Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Art Of The Early Deal

By Ralph Mancini, NFL Draft Bible

There are two types of fantasy football enthusiasts, the ones who draft their players with the mindset that they will live and die with them and there are those who love living on the edge. If you’re one of those who enjoy walking on the wild side and treat the game as one continuous “buy and sell” venture in the effort of progressively reinforcing your team, you’re probably already scheming on the numerous trade possibilities that could seriously give you a leg-up on the competition.

Trading up or down in the draft order is only recommended if you know how your league drafts. Knowing the tendencies of others will help you determine whether the player you’re targeting will be available once you’ve made the exchange. But once draft day has come and gone, all bets are off. It’s now time to scour everyone’s personnel and start zeroing in on proven commodities that are sometimes taken for granted.

Take Tampa Bay’s Joey Galloway for instance. The grizzled 36-year-old put up another 1,000-yard season in 2006 despite catching passes from the inexperienced and underwhelming Bruce Gradkowski for most of the year. The noted speedster may be reaching the twilight of his career, but he still possesses the skills that have made him one of the better deep threats over the past 10 years. With new quarterback Jeff Garcia at the helm, Galloway will have many more opportunities to flash his big play ability and make defenses look silly.

Deion Branch is another undervalued wide out flying under the radar. With Darrell Jackson running routes in San Francisco, Branch now headlines Seattle’s wide receiver corps and things are looking very promising in the early going. The former Patriot has established good chemistry with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and has reportedly been uncoverable in practice. To his credit, Branch claims to have completely absorbed Seattle’s offensive scheme and is now just reacting rather than thinking his way through his routes.

The time to make a bid for these players is before the start of the regular season. Once they take off and start putting up numbers, their respective values will rise and your opportunity to trade for them fades. By the same token, the preseason is also a most propitious time to unload overhyped players whose considerable name value isn’t commensurate with their true fantasy potential. Sit too long on them and everyone will come to realize that these emperors are running around naked.

If Edgerrin James is on your roster, it may be a good idea to see if you can upgrade your team via the trade route. The Arizona Cardinals are once again one of the league’s offseason darlings and with a run oriented coaching staff on board, many seem to think that ole’ gold teeth is due to experience a renaissance and recapture some of his past glory.

Even if this year’s offensive line looks to be improved with newcomers Al Johnson and Levi Brown in the starting lineup, James showed no signs of being gamebreaker last year with his longest run going for a paltry 18 yards and so far this summer, he has looked rather sluggish. James recently mentioned that he’s gunning for Emmitt Smith’s all time record for rushing yards, but if last year’s 3.4 yards per carry average is any indication, the 29-year-old may need to play into his 40s to come within sniffing distance of his desired goal.

The prospects for second-year signal caller Vince Young are a bit more optimistic, but to expect him to perform like a top-ten quarterback may be too much to ask this early in his career. Unless you’re in a keeper league, it won’t hurt to see what Young can garner in a trade. For all his physical gifts, Young has yet to prove that he can beat defenses by standing in the pocket and throwing the ball. The departure of running back Travis Henry is sure to make life more hectic under center for the two-time Rose Bowl MVP. This isn’t to say that Young won’t be making any jaw-dropping plays this year, but it should serve as a warning to temper your expectations of him.

The Art Of The Early Deal

By Ralph Mancini, NFL Draft Bible

There are two types of fantasy football enthusiasts, the ones who draft their players with the mindset that they will live and die with them and there are those who love living on the edge. If you’re one of those who enjoy walking on the wild side and treat the game as one continuous “buy and sell” venture in the effort of progressively reinforcing your team, you’re probably already scheming on the numerous trade possibilities that could seriously give you a leg-up on the competition.

Trading up or down in the draft order is only recommended if you know how your league drafts. Knowing the tendencies of others will help you determine whether the player you’re targeting will be available once you’ve made the exchange. But once draft day has come and gone, all bets are off. It’s now time to scour everyone’s personnel and start zeroing in on proven commodities that are sometimes taken for granted.

Take Tampa Bay’s Joey Galloway for instance. The grizzled 36-year-old put up another 1,000-yard season in 2006 despite catching passes from the inexperienced and underwhelming Bruce Gradkowski for most of the year. The noted speedster may be reaching the twilight of his career, but he still possesses the skills that have made him one of the better deep threats over the past 10 years. With new quarterback Jeff Garcia at the helm, Galloway will have many more opportunities to flash his big play ability and make defenses look silly.

Deion Branch is another undervalued wide out flying under the radar. With Darrell Jackson running routes in San Francisco, Branch now headlines Seattle’s wide receiver corps and things are looking very promising in the early going. The former Patriot has established good chemistry with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and has reportedly been uncoverable in practice. To his credit, Branch claims to have completely absorbed Seattle’s offensive scheme and is now just reacting rather than thinking his way through his routes.

The time to make a bid for these players is before the start of the regular season. Once they take off and start putting up numbers, their respective values will rise and your opportunity to trade for them fades. By the same token, the preseason is also a most propitious time to unload overhyped players whose considerable name value isn’t commensurate with their true fantasy potential. Sit too long on them and everyone will come to realize that these emperors are running around naked.

If Edgerrin James is on your roster, it may be a good idea to see if you can upgrade your team via the trade route. The Arizona Cardinals are once again one of the league’s offseason darlings and with a run oriented coaching staff on board, many seem to think that ole’ gold teeth is due to experience a renaissance and recapture some of his past glory.

Even if this year’s offensive line looks to be improved with newcomers Al Johnson and Levi Brown in the starting lineup, James showed no signs of being gamebreaker last year with his longest run going for a paltry 18 yards and so far this summer, he has looked rather sluggish. James recently mentioned that he’s gunning for Emmitt Smith’s all time record for rushing yards, but if last year’s 3.4 yards per carry average is any indication, the 29-year-old may need to play into his 40s to come within sniffing distance of his desired goal.

The prospects for second-year signal caller Vince Young are a bit more optimistic, but to expect him to perform like a top-ten quarterback may be too much to ask this early in his career. Unless you’re in a keeper league, it won’t hurt to see what Young can garner in a trade. For all his physical gifts, Young has yet to prove that he can beat defenses by standing in the pocket and throwing the ball. The departure of running back Travis Henry is sure to make life more hectic under center for the two-time Rose Bowl MVP. This isn’t to say that Young won’t be making any jaw-dropping plays this year, but it should serve as a warning to temper your expectations of him.

On Location: Miami Dolphins Training Camp: Part II

By David Kaye, NFL Draft Bible

Offensive mastermind and first-year head coach Cam Cameron enters the 2007 season with four extremely talented and explosive running backs who are all qualified to be starters in the National Football League.

The current starter, Ronnie Brown, has been mediocre at best in his first two seasons, Jesse Chatman has not seen game action in two years, but has been effective in camp, rookie Lorenzo Booker brings a resume from Florida State and Patrick Cobbs rushed for 1,154 yards last season at North Texas.

The impression I received from Cam Cameron’s press conference Sunday is that he’s not completely sold on Brown’s ability and will look to feature more of the backups in prominent roles throughout the course of the season.

‘’Ronnie Brown is an ascending player who needs to keep on improving. That’s not what many people want to hear, but that’s the reality,’’ said Cameron. ‘’He’s a young back in terms of carrying the ball with experience. (We) need to give him a chance to develop. The evaluation of Ronnie Brown is far from over, far from over.’’

If Brown is supposed to play an integral part of the Dolphins offense and be their dependable running back who can be counted on in key situations, why would Cameron insist on continuing to give him a chance? Hasn’t the second overall pick in the 2005 draft had a chance to progress and mature over the past two seasons?

It comes a time when a player with that much ability and talent needs to elevate his game to the next level and be regarded as an elite back in the league. To score only nine rushing touchdowns in 28 games is inexcusable and it makes me think if he really is the answer for the Dolphins.

‘’You need at least two good backs in this system. We’re building some depth at that position and that’s exciting,’’ said Cameron. The practical solution in Miami will be to have Brown stay as the starting running back, but it’s very unlikely that he will distinguish himself as a star in this league.

On Location: Miami Dolphins Training Camp: Part 1

David Kaye, NFL Draft Bible

Our NFL Insider, David Kaye, brings you the latest news from Dolphins camp as he delivers the inside scoop from his visit to Miami.

Most people probably don't know about him but it has become one of the “feel-good� stories of the preseason. Dolphins running back Jesse Chatman is on the comeback trail.

During the 2004 season Jesse Chatman seemed to be slowly carving his way to success as the backup to LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego. In 15 games, he accumulated 392 rushing yards, three touchdowns, an unheard of 6.0 yards per carry and an increased sense of confidence that told him he could accomplish anything on the football field.

Before the 2005 season began, Chatman suffered a painful toe injury that would sideline him for the entire season. Instead of rehabbing and staying in top football shape, he permitted his weight to balloon to a whopping 270 pounds. At 5-foot-8 and a waist size unfit for an NFL running back, the Chargers released him on July 26, 2005.

After a brief stint with the Dolphins and Saints in 2005, Chatman was unemployed and took the 2006 season off in order to return to proper football shape. By the beginning of this year he had lost a remarkable 50 pounds and was ready to prove to general managers around the league that he could make a substantial impact on their team.

When the Miami Dolphins hired former San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron as head coach in January, Chatman immediately called him for an opportunity. So far- he has looked extremely impressive during the team's first two preseason games, rushing for 107 yards on 14 carries.

''I think he's grown a lot. We know that's a constant battle for us all, but I think he's just grown a lot as a man,'' Cameron said when asked if he's seen any changes in Chatman's personality.

''He was a young guy from Eastern Washington thrown into the NFL and that's a huge leap for a lot of guys. It's a huge leap for everybody, truth enough. He's overcome a lot. I tip my hat to him. He knows he still has a long way to go, but he's just become a lot more mature guy.'' The waiting period for Chatman is quickly closing as he's established himself as the number two back for the Dolphins, ahead of Lorenzo Booker and Patrick Cobbs. Until I spoke to local reporters at Dolphins training camp last Sunday, I did not realize the limited amount of playing time Booker has been receiving. When asked about the current running back situation during Sunday's press conference the first-year head coach said,''Don't read anything in between the lines. I'll tell you this, our best running back will play. We want to be in a position if our starting running back goes down we don't miss a beat.'' With that said, it seems highly likely that journeyman Jesse Chatman will see a considerable amount of carries for the Miami Dolphins this season.

NFL MUSINGS

By David Narushev, NFL Draft Bible

Expect Leon Washington and Thomas Jones to share more of the load than originally anticipated this season, especially since Jones pre-season injury will likely not have him at full speed by opening day. But even had Jones remained completely healthy, Washington would still have seen fair amount of touches per game. Eric Mangini isn’t the type of coach to overwork or underwork any of his players, instead he waits until the ideal game scenario arises and capitalizes accordingly with the right player in the right situation. Everything is tailored to maximize the strengths of the team, and nobody is asked to do more than they’re capable of. Seems obvious, but not every coach understands his team as well as a Mangini or Belichick (I’m looking at you Herm Edwards).

I’m not ready to go gaga over Vince Young yet. He had a nice rookie season (and was promptly overhyped to the moon), but his throwing mechanics still look like they need some fine tuning. He’s got this nasty habit of haphazardly whipping the ball out of his hand while releasing a pass, often getting a lot of air under it. This could lead to him becoming very interception-prone once the pocket starts to collapse or when throwing off balance, which he does far too often. Young’s arm strength and accuracy remain a question mark, and he certainly won’t be beating teams single-handedly with his legs, NFL defenses catch up to that and will develop schemes to contain him. I just don’t see him as a quarterback who can stand in the pocket and calmly pick a team apart; Young thrives on disorganized, sandlot football. I’m not saying he’ll be a bust or even that he’ll have a sophomore slump, but I see his career plateauing for a while as the league adapts to his game.

Anybody else miss the single bar facemask? I’m too young to remember the days when regular position players used to wear them, but they used to be a fixture on the helmets of the NFL’s scrawniest, goofiest looking kickers and punters until about 8-9 years ago. It was always funny watching them try to make a tackle during a long runback or muffed punt…or better yet, trying to advance the football on a botched field goal attempt. They’d either matador the ball carrier through, or give a halfhearted dive then get trampled by the thundering heard of players converging on them. It would make just about anyone long for their carefree days of intramural soccer in South Africa.

Tired of waiting around for the Arizona Cardinals to become the NFL’s hip new “surprise” team, it seems like all the experts have hitched their wagon to the San Francisco 49ers. Alex Smith doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence and an unreasonably abrasive (though dapper) head coach like Mike Nolan may alienate his team before they even get a taste of success. We may have to look elsewhere for Cinderella this year…Detroit perhaps? Kitna has shown he can be a good quarterback when not asked to do too much. They are deep at wide receiver and running back but still thin on the offensive and defensive lines. However, a quick examination of their schedule shows many of their opponents are even more flawed than they are. Don’t be shocked to see them pull out a nine win season as the Lions offense will just plain overwhelm some teams.

I have a hunch that we may not have seen the last of Bill Parcells on an NFL sideline. Sure he is 66 years old and probably overworked beyond belief, but as long as he can breathe, he can coach. And it’s absolutely unacceptable to him that Bill Belichick is walking around with more Super Bowl rings as a head coach. He has neither time nor patience to rebuild, but should there be a vacancy with a ready made team within the next four years, don’t be surprised to see Parcells jump at the opportunity for one more run at a title.

Though it may seem unrealistic at the moment, it’s my opinion that the Steelers will be Bill Cowher’s team again as soon as he’s ready to return from his mental health sabbatical. It could even occur by the 2009 season should Mike Tomlin fall flat on his face, which I don’t think will happen. It can’t be easy coaching in the Steel City, with the ghosts of Noll and Cowher constantly looking over your shoulder. Unreasonable expectations may doom Tomlin, as it almost doomed Cowher himself. A scenario may arise where if the Steelers brass doesn’t see Tomlin as the guy who can take them to the Super Bowl, and Cowher is entertaining offers from other teams, they might be tempted to go back to the sure thing instead of riding it out with Tomlin.

Be wary of both Jamal Lewis and Shaun Alexander. Alexander will be thirty at the start of the season, which is usually the end of the line for NFL backs. He’s lost a step, and was never that fast to begin with. Not a good sign, especially since he’s running behind an offensive line that is no longer among the NFL’s best. Lewis isn’t quite as old, but his poor yards per carry average the past two seasons may hint at there being too much tread gone from the tires. However, the Browns offensive line has improved on paper, and if they can finally get it together on the field then Lewis can probably squeeze out one more workhorse season.