Thursday, September 20, 2007

FAVORABLE FANTASY MATCHUPS

By Dan Lewis, Fantasy football Insiders

Miami @ New York Jets

The Jets have faced two tough defenses (Ravens and Patriots) in their first two games, but look for some improvement this week against the Dolphins. Miami allowed 191 yards rushing to Washington Week 1 and 166 to Baltimore Week 2. Looks like a nice opportunity for Thomas Jones turn it on. Start WRs Coles and Cotchery for the Jets as well, but sit QB Chad Pennington, if he even plays, to make sure he comes back well from his ankle injury. For Miami, WR Chris Chambers is second in targets on the season with 27, and is bound to get opportunities against the Jets and their lackluster pass rush (0 sacks in 2007). Marty Booker may even make some noise in this game. Start Ronnie Brown this week also, as he had 2 of his top 4 rushing performances of last year against the Jets.

San Francisco @ Pittsburgh

The Steelers have been dominant thus far, but face a solid 2-0 49ers team. Start RB Willie Parker. You can start WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, but don’t expect too much as San Francisco’s defense is far better than either Buffalo’s or Cleveland’s. This goes for Ben Roethlisberger as well. TE Heath Miller doesn’t always put up big numbers, but he gets looks in the endzone and has a chance to score every week, so use him if you need him. For the 49ers, Frank Gore is an every week start. Darrell Jackson has been disappointing thus far, and he faces a solid Pittsburgh defense. Temper expectations. Arnaz Battle was also disappointing after a strong Week 1, and until Alex Smith improves, these two receivers will have problems. Vernon Davis was irrelevant again, and until he shows some of his explosive potential, he’s staying on my bench.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay faces a defense not much better than the Saints’ squad that they scored on last week. Jeff Garcia is making a case for himself as a strong backup option, and with a few more solid performances could be considered as a matchup play going forward. Gruden seems committed to pounding Cadillac Williams, so he’ll get touchdown opportunities if they present themselves. Start him. Joey Galloway was his explosive self again, and he should have chances against the Rams again. We are all waiting for St. Louis’ Steven Jackson to turn it on. The more he plays, and the more the Rams’ retooled O-line can play together, the better Jackson will be. It’s not panic time yet, so get him in there. Bulger is an every week start, as is Torry Holt. Isaac Bruce made a strong case for himself last week with 8 catches for 145 yards, but Tampa’s defense is superior to New Orleans. Randy McMichael hasn’t clicked yet, and Tampa has been strong against tight ends so far this year. Not a strong play.

San Diego @ Green Bay

Two great defenses face off in this one, making it a tough game for players on both sides. Start LaDainian and Gates obviously. The Packers have a muddled running back picture, with rumors that DeShawn Wynn will start this week over rookie Brandon Jackson. Jackson had more carries last week, but Wynn was far more effective, averaging 5 yards per carry. However, neither is a good play against San Diego. Donald Driver is a start every week, and will likely get some looks as soon as the Chargers shut down the Packer running game. Both Green Bay TE Donald Lee and Bubba Franks had good games last week, but the Giants have been killed by tight ends the past two weeks now. Make those tight ends do it again before expecting too much.

Detroit @ Philadelphia

The feisty, pass-happy Lions face the disappointing Eagles, whose franchise quarterback looks distressed. Donovan McNabb had problems other than his own injuries on Monday night, but when he was given time to throw, and open receivers to throw to, he often missed them. This is a game for him to get back on track against a very weak Detroit defense, so start him if you need him. RB Brian Westbrook is dinged up again with that nagging knee, but he played well through several questionables last year, and he remains the Eagles only viable offensive option, especially in Coach Andy Reid’s stubborn pass-heavy offense. If he is ruled out for Sunday, Correll Buckhalter would likely start, but rookie Tony Hunt is also in the picture, and could emerge given the opportunity. Donovan has yet to develop chemistry with any of his receivers, so keep an eye on who he’s targeting this week; in the meantime, Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis have gotten the most looks, but Jason Avant and Hank Baskett will probably be in the mix as well. None is a particularly strong play. The Lions’ QB Jon Kitna is a start, as are Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, and a surprising Shaun McDonald, who has reunited with offensive coordinator Mike Martz from their days in St. Louis, and gotten more looks than last year’s surprise, Mike Furrey. RB Tatum Bell is an uninspiring play, as Martz has shown an eagerness to abandon the run in the past.

Arizona @ Baltimore

Despite Baltimore’s defense, WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are starts. Edgerrin James has gotten off to a nice start, but he faces a defense that has allowed only 60 yards rushing per game on the season, so sit him. Sit QB Matt Leinart as well. Steve McNair looks like he’ll play this week, but don’t play him. Derrick Mason has been targeted 12 times in both games this year; look for that to continue this week. Mark Clayton is working his way back from his toe injury. He is expected to reclaim his starting role for the Ravens, and he is a nice fantasy option if you need him. TE Todd Heap always starts.

Buffalo @ New England

This game should be a massacre. New England has been dominant, and Buffalo has been anemic. Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, and Randy Moss are starts and should all have very nice games. Brady is notorious in the fantasy world for spreading the ball to his receivers, but he’s been consistently targeting Moss and Wes Welker more often this year. He should be able to pass to whomever he wants in this one, and those two remain great plays this week. Temper expectations for Donte Stallworth, as he hasn’t done much yet. Benjamin Watson is also a good play. Buffalo’s Lee Evans remains a potential deep threat, so start him. Roscoe Parrish has the second most targets for the Bills behind Evans, and he could make some noise in garbage time once the Pats take a sizeable lead.

Indianapolis @ Houston

The surprising Texans face their division rivals, but without top WR Andre Johnson. This fact, coupled with Indy’s strong defense, lowers QB Matt Schaub’s potential this week. RB Ahman Green could catch some balls out of the backfield, and he is a decent play. No Texan WR not named Andre Johnson has more than 2 catches on the season, so monitor Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter to see who gets the looks, but don’t start either one this week.. Owen Daniels remains a decent TE option. Start all of your Colts (Manning, Addai, Harrison, Wayne, and even Dallas Clark, if he plays this week (neck)).

Minnesota @ Kansas City

Minnesota’s run-heavy offense faces the uninspiring Chiefs. QB Tarvaris Jackson may not play, but it doesn’t matter. Don’t start any Viking receivers or QBs. It looks at this point as though Chester Taylor may be back this week, so monitor the situation as Sunday approaches to see if you get a sense of how many carries he and Adrian Peterson will get. If Taylor is indeed back, both runners are strong plays. For the Chiefs, start Tony Gonzalez. RB Larry Johnson faces the top defense vs. the run in the NFL, and coupled with his slow start to the year (49 yards per game), I would look into alternate options this week.

Jacksonville @ Denver

Jacksonville has been unimpressive for fantasy thus far, including a disappointing start for RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Don’t look for the offense to get on track this week. If you have Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor, you may not have great alternatives, but temper expectations for them. For Denver, I’d start QB Jay Cutler, RB Travis Henry, and WR Javon Walker with high hopes. WR Brandon Marshall has also looked good, and he is startable.

Cleveland @ Oakland

Cleveland comes off of its astonishing 51 point game over the Bengals, but it ends here. I think Cincy’s defense may just be that bad… Oakland has a top defense vs. the pass, so sit Derek Anderson. Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius were nice plays last week, but not this week. Start Edwards if you need him. Kellen Winslow is a start this week. Look for Oakland WR Ronald Curry to bounce back from last week’s disappointing performance. LaMont Jordan has been nothing but impressive this year, and he should continue to play well this week.

Cincinnati @ Seattle

Look for Seattle WR Bobby Engram to emerge this week. Cincinnati can’t stop anybody, and Engram has been effective in the past for Mike Holmgren. Engram and Deion Branch will have nice games this week. Nate Burleson is actually also a good play for this week because of the Bengals’ defensive ineptitude. For those of you in scoring systems where offensive players earn points for kick returns, Burleson deserves serious consideration, as Cincy will score and give him ample opportunity to return kicks. Start the typical Bengals this week (Carson, Chad, TJ, and Rudi).

New York Giants @ Washington

Washington QB Jason Campbell comes off of an encouraging outing against the Eagles. He’s making a case for himself as a bye-week replacement and decent backup. Start both Santana Moss, as you do most weeks, and Antwaan Randle-El against the Giants’ inept defense. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts should play well. Betts has gotten fewer carries than some have speculated he might get this season, but against the Giants there should be enough gaping holes for 2 runners to share. Also, Happy Birthday, Chris Cooley owners. Expect an explosive day. The Giants have been terrible covering the TE thus far. For the Giants, start WR Plaxico Burress for sure, and the scrappy Derrick Ward and the improving Eli Manning, if you need them. Shockey is a decent play as well.

Carolina @ Atlanta

Atlanta may be the worst team in the NFL. They haven’t played a particularly strong offense yet, but Carolina will look great against them. Start Steve Smith for sure. WRs Keary Colbert and Drew Carter have been getting the rest of the targets from QB Jake Delhomme, but these aren’t particularly exciting options. The Carolina RB situation is muddled, but both DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams could have nice games this week. Start them if needed. Tight End Jeff King has gotten some looks from Delhomme as well, and if you are trapped in some sort of dire TE shortage, he’s worth a look this week vs. the Falcs. Alge Crumpler’s matchup is decent.

Dallas @ Chicago

Dallas will have its troubles vs. the Bears. RBs Marion Barber III and Julius Jones don’t have a great matchup, but Barber is a threat to score a touchdown every week, so start him. Terrell Owens and Tony Romo are also starts, but if you have another option at QB, consider it over Romo. No WR has established himself in place of injured Terry Glenn. Neither Patrick Crayton nor Sam Hurd has impressed, so leave them alone this week. Jason Witten seems to have taken advantage of his Week 1 matchup against the Giants, but had problems against the Dolphins last week, catching only 2 passes. The Bears won’t make things any easier on him. For Chicago, don’t expect much from Cedric Benson or Adrian Peterson. Start WR Bernard Berrian, and TE Desmond Clark could have a nice game here.

Tennessee @ New Orleans

New Orleans is a mess. They aren’t giving Deuce McAllister the ball, Reggie Bush plays running back like a punt returner, and no receiver other than Marques Colston seems interested in excelling. Look for them to get back on track eventually, but the solid Tennessee defense won’t make it easy for them. I’d continue to start Deuce and Bush. Drew Brees and Colston are also starts. I was high on Devery Henderson coming into the season, but he dropped three passes last week, including a touchdown, and was benched for the second half. I’m not starting any Saints receivers other than Colston until this offense remembers how to play. For Tennessee, Vince Young is a solid play. My impression this season has been that Jeff Fisher wants to give the ball to LenDale White more than Chris Brown, so White is the stronger play. WR Brandon Jones is also a decent play, although the Titans’ passing game can be unpredictable.