Week 12 Preview

By Brad Kurtzberg, Fantasy Football Insiders

First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone reading this column and their families. This is my favorite holiday. What could be bad with food, family and football? There are now three games on Thursday with the NFL Network bringing a limited number of households the matchup between Indianapolis and Atlanta. As we begin the home stretch of the NFL season, keep a lookout for key injuries that affect entire teams like Albert Haynesworth’s injury that has hurt the Titans’ defense. Here is a look at this week’s matchups which will help you win your fantasy league.

Thursday 12:30 PM ET

Green Bay at Detroit
The most traditional Turkey Day rivalry features these two NFC North teams. Detroit-Green Bay brings back memories of Starr, Hornung, Karris and Night Train Lane in the 60s. Oh how Vince Lombardi hated the short week that preceded a road game in Detroit. This year, the game has playoff implications with the Pack 9-1 and the Lions 6-4. Detroit is facing a must-win here as Green Bay would take a four-game lead in the division with five games to play if it wins here. The Lions have lost two straight. Both teams are eager to show their stuff on a national stage. If you want to see a great game within the game matchup, watch Packers CB Al Harris battle Lions WR Roy Williams. It promises to be a great, physical confrontation.

Stud: Brett Favre, QB Green Bay. The Lions to force a lot of turnovers, but they also give up a lot of yards. Their secondary is ranked 30th in the league. Most importantly, the Lions third and fourth CBs can’t stay with the Packers’ depth at WR. Look for Favre to have a big day on Sunday, even if he throws a pick or two.
Dud: Kevin Jones, RB Detroit. Jones has been hampered by a foot injury that cost him limited him to 21 yards on 15 carries total in the last two games. The Packers have a good run defense and the Lions shy away from the run too quickly.
Sleeper: Jon Kitna, QB Detroit. Kitna will be under pressure throughout the game but he figures to throw 40-45 passes and will put up good fantasy numbers before the game is over.


Thursday 4:15 PM ET

N.Y. Jets at Dallas
The Jets surprised everybody by shocking the Steelers a week ago at Giants Stadium. Dallas is coming off three straight division games with next week’s game against Green Bay looming on the horizon. Is this a let down game for the Cowboys? I doubt it, but the Jets certainly are not going to roll over and die. The Jets found both a pass rush and a running game last week against Pittsburgh, but can they find a way to contain Terrell Owens and Tony Romo?

Stud: Terrell Owens, WR Dallas. The Jets don’t have a CB who can match up with Owens who should have a big day on national television. Owens has a four inch and 20 pound advantage over rookie CB Darrelle Revis who will face his toughest test yet in the mercurial T.O. If the Jets leave the rookie one-on-one with Owens, expect a big day for the Cowboys WR.
Dud: Thomas Jones, RB N.Y. Jets. Jones had a big game a week ago against Pittsburgh but hasn’t been able to put together anything consistent. He has still yet to score a TD this season in 10 games. The Cowboys run defense ranks 4th in the league and they just added Tank Johnson to the mix to make it even tougher to run up the middle. If the Jets fall behind early, Jones will be even less of a factor.
Sleeper: Marion Barber, RB Dallas. It would be easy to go with Tony Romo here and it wouldn’t be wrong either, but Barber will be up against the 29th ranked run defense in the league on Thursday. Although he’s struggled in the past three games, look for Barber to get back on track in time for Thanksgiving dinner.


Thursday 8:15 PM ET

Indianapolis at Atlanta
The Colts have limped through their last few games after injuries to both of their offensive tackles, WR Marvin Harrison and TE Dallas Clark and many other players on offense have felled them. They eked out a win against Kansas City last week but their offense was nowhere near what it usually is. The Falcons were thrashed by the Bucs last week, ending their two game winning streak. Byron Leftwich was benched in favor of Joey Harrington who played fairly well in relief. Odds are that Harrington starts Thursday night. The Falcons hope the Colts malaise lasts at least one more week.

Stud: Joseph Addai, RB Indianapolis. Addai is the one thing the Colts can rely on when all else fails this season. Even playing behind a patchwork offensive line, Addai went over 100 total yards last week and added a TD. The Falcons run defense is ranked 25th in the league and they are not as strong up the middle since cutting Grady Jackson loose. In addition, both starting DTs, Trey Lewis and Rod Coleman, are nursing injuries and may not play.
Dud: Joey Harrington, QB Atlanta. Harrington played well in relief last week but the Colts have a strong pass defense, presently ranked 2nd in the league. Even without Dwight Freeney, Indy should be able to put some pressure on Joey Harrington. Harrington also lacks consistency and to expect him to play well two weeks in a row may be asking a lot.
Sleeper: Peyton Manning, QB Indianapolis. Manning has been off the past two games but gradually, he is getting his weapons back and should return to form. Atlanta is 29th in the league with just 14 sacks in 10 games. If they can’t pressure Manning, he will pick them apart.


Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee at Cincinnati
These former division rivals meet in a game that means a lot to the Titans who desperately need to recover after losing their last two games. Tennessee is still 6-4 and in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race, but they can’t afford to lose too many more games. The Bengals are a team in disarray. They have a lot of talent on offense but their defense can’t stop anybody and their coaching staff seems to have lost the players. DT Albert Haynesworth’s status is still up in the air for Tennessee. Without the big DT in the lineup, teams have been successful running right at the Titans.

Stud: LenDale White, RB Tennessee. White has had two bad games after three straight 100-plus yard games. The Titans run the ball more than any other team in the league and they will be going against the Bengals who 27th against the run. Look for White and Chris Brown to pound the ball effectively all day long.
Dud: Rudi Johnson, RB Cincinnati. Johnson hasn’t had a good fantasy game since week two. Injuries to him and his offensive line have really hampered him and he is splitting playing time with Kenny Watson. Watson and Johnson may do just fine if Albert Haynesworth is not playing or not up to par, but don’t expect Johnson to have a big fantasy performance.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB Cincinnati. The Titans defense is tough but Palmer is still one of the better QBs in the league. He has 18 TD passes in 10 games and has completed more than 66 percent of his passes in the last five games. Even if he throws a few picks in a comeback attempt, at the end of the day, Palmer puts up good fantasy numbers.

Houston at Cleveland
Cleveland’s near miraculous win last week in Baltimore gives them a 6-4 record and puts the Cinderella Browns right in the heart of the playoff chase. Houston has been very inconsistent this year but at 5-5, they can be a part of the playoff equation with a win, too. Cleveland is 4-1 at home but their defense is still struggling. Houston’s defense appears to be rounding into form and looked strong last week against the Saints.

Stud: Andre Johnson, WR Houston. Johnson finally returned to action for the first time since week 2 and was effective immediately. He has 20 catches for 4 TDs in three games this year and has topped the 100-yard mark in all three. He has a height and strength advantage on Cleveland’s CB Eric Wright who injured his knee last Sunday (check status) and should have a big day Sunday.
Dud: Ron Dayne, RB Houston. Dayne has played well the past two weeks but will have a tougher time running up the middle of the Browns’ defense which has improved of late.
Sleeper: Matt Schaub, QB Houston. Schaub faces a Cleveland pass defense ranked 31st in the league and he has his favorite and most dangerous receiver back in Andre Johnson. The Browns may also be without CB Eric Wright who is their best cover man. Look for Schaub to shine in Cleveland.

Buffalo at Jacksonville
The Bills had their winning streak abruptly halted by the Patriots while the Jags continued to roll along, defeating the Chargers handily to improve to 7-3. The Bills can make a statement by winning here although it is likely they will still be missing rookie RB Marshawn Lynch. The Jaguars are just a game behind the Colts in the AFC South.

Stud: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jacksonville. Jones-Drew is the better fantasy pick this week. The Bills run defense is ranked 22nd in the league and is particularly vulnerable up the middle. Running inside is Jones-Drew’s strong suit. The diminutive RB also have TDs in back-to-back games.
Dud: Anthony Thomas, RB Buffalo. Is Marshawn Lynch can’t go, the Bills will try to ride the “A-Train.” Thomas is not very nifty and runs best inside, right into the strength of the Jaguars’ defense. Thomas was an afterthought last week, but when you lose 56-10, most RBs are not going to get a lot of carries. This week, Thomas will remain a poor fantasy option.
Sleeper: Lee Evans, WR Buffalo. Evans is the top weapon in the Buffalo passing attack and the Jaguars give up a lot of yards through the air (27th in the league against the pass). Look for Evans and J.P. Losman to hook up for a few lengthy gains on Sunday.

New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints have dropped two straight after winning four in a row to get back to .500. If they didn’t play in the NFC South, their playoff hopes would be all but over. Carolina hasn’t been the same team without Jake Delhomme. Vinny Testaverde is a stopgap QB at best at this point in his career. At least the Panthers should have WR Steve Smith back. Without Smith, they had no explosive, big play weapons on offense last week.

Stud: Drew Brees, QB New Orleans. Brees is averaging 273 yards per game and has thrown at least one TD in the past six games. The Saints running game is average at best without Deuce McAllister, so Brees will be relied upon to carry the weight. He remains a good if not great fantasy option.
Dud: Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans. Bush has been a disappointment this year. When McAllister went down, he did not pick up the slack and prove himself to be an elite NFL RB. His best value is as a receiver out of the backfield but as a runner from scrimmage, he has proven average at best. Against the Panthers, look for Bush to again have more success as a receiver. If he doesn’t find the end zone, he will not be a good fantasy producer.
Sleeper: Steve Smith, WR Carolina. The Saints DBs are 28th against the pass. Even with Vinny Testaverde at QB, Smith should be the focus of the Panthers’ attack and should find himself open frequently against the vulnerable New Orleans defense.

Oakland at Kansas City
Both of these teams are fading fast. The Chiefs have dropped three in a row but in the AFC’s Mild, Mild West, they are just a game out of first place. In days past, this was a great AFL rivalry game. Where have you gone, Len Dawson, Otis Taylor, Willie Lanier, Darryl Lamonica, George Blanda, Ben Davidson…This game won’t be pretty. Oakland is trying to end a 17-game losing streak against division opponents.

Stud: Kansas City Defense. The Raiders have trouble moving the ball and the Chiefs defense did a good job shutting down the Colts last week. Kansas City is tied for 8th in the league in points allowed. How many points do you think Oakland can score?
Dud: Dante Culpepper, QB Oakland. Culpepper put up a lot of yards last week against the Vikings but the Chiefs pass defense is much better than the Minnesota’s. Don’t look for big numbers from Culpepper who will probably be wondering when JaMarcus Russell will be taking his job.
Sleeper: Kolby Smith, RB Kansas City. With the retirement of Priest Holmes and Larry Smith still out of the lineup with an injured foot, unheralded Kolby Smith becomes the man. Still, the Raiders can’t stop the run at all and even an unknown like Smith should pick up solid yards this week.

Washington at Tampa Bay
The Bucs are alone in first place in the NFC South while the Redskins have fallen to 5-5 after a few tough division losses including last week’s close call against Dallas. Joe Gibbs and company know they have to win on Sunday to keep their fading Wild Card hopes alive. Both of these teams win with defense first. Jason Campbell of Washington has been showing improvement in recent weeks.

Stud: Clinton Portis, RB Washington. Portis was a non-factor last week against Dallas, gaining only 36 yards. It’s very tough to pass on Tampa’s defense while against the run, they are only average. Portis topped the 100-yard mark the previous two games and should get back on track on Sunday against the Bucs.
Dud: Jason Campbell, QB Washington. Campbell is definitely making steady progress. In the last two games, he has thrown 5 TDs and just 1 INT and last week, he topped the 300-yard mark for the first time. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay has the league’s 3rd best pass defense. Campbell isn’t consistent yet but he’s getting better. This just isn’t the week to expect big things out of him.
Sleeper: Jeff Garcia, QB Tampa Bay. Garcia is a smart QB who will find ways to exploit the banged up Redskins secondary. Even though he only completed 10 passes last week, he had 2 TDs. Washington’s pass defense will fall victim to the veteran duo of Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard.

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants
The Giants rebounded with a big win over Detroit last Sunday and now look to stop the Vikings who edged the Raiders last week. The Vikings will most likely still be without rookie RB Adrian Peterson while the Giants are missing RB Brandon Jacobs. The big difference is that the Giants can move the ball consistently through the air while the Vikings are still struggling to do so.

Stud: Eli Manning, QB N.Y. Giants. Eli Manning is not an elite fantasy QB yet, but he has thrown 15 TDs in 10 games and will be facing the NFL’s worst pass defense. It’s very tough to run against the Vikings but Manning should be able to move the ball consistently through the air on Sunday.
Dud: Tarvaris Jackson, QB Minnesota. Jackson was very accurate last Sunday against Oakland but still only threw for 171 yards and did not throw a TD pass. The Giants lead the league in sacks and should force Jackson into some mistakes.
Sleeper: Chester Taylor, RB Minnesota. Taylor gained more than 200 total yards last week and scored 3 TDs. While the Giants have a better run defense than the lowly Raiders, Taylor will be the focal point of the Minnesota attack and should get plenty of touches on Sunday with solid if not spectacular results.

Seattle at St. Louis
It wasn’t long ago these two teams were meeting to decide the NFC title. The Seahawks are injury riddled but still lead the division at 6-4. The Rams have won two straight after starting 0-8 and are starting to find some consistency on offense after a rash of injuries decimated their offensive line and skill position players. The Rams would love nothing more than to play spoiler and hurt Seattle’s chances at the playoffs.

Stud: Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seattle. The Seahawks are a pass-first team, especially with Shaun Alexander still out of the lineup. Hasselbeck has also been consistent, throwing 2 TD passes in each of the last five games. The St. Louis defense doesn’t put much pressure on opposing QBs and is average at best. Look for Hasselbeck to have a good game.
Dud: Brian Leonard, RB St. Louis. With a healthy Steven Jackson back in the lineup, Leonard’s touches have diminished significantly. He is also nursing a minor groin injury. Don’t look for big numbers from him on Sunday.
Sleeper: Maurice Morris, RB Seattle. Morris has TDs in the last two games and has also gained 87 yards rushing each of the last two weeks. Look for similar results on Sunday.


Sunday 4:00 PM ET

San Francisco at Arizona
The Niners have lost eight straight and have the worst offense in the league. The Cards are a team moving in the right direction and have evened their record at 5-5. To stay in the Wild Card hunt, Arizona needs a win at home. Alex Smith is out and Trent Dilfer will start again for San Francisco.

Stud: Kurt Warner, QB Arizona. Warner has 5 TDs in his last two games and seems to be adjusting well to playing with his injured arm. He has plenty of weapons to throw to and will add to his numbers against the Niners this week.
Dud: Trent Dilfer, QB San Francisco. Dilfer has the thankless task of trying to make the San Francisco offense move. Arizona’s defense has been very opportunistic in recent weeks and has forced a lot of turnovers. San Francisco won’t explode for a lot of points.
Sleeper: Edgerrin James, RB Arizona. The Niners rank 24th against the run. While James has not gained a lot of yards the past few weeks, he has 2 TDs in the last 3 games and should find some running room against San Francisco as the Cards try to hold their lead.

Denver at Chicago
Both of these teams were expected to be contenders and both have been wildly inconsistent this season. The Broncos are tied for the lead in the AFC West despite being only 5-5. Chicago, last year’s NFL Super Bowl representative, has not gotten consistent play from their QBs and no longer has a dominating defense due mostly to injuries. Both teams need to win to keep themselves in the playoff picture.

Stud: Selvin Young, RB Denver. Young faces a Bears defense that is ranked 26th against the run. With Travis Henry held out of practice with a bad knee, Young should get most of the carries for Denver. The Broncos seemingly can run effectively with any RB back there. The Bears can’t seem to stop anybody from running.
Dud: Rex Grossman, QB Chicago. Grossman’s numbers weren’t so terrible last week against Seattle although he didn’t throw any TD passes. This week, he faces a tougher pass defense in Denver which features CBs Champ Bailey and Dre’ Bly.
Sleeper: Cedric Benson, RB Chicago. Benson showed flashes last week before the Bears stopped giving him the ball. He ran for 89 yards and a TD which gives him TDs in two straight games. The Denver run defense is 30th in the league. If Benson can ever have a good game statistically, this is it.

Baltimore at San Diego
The Ravens lost a game against Cleveland last week that they literally thought they had won after time expired in the 4th quarter. They are now 4-6 and fading fast from any remote hopes of making the playoffs. The Chargers wouldn’t be in much better shape if they weren’t in such a weak division. Both of these teams have been inconsistent underachievers this year.

Stud: Baltimore Defense. The Ravens defense is still ranked 6th overall and 2nd against the run. They seem to be built to stop the Chargers strengths and should have a good game if they can put pressure on Philip Rivers.
Dud: Kyle Boller, QB Baltimore. Boller threw for 279 yards last week against a weak Browns’ defense but only threw one TD. He faces a much better defense in San Diego, at least on paper. Boller is just not a fantasy stud.
Sleeper: Willis McGahee, RB Baltimore. San Diego is ranked 23rd against the run and McGahee is hot, having scored a TD in each of the last five games. He remains the focal point of the Baltimore attack.

Sunday 8:15 PM ET

Philadelphia at New England
Now it’s the Eagles turn to be sacrificial lambs against the mighty Pats. Too bad Philadelphia doesn’t have a healthy starting QB. Donovan McNabb says he will play but check his status to see if he can overcome a bruised thumb and a sprained ankle. New England will roll on national TV again.

Stud: Tom Brady, QB New England. Brady has 38 TD passes and has not thrown fewer than 3 TDs in any game. The Eagles pass defense is middle of the pack, but the Pats just have too many weapons.
Dud: Donovan McNabb, QB Philadelphia. If he is able to play, don’t look for a big game from McNabb. The Pats have 29 sacks, good for 4th in the league and are 5th in the NFL against the pass. McNabb has been inconsistent all year.
Sleeper: Randy Moss, WR New England. Moss had 4 TDs last week, has 16 on the season already and has at least one TD in every game except one this year. If you don’t play him and he’s on your roster, shame on you.

Monday 8:30 PM ET

Miami at Pittsburgh
The Dolphins are still looking for their first win of the year. They get the unenviable task of facing the Steelers in Pittsburgh (where they are 5-0) after they are coming off an embarrassing loss to the 2-8 Jets. The fact that the game is on national TV only adds to the Steelers desire to kick a little butt. Can the Dolphins pass the 76 Bucs and stay winless for the season? Stay tuned.

Stud: Willie Parker, RB Pittsburgh. The Dolphins are dead last in the league at stopping the run and Pittsburgh is a run-first offense. Parker should bounce back and go over the 1,000 yard mark for the season on Monday night.
Dud: John Beck, QB Miami. Beck will face a defense that blitzes from all over and is effective at disguising its coverages. That’s a tall order for a rookie making his second game, even if the Steelers don’t have Troy Polamalu in the lineup.
Sleeper: Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pittsburgh. “Big Ben” will be eager to bounce back from a poor showing against the Jets.