FFI: FIRE & ICE REPORT

FIRE & ICE Report - Week 9

Thursday, November 1st, 2007


This week’s update of players who are hot (on “Fire”) and their value or “stock is rising” and those who are not (“Ice” cold) and have their value or “stock falling.”

FIRE

No other player in the history of the NFL has ever had a start to their season like the season that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is enjoying.

Brady is Mr. En Fuego!
Through his first eight games of the 2007 season Brady has thrown 30 touchdowns (his career high) and passed for over 300 yards in a game four times this season. Brady has passed for a total of 2,431 yards (303.8-yds/gm) while completing 198 of 267 passes (74%). Brady is on pace to pass for over 4800 yards and 60 touchdowns this season. He has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in every game this season and his current passer rating of 136.2 leads the NFL and is at a record setting mark.

Quarterbacks on the rise…..

Quietly over the past several weeks the Saints quarterback Drew Brees has been playing much like he did a year ago, when he led the Saints to the top of the NFC South and just one game away from the Superbowl. In his last three starts Brees has passed for 781 yards (260.3-yds/gm) and thrown a total of 8 touchdowns. Brees is also completing over 70 percent of his passes (78-109, 71.5%) during that span.
Take:
This week may present a tough match-up for the Saints and Brees, when they meet the Jaguars 19th ranked pass defense. Expect Brees to continue his strong run when he faces Jacksonville’s secondary that has allowed 23 pass plays of 20 yards or more.

The Steelers are rolling along this season and the recent play of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been a big part. In his last two games Big Ben has passed for 520 yards (260-yds/gm) and tossed a total of 6 touchdowns while completing 70 percent of his passes (43 of 61).
Take:
The Steelers have a Big Monday Night Showdown match up when they meet the Ravens. The Ravens have the 9th ranked pass defense, but they have surrendered 22 pass plays of 20 yards or more including 6 plays of over 40 yards (most in the league). Expect to see Big Ben look downfield often and try to hit the big plays.

Running backs on the rise…..

The Giants running back Brandon Jacobs has been running hard of late with great success. In his last four games Jacobs has rushed for 424 yards (106-yds/gm) on 74 carries. Jacobs is averaging 57 yards per carry over his last four games and has scored twice to lead the Giants running attack.
Take:
With the bye week ahead, Jacobs will have a chance to further heal and be ready to continue his tear into the second half of the season.

The Tennessee Titans have seemed to have found their feature back in running back LenDale White. In his past three games White has carried the ball 77 times for a total of 301 yards rushing (100-yds/gm). White has scored twice over his last three games and is averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Take:
White is averaging 25 plus carries per game and will get plenty of chances on Sunday against the Panthers 19th ranked run defense. White could top the century mark on Sunday as well as reach pay dirt against a defense that has surrendered 7 rushing touchdowns (tied for 7th most) this season.


Players on the “Hot Watch” list….

· QB Tony Romo heads into week 9 with 16 touchdowns this season.
· QB Derek Anderson has thrown 17 touchdowns this year.
· QB Peyton Manning has passed for 767 yards in his last three games.
· RB Willie Parker has topped 100 yards in two of his last three starts.
· RB Selvin Young totaled 120 yards on Monday Night
· RB Brian Westbrook scored twice last week.
· WR Randy Moss has scored 11 times this season.
· WR TJ Houshmandzadeh has 9 touchdowns this season.
· WR Wes Welker has caught 29 passes in his last three games.
· WR Hines Ward scored two times last week.

ICE

Quarterbacks with their stock falling….

The Titans continue to win, despite the mediocre passing numbers from quarterback Vince Young. In his last three games, Young has only totaled 319 yards (106.3-yds/gm) and thrown 4 interceptions.
Take:
The Titans are doing it with defense and their running game, as long the formula continues to work, don’t expect Head Coach Jeff Fischer to make any changes to his game plan or ask Young to carry the brunt.

Time for a change in New York as the Jets will bench quarterback Chad Pennington and try their hand at the youth movement. Pennington did little over the last couple of weeks to make his case as the starter. Over the last five weeks, Pennington has thrown 7 interceptions to only 5 touchdowns.
Take:
The Jets have mustered only one win this season and need to now look to the future. With Clemens now the starter, Mangini is likely to give the young QB more slack and room for error, leaving Pennington on the sideline holding a clip-board.

Running backs with their stocks falling….

The Atlanta Falcons running back Warrick Dunn has seen his workload drop off over the past several weeks. Over his last three games Dunn is averaging only 12 touches per game for an average of 28 yards.
Take:
The Falcons other back Jerious Norwood is not fairing any better. It appears the teams struggling passing game is allowing opposing defenses to jam the line and put extra defenders in the box to stop the run. With Harrington at the helm, this trend is likely to continue until Joey can show he’s capable of making plays with his arm.

The Cowboys running back Julius Jones has been non-existent throughout most of this season. In his last three games, Jones has carried the ball only 27 times for a total of 120 rushing yards.
Take:
The Cowboys have another star grabbing the Rushing headlines and keeping up the ground game production. Marion Barber’s success will continue to tear into Jones’s time on the field.

Players on the “Possible-Drop” list….

· QB Tavaris Jackson passed for only 72 yards in his last game.
· QB Dante Culpepper passed for only 167 yards last week and will sit this week.
· RB Jamal Lewis has only rushed for more than 65 yards once this year.
· RB Tatum Bell has not played in his last two games.
· RB Chris Brown has missed the team’s last two games.
· WR Vincent Jackson had only one reception in his last two games.
· WR Donald Driver has only 117 receiving yards in his last three games.

Check back next week for more from the FFI Fire & Ice Report!

By David G. Ortega