FFI EXCLUSIVE: FANTASY ALERT!

FANTASY ALERT: MOSS, PATS WIDE OUTS OVERRATED
By Brad Kurtzberg, NFL Draft Bible

This off-season, the New England Patriots made a lot of noise by acquiring a new receiving corps, headed by former Raiders and Vikings standout Randy Moss. The Patriots also added Dante Stallworth and Wes Welker to give them one of the strongest group of wide outs in the NFL. Fantasy football owners have been drooling at the prospect of getting one of these receivers on their roster, but be careful: the Patriots receivers may be one of the best groups in the league, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will translate over into productive fantasy numbers.

Let’s face it, even with Tom Brady at quarterback, there’s only one football and only one player can catch it on any given play. As a result, New England may have one of the most prolific pass offenses in recent memory, but the only fantasy beneficiary may be Brady himself. It’s not that the receivers won’t put up good numbers, but don’t expect them to be much higher than their recent career averages. Don’t get caught up in the hype and draft these guys too soon.

We will be monitoring this situation during training camp as each of these three new faces has issues to deal with. As talented as Randy Moss is, he also causes problems for a lot of teams, including his own. Moss gets unhappy when his team is losing or if he feels he isn’t getting the ball enough (which is almost always). He has been known to loaf on the field, to take plays off or even to leave a game early. Bill Belichick is a no-nonsense coach, so it’s likely at some point this year that sparks will fly. Will Moss really change and fit in rather than stick out? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it all being smooth sailing. If he stays healthy and keeps his mind on the game, Moss can still catch 70-80 passes and 10 touchdowns, but the days of 100+ catches and 17 touchdowns are probably a thing of the past.

Donte Stallworth is a great deep threat with blinding speed and he instantly upgraded the Patriots receiving corps. However, there is one problem that seems to haunt Stallworth; staying healthy. Some scouts say that Stallworth runs so fast, he pops his own hamstrings. In his five-year NFL career, the Tennessee alum has only played an entire season twice. If he can prove to stay healthy, Stallworth could match his career-high of 70 catches but that is a mighty big “if”. He will not be the number one receiver on the field (Moss will be), which means he will not be the first option on most plays, which also means he will not be facing the opposition’s top corner most of the time either. Stallworth will do just fine if he stays on the field, but don’t expect his statistics to take a huge jump.

Wes Welker may be the least affected by his new team and new role. He will continue to be the third receiver and will line up in the slot on obvious passing downs. Welker should thrive with a better quarterback to get him the ball than what he had in Miami. Last season he had 67 catches with just one touchdown. That number will probably go up a bit, but don’t expect it to jump past five. Unless you are in a league that gives a decent number of points for catches and yards, Welker has limited fantasy value.

New England also recently re-signed WR/CB Troy Brown. Brown may have to fight to make the roster, but he is a smart veteran who knows Belichick’s system and has the confidence of Tom Brady. There will be some role for Brown if he makes the team.

The Patriots also have tight ends Ben Watson and David Thomas, both of whom are quality receivers. Last season, Watson caught 49 passes and Thomas 11. The tight ends may see their roles reduced with the new talent at wideout, but don’t expect them to disappear entirely. Kevin Faulk will also make his share of receptions out of the backfield.

On the field, the New England Patriots will benefit greatly because of their new receiving corps. Fantasy owners, however, will probably see the biggest benefit go to Tom Brady and only a small increase for players like Moss, Stallworth and Welker. By all means, take the Patriots receivers…just don’t take them too soon.

Brad Kurtzberg is a Senior Writer for the NFL Draft Bible and author of “Shorthanded: The Untold Story of the Seals: Hockey’s Most Colorful Team”

Email: Brad@nfldraftbible.com