Thursday, November 8, 2007

WEEK TEN FANTASY PREVIEW

Buffalo @ Miami
J.P. Losman is usually pretty nasty. People pointed to his bomb to Lee Evans two weeks ago against the Jets and proclaimed him “back”, but those people didn’t seem to notice that he under-threw Evans, that Darelle Revis actually had his hands on the ball, and that Jets weirdo backup Abram Elam careened into Revis, releasing Evans and the ball from Revis’ grasp and allowing Evans to trot into the endzone. Good job, Losman. You’re a stud. But seriously, despite my disdain for him, Losman had a nice game against the inept Bengals, and will have a nice game against the inept Dolphins too. The same goes for Evans, who seems to be back if only because Losman bombs it to him a lot. Josh Reed is also a nice desperation play with Roscoe Parrish banged up. Derek Hagan got the most looks in Miami’s last game, but he and Marty Booker are both uninspiring with Cleo Lemon at QB. Keep an eye on top pick Ted Ginn, who caught a TD in their last game.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
This will be a true test for the Browns, who are lighting up opposing defenses. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow have been must-starts for weeks now, and Derek Anderson has been great. The Browns were blown out in Week 1 against the Steelers, but the offense has improved since then, and you can start Anderson. Jamal Lewis is a definite sit. Cleveland still can’t stop the pass, which means Roethlisberger is a must start here. Hines Ward has been very active since coming back from injury, and Santonio Holmes and even Nate Washington look to have solid games. Cleveland also allows almost a TD per game to TEs, so start Heath Miller as well.

Philadelphia @ Washington
Clinton Portis had 196 last week, but I give plenty of credit to the Jets for that one. Philly’s D is a different story, and Portis struggled in their last game with the Eagles. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El also have tough matchups. The Eagles’ WRs will also have a tough time. Reggie Brown seems to have arrived despite a rough game last week, but the Redskins are a tough defense.

Denver @ Kansas City
If the Packers can run on the Broncos, anyone can. My gut says Priest Holmes does more in this game than rookie Kolby Smith at RB. Smith has not been very active yet this year, and Priest got some carries last week. Dwayne Bowe has certainly cooled down for the last few weeks, and has a bad matchup against Champ Bailey, most likely. Travis Henry’s status remains in doubt. This will be a weekly headache with Mike Shanahan, so make sure you have Selvin Young ready to insert at the last second. Brandon Stokley has caught a TD in 2 of his last 3 games, and is a decent option if you need him.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
This could be another fantasy stinker. LenDale White has established himself, but will have trouble against Jacksonville’s stout run D. Vince Young is a good QB, but he is not startable in fantasy this year, and doesn’t use any of his receivers in a useful, predictable way. For Jacksonville, start MJD as usual, but Fred Taylor is a sit.

St. Louis @ New Orleans
Quinn Gray threw for 354 on the Saints. Quinn Gray. Marc Bulger has to have a good game here, doesn’t he? New Orleans is actually holding opposing runners to under 90 yards per game, but if Steven Jackson starts, you have to play him. Marques Colston has returned as Brees’ favorite target, but start David Patten and even Lance Moore if you need him in deeper leagues. All three should be productive here. Devery Henderson is over.

Atlanta @ Carolina
DeShaun Foster really looks like the only player with a good matchup in this game. I don’t want any part of Carolina’s passing game. Warrick Dunn finally had a 100 yard game last week, but Carolina stops the run fairly well. Roddy White is the only startable Falcons WR, but he also doesn’t have a great matchup.

Minnesota @ Green Bay
If there’s one thing I feel confident writing every week, it’s that the RB facing Minny will have a rough game. Sorry Ryan Grant. On the other hand, Brett Favre and his receivers will have a great day. Adrian Peterson is obviously amazing, but the more amazing he gets, the worse things look for Chester Taylor. The Packers are good against the run anyway, so sit him.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Everyone’s throwing on the Ravens right now, and Cincinnati should follow suit. I’d sit both Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson if you can afford to, but start everyone in their passing game. The Ravens’ offense is abysmal right now, and Steve McNair looks way way over the hill, but he has a chance to turn it on again in this game. I wouldn’t count on it, but if, say, you have Tom Brady on bye, and are really desperate for a spot start, you can gamble on McNair.

Dallas @ New York Giants
Patrick Crayton has all but disappeared of late, and Terrell Owens got 12 of the 13 looks to WRs in their last game. He and Witten are dominating, so keep Crayton on your bench for now. Noteworthy was a goal line carry for Julius Jones last week, in which he scored, but don’t expect this to be a trend. Eli Manning has suffered from a very effective run game the last few weeks, but Dallas can stop the run. Eli will have to move the ball through the air in this one, which means lots of jump balls to Burress, and even some looks for Amani Toomer.

Chicago @ Oakland
In writing this column, I am often put in the difficult position of having to recommend players that I hate. I did it earlier with J.P. Losman (ugh). I’m tempted to do it again here with Cedric Benson, the bustiest bust of a Chicago RB since Curtis Enis and Rashaan Salaam (that is busty company), but I won’t. Benson looks as though he has little interest in playing, and if he couldn’t run on Detroit 2 weeks ago I have no reason for optimism here. In a face-saving move reminiscent of the great tandem of James Dolan and Isiah Thomas (my Knicks are a disgrace…), Bears GM Jerry Angelo stated publicly that he was happy with Benson’s progress thus far. It’s nice that he’s supporting his boy here, but come on. Come. On. So, to summarize: do not start Cedric Benson. They must be close to giving the other Adrian Peterson a shot, right? Justin Fargas has become the feature back in Oakland, and has a great matchup against the curiously porous Bears.

Detroit @ Arizona
Kurt Warner is another QB to look at for Tom Brady’s bye week. Arizona had a terrible game last week, but they face Detroit this week. Start Edgerrin James as well. Start all your usual Lions including Kevin Jones, who has officially arrived, and is no longer a reluctant start for me. This has the potential to be an offensive explosion, so get these guys in your lineups.

Indianapolis @ San Diego
Joseph Addai looked unstoppable last week, and Kenton Keith is even more officially not a threat. If Marvin Harrison doesn’t play, Aaron Moorehead will start in place of the injured Anthony Gonzalez. Moorehead isn’t all that inspiring, but he is a man receiving Peyton Manning passes. Chris Chambers is definitely receiving most of the WR targets for San Diego, but Indy doesn’t allow much to opposing receivers.

San Francisco @ Seattle
San Fran is bad this year in just about every way. Frank Gore looks like another game-time decision, but he’s been really lame this season anyway. Maurice Hicks scored last week has a decent matchup here if he gets the start. Vernon Davis is also improving, and is becoming a reliable start. Seattle is slowly getting its receivers back, but Bobby Engram keeps producing. He is looking like he’ll remain reliable as a possession receiver, and PPR leaguers in particular need to keep starting him. D.J. Hackett had a solid return with 6 catches and a TD, and is looking like a solid play going forward, including this week.

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