CRUCIAL FF DECISIONS

By Ralph Mancini, NFL Draft Bible

Decisions, decisions, decisions- is the name of the game in fantasy football drafts. Trying to determine which running back is most worthy of the dreaded third overall pick will undoubtedly be the source of many restless nights for several drafters this summer.

I’ve recently been burdened with the third pick in one of my money leagues, which holds its draft in two weeks.

With LaDanian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson off the board, there are a myriad of options to choose from.

Looking at your own rankings cheatsheet in this type of situation serves of little to no use. Overall rankings don’t tell you all you need to know about all of the possible pitfalls that lie ahead when picking player A or B.

After a couple of days of careful deliberation, I’ve narrowed down my choices to Larry Johnson, Frank Gore and Joseph Addai.

In addition to the fact that all three of them are under 30-years-old, each one of them authored dominating performances in 2006.

Who could forget Addai’s 171-yard, four TD masterpiece versus the Eagles?

I certainly can’t since I was the one who traded him for Thomas Jones only a week before and lost out on a win and 35 points…but I digress.

By the same token, all three come with major question marks, which in my eyes, put them all on equal footing.

In the case of Larry Johnson, I don’t see his recently resolved holdout being a negative for the 6’1, 228-pound bruiser.

If anything, two weeks of rest from the physical grind of training camp will probably do him some good in light of his 416 rushing attempts last season.

What really worries me about the former Nittany Lion is the team around him.

The coaching staff seems dead set on going with neophyte Brodie Croyle at quarterback, who thus far hasn’t looked all that sharp, throwing ill-advised interceptions in the preseason.

Add to that, the lack of a proven downfield threat at receiver, the retirement of future Hall of Fame guard Will Shields and the loss of left tackle Damion McIntosh to a knee injury and you can see what I’m driving at.

If things don’t get better in a hurry, Johnson won’t find too many cracks or crevices to squeeze through and with a treacherous early schedule including Chicago, the run-stuffing Minnesota Vikings, San Diego and Jacksonville, that’s a problem.

On the plus side, however, Johnson is one of the strongest backs in the league who has avoided major injury, despite absorbing constant punishment with his hard charging, full contact style of running.

Frank Gore isn’t as big as Johnson, but he makes up for that with his exceptional elusiveness.

His 5.4 yards-per-carry last year was tops among lead backs and with an already formidable offensive line only getting stronger with the presence of stud rookie Joe Staley, Gore could be looking at even more daylight in the coming months.

The 49ers should also see improvements from their skill position players, as heady quarterback Alex Smith has another year under his belt and Darrell Jackson gives them the proven receiver they’ve lacked since the departure of Terrell Owens.

So where’s the downside? It all boils down to injuries.

Along with tearing up ACL’s in both knees during his collegiate years, the 5’9, 215-pound dynamo has also endured multiple shoulder surgeries. Did I mention that he’s currently recovering from a broken hand?

Colts running back Joseph Addai is the youngest and least accomplished of the trio, but don’t use that against him when deciding where to rank the former LSU product.

Addai is a more than capable feature back even though he split time with Dominic Rhodes last season.

While only averaging 16 touches per game, Addai still ran for 1,081 yards with 325 additional yards receiving.

The departure of Rhodes to the Raiders means that the 24-year old will be the main man in the Colts backfield, which should translate into about at least 22 to 24 touches per contest. A 1,800-yard season in the high octane Indianapolis offense may be in the offing for the speedy Addai.

What we don’t know is exactly how much Addai will be used since coach Tony Dungy has always stated his preference for employing some sort of time share which may see Addai and backup DeDe Dorsey moving towards a 75/25 split.

Addai has also had his share of injury woes including knee troubles in college, which saw him undergo cartilage removal during his sophomore year.

Presented with all the aforementioned facts, I almost went with Larry Johnson due to his sturdy frame and relatively injury-free past.

Unfortunately for LJ, success in football is achieved collectively. One man alone does not turn the Rich Kotite Jets into the Bill Walsh 49ers.

Without a representative supporting cast around him, Johnson may see a dip in his production.

On the other side of the spectrum, Addai has an excellent group of athletes surrounding him- maybe too good.

The considerable amount of talent on the Colts may prevent the explosive runner from achieving the numbers expected from a number three overall pick.

That leaves me with Gore. The upside here is tremendous considering he put up over 2,000 combined yards, while missing parts of games and going through his personal fumbling travails during the early portion of 2006.

Coach Mike Nolan has already said that Gore will see an up-tick in carries this year, which leads me to proclaim him as my third pick- injuries and all.