin has not revealed whether Josh McCown or Daunte Culpepper will start this week, but I’d stay away from this situation for now. Start WR Ronald Curry, who is getting the majority of the looks for Oakland. WR Jerry Porter is also getting targeted, but hasn’t been able to make many plays yet. If you’re desperate for a WR this week, give Porter a look.

New York Jets @ Buffalo

Buffalo enters this game without starting QB J.P. Losman. While Losman has not been very good this season, he is still their starting QB, and losing him will hurt, especially with rookie Trent Edwards starting. Stick with WR Lee Evans this week despite his slow start. WR Peerless Price is worth a look if you really, really need a WR in a pinch. Marshawn Lynch is also a good start against a porous Jets run D. For New York, Thomas Jones had his best game of the year last week, and should have another good one vs. the Bills. QB Chad Pennington has a nice matchup if you need a bye week fill-in. WRs Laveranues Coles and Jericho Cotchery are also nice plays. TE Chris Baker isn’t too involved in the offense, but continues to get lots of looks in the endzone, and caught another touchdown last week. He’s a nice play. The Jets’ defense, surprisingly, has a really nice matchup against a Buffalo offense led by a rookie QB, and is startable if you need it.

Houston @ Atlanta

Houston TE Owen Daniels had 7 catches last week, and will play well again, especially with top WR Andre Johnson out again this week. Don’t expect much from the rest of the Houston WR corps, as Atlanta has been good at shutting down opposing wide-outs; Carolina’s Steve Smith was held to a single catch last week. RB Ahman Green had an MRI this week on his injured knee, and it remains unclear for now whether or not he will play. However, whoever does start for Houston at RB has a great matchup against Atlanta. If Green is out, Ron Dayne is the logical choice to start, but monitor the situation as Sunday approaches. Whether it’s Green, Dayne, or Samkon Gado, give them a look depending on who starts. Houston’s defense is also a good start this week against Atlanta. For the Falcons, start TE Alge Crumpler. WR Roddy White seems to be QB Joey Harrington’s favorite target, and had a good game last week with 7 catches and a TD. If you need him, start him. Atlanta RBs are not good starts. Neither is QB Joey Harrington.

Chicago @ Detroit

The Bears have been in the news this week because of the benching of disappointing QB Rex Grossman. QB Brian Griese was given a gorgeous matchup for his first week as the starter, and you should give him a look if you need a fill-in. Detroit is allowing almost 300 yards passing per game, and let Donovan McNabb and Kevin Curtis torch them repeatedly last week. WR Bernard Berrian is a great play this week, and WR Muhsin Muhammad, despite having done very little thus far, is worth a look this week against Detroit. RB Cedric Benson hasn’t been impressive yet, but the Lions are about as good a matchup as he’s going to get. You have to start him. Continue to monitor RB Adrian Peterson, though, as coach Lovie Smith seems to be tiring of Benson and could give more of the load to Peterson. TE Desmond Clark has a decent chance to catch a TD, too. Chicago’s defense hasn’t been as dominant as expected this season, and the Lions’ offense is explosive. QB Jon Kitna and WR Roy Williams are strong starts. WRs Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald split the remaining WR targets last week after WR Calvin Johnson went down with a back injury. Both are decent plays this week, especially if Calvin can’t go. I hesitate to recommend RB Tatum Bell this week, but the Bears have not stopped the run well, allowing close to 100 yards per game, and close to 6 catches per game to running backs. They’re also missing Tommie Harris from their D-line. You can start him if you need him.

St. Louis @ Dallas

One of the top pickups this week has been St. Louis rookie RB Brian Leonard, who is filling in for the injured Steven Jackson. Leonard is a play because he is a starting running back who is known for having good hands out of the backfield, but the Cowboys are tough against the run this season, and Steven Jackson hadn’t seen too much success thus far. QB Marc Bulger and WR Torry Holt are also starts, just like every week, but the Rams will likely have more problems going forward having lost yet another starting offensive lineman last week (G Mark Setterstrom). WR Isaac Bruce injured his head last week, but it appears he will be ready to play. Start him if you need him. TE Randy McMichael has been very disappointing, and I’m done starting him for now. Dallas’ offense has been stellar. QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber III, WR Terrell Owens are starts every week, and should see plenty of success against St. Louis’ defense. Jason Witten is becoming an every week play, but the Rams have played decently against the tight end. Play him anyway. RB Julius Jones is losing his role for the Cowboys, but he may be able to break a long one against this defense. He’s a good bye week fill-in this week.

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Baltimore’s QB picture is messy, but both Kyle Boller and Steve McNair look for WR Derrick Mason and TE Todd Heap plenty, so start them. RB Willis McGahee is a start against the Browns’ unimpressive defense. Mark Clayton had a nice debut last week, and Cleveland won’t do much to stop him. Even WR Demetrius Williams could make some noise here. Other than WR Braylon Edwards (if you need him) and TE Kellen Winslow, sit all of your Browns this week against Baltimore.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Tampa Bay was impressive again last week against the Rams, but questions abound in the backfield. RB Carnell Williams was benched after a fumble, and RB Earnest Graham came in and ran for 75 yards and 2 TDs on just 8 carries. RB Michael Pittman also contributed. The question this week is who will be the main back for coach Jon Gruden. Gruden reaffirmed that Williams is the feature back, but Gruden can be unpredictable. Earnest Graham is a great pickup this week, and he’s playable if you need a fill-in. The Bucs always want to commit to the run, especially in the red zone, so Graham has a chance to do some damage even if he isn’t featured this week. Cadillac is a play regardless, but don’t be surprised if Gruden does something crazy. QB Jeff Garcia was good again last week, and is a good bye week fill-in. WR Joey Galloway is also a play. TE Alex Smith hasn’t done too much yet this year, but Carolina hasn’t been great vs. the tight end, and he could get some looks. Play him if you’re desperate. Carolina has some questions at QB entering this week, so keep an eye on whether Jake Delhomme or David Carr starts. I wouldn’t start either one, though, against this improved Bucs defense. TE Jeff King remains one of their favorite targets, so play him if you need him this week. WR Steve Smith had a tough time against Atlanta last week, but he’s a stud, so start him. Tampa allowed the Rams’ Steven Jackson to slowly pound his way to over 100 yards, but Carolina won’t commit to one of its runners enough for either one to have a huge game this week. They are decent plays.

Seattle @ San Francisco

Seattle RB Shaun Alexander has a broken wrist, but will play; it doesn’t change his status, so start him. WRs Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, and Bobby Engram continue to get most of the targets from QB Matt Hasselbeck, and all are decent plays again this week. San Francisco’s offense hasn’t quite gotten it together this year yet. Seattle’s defense against the pass is average, so you can start WRs Darrell Jackson if you’ve been using him. RB Frank Gore hasn’t been great yet, but he’s talented and will turn it on eventually. Start him.

Kansas City @ San Diego

RB LaDainian Tomlinson wasn’t as successful against Green Bay as he and his owners had hoped for, but he scored. The Chiefs aren’t good against the run, so he should be able to get going here. QB Phillip Rivers threw for 300 yards in last week’s shootout, finding WRs Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis for a TD each. This shows Rivers can still do it, but he has been inconsistent since last season. You can’t count on this from week to week, but San Diego’s passing game has a nice matchup this week. The Chiefs continue to struggle on offense, with another tough matchup for RB Larry Johnson. I hate to advocate benching a first rounder for two weeks in a row, but I will. Sit him if you have a viable alternative. Start TE Tony Gonzalez, though.

Pittsburgh @ Arizona

Pittsburgh’s offense has been solid all year, and the Cardinals’ defense isn’t too imposing. Start QB Ben Roethlisberger, if you need him. RB Willie Parker and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are also good plays this week. TE Heath Miller continues to see an expanded role, so start him as well. The Cardinals have a strange QB situation at the moment. Kurt Warner played at two separate times for Arizona last week, and was effective. I’d stay away from both Warner and QB Matt Leinart simply to avoid this mess, but I’d start WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald because both are explosive and threats to score. RB Edgerrin James has a terrible matchup, and shouldn’t be played unless there is no other option.

Denver @ Indianapolis

The Colts have been tough against the run so far, but the Broncos pound RB Travis Henry, so start him. Start both WRs Javon Walker and Brandon Marshall, who continues to impress and outperformed Walker last week. QB Jay Cutler isn’t a great play, but a decent bye week fill-in. Start all your usual Colts. TE Dallas Clark caught another TD last week, and is getting close to an every week play.

Philadelphia @ New York Giants

Wow, Donovan. Way to shut all of your critics up. McNabb exploded last week and made WR Kevin Curtis look like a superstar. Curtis got all but 4 of the targets to WRs last week, and he seems to have become McNabb’s favorite receiver. Start him this week. WR Reggie Brown remains a huge disappointment, but the Giants’ defense has been bad this year, so it’s a good matchup. If you need him, give him one more try this week. RB Brian Westbrook has an injured knee and injured ribs, but he always plays despite his status. If it’s announced that he cannot go, RBs Correll Buckhalter and Tony Hunt will likely split carries. I’d prefer Buckhalter in that situation, but he is also nicked up. Watch these injuries closely as the week progresses and plan accordingly. The Giants’ offense woke up in the second half last week. Start QB Eli Manning if you need him. RB Derrick Ward continues to impress, but he may lose goal line carries to RB Reuben Droughns, as he did last week. He’s been good though, so start him. WR Plaxico Burress is a start, as is TE Jeremy Shockey.

New England @ Cincinnati

This matchup seems almost unfair. New England’s unstoppable offense meets the inept Bengals’ defense. WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker are getting most of QB Tom Brady’s attention, so start them, but sit WR Donte Stallworth, as he has done almost nothing all year. RB Laurence Maroney is a start, as is RB Sammy Morris (if you need him), who has been given more of a workload lately. The Bengals are bound to put up numbers, as they do every week, so start QB Carson Palmer, WRs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Monitor RB Rudi Johnson’s injury situation this week. If he goes, he’s a start. Otherwise, give RB Kenny Watson a look this week, but he may not get too many looks this week as Cincy tries to keep up with the Pats.