By Brad Kurtzberg, Fantasy Football Insiders
Chicago Bears—It will take nothing short of a miracle to get the Bears into this year’s playoffs. After Thursday night’s loss to Washington, the defending NFC champs are 5-8 with remaining games at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay and vs. New Orleans. The Bears would need to run the table and get plenty of help to sneak in as the second Wild Card team. Trust me, it won’t happen.
Brian Griese threw two costly picks against the Redskins on back-to-back plays. It seems that no matter who is behind center, Chicago’s offense is inconsistent and turnover prone. Griese hasn’t turned out to be that much better than Rex Grossman, having thrown 12 picks in seven starts. Regardless of how serious Grossman’s injury is, the Bears need to address the quaterback position in the offseason as neither Grossman nor Griese appear to be the answer. Griese is more valuable as a backup if the team wants him to stay.
Two reasons for Brian Urlacher’s mediocre season (by his standards) this year: his arthritic back and the lack of a strong defensive line. Urlacher is not very big and he has trouble shedding blocks if offensive linemen can get to him. Last year, Tank Johnson and the other Bears linemen kept Urlacher free to make plays. This year, the defensive line is not doing nearly as good a job of occupying blockers and they are finding ways to block Urlacher…The Bears continue to struggle to run the ball. Adrian Peterson’s stats are very Cedric Benson-like. The bottom line is that the offensive line is not opening many holes and the running backs the Bears have are not good enough to make something out of nothing.
Meanwhile, Devin Hester had a season-high five receptions on Thursday against Washington. The Bears would be wise to get him more involved in the offense. He and Bernard Berrian would make a good pair of deep threats…Chicago has benched safety Adam Archuleta. The free agent signee has had trouble in pass coverage all season and has also taken poor tackling angles when defending the run. Unfortunately for the Bears, his replacement, Brandon McGowan, hasn’t done much better and continues to make mental mistakes.
Detroit Lions—WR Roy Williams is likely out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. That hurts the Lions because Williams remains their best deep threat and most reliable receiver. Still, this gives rookie Calvin Johnson a chance to shine. The second overall pick in last year’s draft has shown flashes but seems to be having trouble learning the complex Mike Martz offense. It’s not unusual for recievers to struggle in the NFL as rookies. These last four games should give Detroit’s coaching staff a better idea of how far Johnson has progressed this season
CB LaMarcus Hicks is also out for the season after breaking his ankle against the Vikings. The Lions lack depth in their secondary to begin with and Hicks’ absence will hurt them further…From the it’s probably not a coincidence department: Detroit’s six wins have come against teams with a combined .458 winning percentage. During their recent four-game losing streak, they have played teams with a winning percentage of .625…
Detroit’s biggest problem offensively is on the offensive line. OT George Foster has been playing poorly, G Blaine Saipaia has been forced to play tackle at times and Jonathan Scott has missed substantial time due to injury. Guard Damien Woody has been playing tackle as well. He’s done a workmanlike job but he’s no long term solution. The offensive line has had trouble pass protecting and opening holes for the run
Jon Kitna has been affected by the constant pressure he has been under. In the last three games, he has thrown only 3 TDs and 5 INTs. Kitna’s as tough as they come but the constant punishment he has taken this season is taking its toll.
Potential mismatch this week against Dallas: CB Fernando Bryant against Terrell Owens. Bryant is questionable for the game with a foot injury. The Lions would have trouble matching up against Owens and TE Jason Witten even if their secondary was healthy. Unfortunately, they are banged up. Unless the Lions get pressure on Tony Romo, the secondary could be in for a long day.
Green Bay Packers—Brett Favre is expected to start his 250th consecutive regular season game Sunday against the Raiders. That’s a good thing because backup Aaron Rogers, who played well against the Cowboys when Favre got hurt, is unavailable for at least the next two games due to an hamstring injury. The Pack signed former backup Craig Nall, recently released by Buffalo, to be Favre’s backup
Charles Woodson and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila are still game-time decisions on Sunday. The Pack would not be wise to rush either back. KGB is more likely to start than Woodson is…The key for the Pack defensively this week will be to slow down RBs Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan. The Raiders have trouble passing the football consistently but they are one of the top running teams in the league. The Pack must stay in their lanes and prevent big running plays
Ryan Grant has been a perfect fit for the Pack at RB. He gives the team a threat of the run but doesn’t seem to need a lot of carries to pick up big yards. Grant is a one-cut runner who finds holes and quickly exploits them
The Packers need some contribution from first round pick Justin Harrell down the stretch. With two members of their DT rotation (Johnny Jolly and Colin Cole) out with injuries, Harrell will get playing time. So far, he has not even been dressed for games unless injuries made it necessary. He also appears to be slow to pick up the team’s defensive scheme
A win over the Raiders would clinch the NFC North for the Packers regardless of what Detroit or Minnesota do…WR Donald Driver needs 102 yards to top the 1,000 yard mark for the fourth straight season. Driver just passed Hall of Famer Don Hutson for third on the Packers all-time receptions list with 490. He needs 105 to tie Sterling Sharpe for first all-time
Safeties Atari Bigby and Nick Collins are both weak in coverage. The Pack has had trouble covering TEs partially due to this problem. Bigby also takes too many interference calls which have been hurtful to the Pack..
Minnesota Vikings—One reason for the Vikings recent winning streak is the improved play of QB Tarvaris Jackson. While Jackson is still not the kind of QB who will win games for you with his arm, he is becoming an efficient and effective passer. During his last three games, Jackson has completed nearly 79 percent of his passes and his decision making has improved. He is now more able to go through his progressions and find secondary receivers. Jackson has four games left to show the Vikings’ coaching staff that he is worthy of being their QB of the future
DE Erasmus James is out for the season with a knee injury. DE Ray Edwards has been suspended for four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. The loss of those two players leaves Minnesota thin at DE. The Vikings just might get CB Antoine Winfield back for Sunday’s game in San Francisco. Winfield’s presence would really be a boost to the secondary
With Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, the Vikings may have the most explosive RB duo in the league. If healthy and given enough carries, Peterson is capable of gaining 2,000 yards on the ground in a season while Taylor can surpass 1,500. The two complement each other well and make life hard for opposing defenses
The Vikings’ schedule down the stretch is not too bad. After playing San Francisco this week, they finish by hosting Chicago on Monday night, hosting Washington and traveling to Denver.
Friday, December 7, 2007
The Stock Report
By The Fantasy Trader, NFL Draft Bible
The pressure of playoff football is upon us. My audience is among the elite this week and should be proud of their accomplishment. For many, the year is over…but for our privileged readers this week, the second season has arrived. The wrong start or the right sit will determine your season. It is a time of stress, but other owners would line up to take your place. Congratulations to all the playoff teams. Let the game of survival begin.
RB Jesse Chatman – is expected to play despite an ankle injury and if so, he matches up nicely against the Bills. The Bills have the 22nd –ranked run defense and are allowing 116.4 yards per game. In week 10, Chatman ran for 124 yards against Buffalo.
RB Kolby Smith – is everything a Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes owner could ask for. I hope you all got him. He has been solid in his first two career starts and has a great opponent in the Denver Broncos this week. The Broncos rank 31st against the run and are giving up 149 yards per game.
RB Frank Gore – will not make up for what he did to you in the regular season. He managed only 58 yards against a poor Carolina defense. The 49ers are still struggling with Dilfer at QB and this week they have to face a hungry Vikings defense. Minnesota has the best run defense in the league.
RB Ron Dayne- was the playoff MVP of 2006. He was scooped off the wire and preceded to run for 334 yards and 5 TD from weeks 14-16. I would not expect the same this year. He has been solid for Ahman Green owners, but he gets a stingy Bucs defense this week. The Bucs have allowed just one rushing TD in the last four weeks.
QB Donovan McNabb- should start this week for the Eagles. If you throw out the game that he got hurt, McNabb has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points just three times. The last time he faced the Giants he was sacked 12 times, but that was also with a rookie on the offensive line and no Brian Westbrook. I expect a big game from McNabb.
QB Jay Cutler- is starting to get his weapons back for the holiday season. Travis Henry will not be suspended and Jevon Walker has returned. I expect a big game from Brandon Marshall. The Chiefs look like they may have mailed it in this season, especially when your secondary makes Duante Culpepper look like he is still wearing a Vikings uniform.
WR Roddy White- has been the steal of the season. He has put up solid numbers with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. White clicked instantly with Chris Redman and finished with 10 catches for 146 yards and a TD. Now he gets a full week of practice with Redman.
WR Bryant Johnson- is a great sleeper play this week. He filled in nicely for Larry Fitzgerald last week and will get another opportunity this week. Even if Fitzgerald plays, it looks as if Anquan Boldin, who sprained his toe last week, will not. Johnson faces an average Seahawks pass defense.
DE-Vikings- defense benefits so much from the offense’s ability to run the football. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor eat up clock and provide the rest the defense needs. It also helps to play the 49ers this week. I expect multiple sacks and turnovers with a defensive TD.
TE Antonio Gates- will never have as bad of a game as he did last week. Gates had one catch for minus one yard. Yikes! I expect him to bounce back in a big way against the Titans. The man has pride right?
The pressure of playoff football is upon us. My audience is among the elite this week and should be proud of their accomplishment. For many, the year is over…but for our privileged readers this week, the second season has arrived. The wrong start or the right sit will determine your season. It is a time of stress, but other owners would line up to take your place. Congratulations to all the playoff teams. Let the game of survival begin.
RB Jesse Chatman – is expected to play despite an ankle injury and if so, he matches up nicely against the Bills. The Bills have the 22nd –ranked run defense and are allowing 116.4 yards per game. In week 10, Chatman ran for 124 yards against Buffalo.
RB Kolby Smith – is everything a Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes owner could ask for. I hope you all got him. He has been solid in his first two career starts and has a great opponent in the Denver Broncos this week. The Broncos rank 31st against the run and are giving up 149 yards per game.
RB Frank Gore – will not make up for what he did to you in the regular season. He managed only 58 yards against a poor Carolina defense. The 49ers are still struggling with Dilfer at QB and this week they have to face a hungry Vikings defense. Minnesota has the best run defense in the league.
RB Ron Dayne- was the playoff MVP of 2006. He was scooped off the wire and preceded to run for 334 yards and 5 TD from weeks 14-16. I would not expect the same this year. He has been solid for Ahman Green owners, but he gets a stingy Bucs defense this week. The Bucs have allowed just one rushing TD in the last four weeks.
QB Donovan McNabb- should start this week for the Eagles. If you throw out the game that he got hurt, McNabb has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points just three times. The last time he faced the Giants he was sacked 12 times, but that was also with a rookie on the offensive line and no Brian Westbrook. I expect a big game from McNabb.
QB Jay Cutler- is starting to get his weapons back for the holiday season. Travis Henry will not be suspended and Jevon Walker has returned. I expect a big game from Brandon Marshall. The Chiefs look like they may have mailed it in this season, especially when your secondary makes Duante Culpepper look like he is still wearing a Vikings uniform.
WR Roddy White- has been the steal of the season. He has put up solid numbers with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. White clicked instantly with Chris Redman and finished with 10 catches for 146 yards and a TD. Now he gets a full week of practice with Redman.
WR Bryant Johnson- is a great sleeper play this week. He filled in nicely for Larry Fitzgerald last week and will get another opportunity this week. Even if Fitzgerald plays, it looks as if Anquan Boldin, who sprained his toe last week, will not. Johnson faces an average Seahawks pass defense.
DE-Vikings- defense benefits so much from the offense’s ability to run the football. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor eat up clock and provide the rest the defense needs. It also helps to play the 49ers this week. I expect multiple sacks and turnovers with a defensive TD.
TE Antonio Gates- will never have as bad of a game as he did last week. Gates had one catch for minus one yard. Yikes! I expect him to bounce back in a big way against the Titans. The man has pride right?
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